The Key Question for Dell Demps, and All of Us, This Summer

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Published: May 12, 2011

There are lots of easy ways to deviate for from reality when “playing Hornet’s GM” and concocting “fantasy trades” this summer:

 

–        ignore the cap or player salaries,

 

–        trade an existing Hornets player in a deal the other team won’t ever make,

 

–        only roster 13 or 14 players, or

 

–        fill out the roster with unnamed players at the  league minimum salary.  

 

       

I don’t see any of these things happening for a variety of reasons.  So I challenge you to play “Hornet’s GM” without any of these tricks.  When you do, your opportunities for upgrading the Hornets roster boil down to one crucial question which I have listed in bold at the end.  But first here are the facts and assumptions.

 

The Hornets have five players returning whose salaries total $42.2M and average $8.45M/player for 2011-12. 

 

Paul             $16.4M

Okafor         $12.5M

Ariza            $  6.9M

Jack             $  5.2M

Pondexter     $  1.2M

                    $42.2M

 

These players’ salaries are all reasonable for their performance.  Okafor’s salary is the most out of line, but assume not enough to get traded.  So the Hornet’s won’t trade any players.

 

Assuming a 15 player roster and a 2011-12 hardcap/tax line of $70M; that averages to $4.67M/player/team.  So the ten players on the rest of the Hornet’s roster must average $2.78M/player.

 

Assume DWest’s signs for $7.5M and Landry, who the Hornet’s brass strongly say they want to resign, at say $5.3M in 2011-12, that mean salaries total $55M and average $7.86M/player.

 

West            $  7.5M

Landry          $  5.3M

Paul             $16.4M

Okafor         $12.5M

Ariza            $  6.9M

Jack             $  5.2M

Pondexter     $  1.2  

                    $55.0

 

 

That means the remaining eight players’ salaries must average $1.9M/player.  So for everyone playing at around $3M, you need a player playing at slightly below $1M in 2011-12 to “balance” his salary out.

 

Assume Mbenga, Ewing, Jr, and the 45rd overall pick play for a combined $2.5M in 2011-12.  (You can assume others, but I think these three are most likely.  Either way, the Hornets have to have three players playing for a total of $2.5M)

 

Mbenga        $  1.0M

Ewing, Jr      $   0.75M

45rd  Pick     $   0.75M

West            $  7.5M

Landry          $  4.3M

Paul             $16.4M

Okafor          $12.5M

Ariza            $  6.9M

Jack             $  5.2M

Pondexter     $  1.2M

                    $56.5M

 

Now the remaining five players’ salaries can average $2.7M.  I say Belinelli and Gray are to too valuable not to sign at around $3M each.  To make the math easy, let’s put Belinelli in at his qualifying offer $3.4 and Gray in at $2.6.

 

Belinelli        $   3.4M

Gray            $   2.6M

Mbenga        $  1.0M

Ewing, Jr      $   0.75M

45rd  Pick     $  0.75M

West            $  7.5M

Landry          $  4.3M

Paul             $16.4M

Okafor         $12.5M

Ariza            $  6.9M

Jack             $  5.2M

Pondexter     $  1.2M

                    $62.5M

 

 

At this point this is what the Hornet’s depth chart looks like this:

 

PG:  Paul, Jack

 

SG:  Belinelli, Jack

 

SF:  Ariza, Pondexter, Ewing Jr.,

 

PF:  Landry, (West)

 

C:  Okafor, Gray, Mbenga

 

??:  45rd  Pick  [Can he really contribute anyway?] 

 

 

Smith and Green have the most tenuous roster spots, but the Hornets need players at their positions.  So let’s assume the Hornets can and do sign Smith and Green for an average of $2.0M each.

 

Smith          $   2.0M

Green          $   2.0M

Belinelli        $   3.4M

Gray            $   2.6M

Mbenga        $  1.0M

Ewing, Jr      $   0.75M

45rd  Pick     $  0.75M

West            $  7.5M

Landry          $  4.3M

Paul             $16.4M

Okafor         $12.5M

Ariza            $  6.9M

Jack             $  5.2M

Pondexter     $  1.2M

                    $66.5M

 

So you have about $3.5M left for player number 15.  Or, if you sign someone cheaper instead of Smith or Green, you have closer to $5M.  It’s your one shot to sign a free agent or obtain a player for a trade exemption.  Who is it, what do you pay them, how do you get them, and why do you get them?

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