It’s nothing new to hear that this off-season will be crazy. Teams will have something like 500 million dollars to spend across the league, and anyone who watches the NBA can tell you that in any given year, only a few teams have the patience to keep the powder dry if they can’t find a difference maker. They will spend that money on a guy probably not worth the cash – or if they are forward-thinking like Boston or Houston, will sign guys to short deals that are a little oversized, but can easily be traded because of their length and the fact they are attached to a guy who usually can play.
It does seem self-evident, however, that the Pelicans will not be a team keeping the powder dry this off-season. They will be moving to get better now. That may involve moving the pick. That probably will involve trades.
All of that will be fascinating, but I wanted to just take a moment and actually assess the teams who will be looking at the Free Agency market and see just who the Pelicans will be likely to be competing against for talent. First, a couple assumptions:
- $92 million is the Cap
- I went through all 29 other teams and adjusted cap numbers up for significant guys who will likely be coming back to that team next year. (LeBron, Wade) I ignored all the lesser guys, even though in this market they probably will command deals in the $3-5 million range and will actually make differences in cap space for some teams.
- I assume the Pelicans will be looking for a wing first and foremost. I don’t care if they pick a rookie at that spot, they should be going after a true wing this off-season. Therefore, I also ranked other team’s interest in acquiring a wing.
- The Pels are going to go big after a wing free agent, and not try to sign 3 low-price dudes. They want to win a press conference and give the team a boost.
Armed with those assumptions, I put the teams into the tiers you see below. Enjoy!
Teams we probably can Ignore
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Detroit Pistons
- San Antonio Spurs
- Toronto Raptors
Golden State will stand pat or swing for the Durant fences. They aren’t going to care about anything less than that. The Clippers and Cavs are in Cap hell, and the Spurs may have a little room if Timmy and Manu retire, but then, only about 8 mil, and they have pretty good wings. The Pistons have a little room – but will be looking to fill multiple positions before shooting over the cap when they sign Drummond. The Raptors have some room – but will have to re-sign DeMar DeRozan. So either they let him walk for a different wing – which is a net neutral to the Pels – or sign him and become unimportant.
Not super likely to be a player
- Miami Heat
- Atlanta Hawks
- Sacramento Kings
The Heat could go for a wing, but have Wade and Whiteside to appease(leaving Deng as a take it or leave it proposition) – plus have Winslow in the wings. So they are probably not likely to spend big on someone else. I have a hard time believing the Hawks will move on from Horford(the only way to get big space) – and if they do, they’ll be looking for a center/power forward type. They also need to worry about getting Bazemore or another wing – but will probably be looking to get cheaper sets of guys, not go big on a wing. I can’t entirely rule out the Kings because they are a bit nutty, but they don’t have much cap space and have traded the picks that could get them cap space. They are probably limited to making more edge moves. Besides, who is taking the Kings money?
Maaaaybe
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Chicago Bulls
- Washington Wizards
- Phoenix Suns
- Indiana Pacers
- Utah Jazz
Some of these teams could enter the conversation – but I just don’t see it as that likely. If OKC loses Durant – they probably will be in the market for a wing in an attempt to keep Westbrook. So they could quickly move to Real Competition, since playing next to Westbrook could be an attraction. I just don’t see KD moving. Milwaukee already has Giannis, Parker and Middleton to take wing minutes. They will be looking for a PG with their money. The Bulls already have Butler and tend to give their rookies real time to develop. (McDermott) They will be focused on fixing their frontcourt and PG situation and I doubt will spend big money on a wing. The Wizards will have to pay Beal – but will still have room afterwards. They have Porter and Oubre on the wing too – but Nene is on the way out and their frontcourt is really thin. It just feels unlikely they’d commit even more big resources to the wing, since they have no prayer of getting Durant now. The Suns are going to go after the biggest free agent names they can. Then, once they are turned down after signing someone they think those stars might like, sit tight and try again later. It’s what they do. For the Pacers, they have a lot of money tied up in George, Ellis and Rodney Stuckey. I just can’t see them going big on a fourth wing. Instead – they will probably try to fill the hole at center and fight George Hill’s heir apparent. Utah has to worry about the big salary bumps Favors, Gobert, Hood and Hayward are going to command after next season, and will probably work around the edges. Or go in on a point guard.
Asset Collectors
- Houston Rockets
- Boston Celtics
The Rockets will probably part ways with Dwight – but won’t be coming hard after anyone that isn’t a superstar after that. They will be one of the teams that just wants to get reasonable contract guys they can trade for a star. They won’t be in someone’s living room at midnight of the free agency period. The same can be said for the Celtics, and although the Celtics look good in their own right, they have Bradley and Crowder and I doubt will go big on anyone.
Meh Competition
- New York Knicks
- Denver Nuggets
- Orlando Magic
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Brooklyn Nets
- Philadelphis 76ers
- Charlotte Bobcats
- Memphis
The Knicks are in New York and Porzingis is interesting. They probably will go after guards, though. The Nuggets have a bunch of wings already signed, and are they really that attractive of a destination? The Magic have a team of meh and cap space. I’d rather go somewhere and play with AD and Jrue than Vucevic and Payton. The Timberwolves are going to win 20 games and have two young guys who should be playing the wing in LaVine and Wiggins. And they are in Minnesota. The Nets are a well-publicized mess. The 76ers will probably start spending money now – but I think free agents will stay away until they prove they want to win. The Bobcats aren’t bad, but if you could play with Kemba and Frank Kaminsky or Davis and Jrue, who are you picking? The Grizzlies have been a good team for a long time, you get to play with Gasol, and even if they pay Conley, they can pay someone else too. Of course, Conley and Gasol are getting long in the tooth. Is that a better situation then the Pels? Probably not, right?
The Real Competition
- Portland Trailblazers
- Dallas Mavericks
- Los Angeles Lakers
Portland has a star and is young – have a hole at small forward – and will probably have made the playoffs. They also have a great crowd. These guys are the scariest competition. It’s hard to see the Mavs as a great situation, but their owner and team have a good reputation, they have BIG money, and they can sell things hard, even if they don’t have AD. I wouldn’t pick them, but someone else might. The Lakers may be out out this conversation after the draft – but they are still in LA, so they will get to pitch to anyone. Plus, Kobe will be gone. _I_ see that as a plus, at least.
So that’s my take on the league and the Pelicans competition for a wing. With probably only 3-4 unrestricted FA’s on the wing that could make a difference this year, what do you think about the Pels chances? (Though if they can stay healthy, anybody would probably make a difference for THIS team) Bleak? Decent? Am I way to optimistic? Including too many teams or too few in the Real Competition section?
Let me know in the comments.
12 responses to “Can the Pelicans put a Free Agent next to Davis?”
Nick Batum seems like the guy who is continually brought up. I don’t think the Lakers will go after him, and of Parsons accepts his player option, I doubt the Mavericks will. So, we are left with Pels and Trailblazers. WIll Batum rather go back and play in Portland or come play with AD? who knows… Also, One of these teams may try to offer Harrison Barnes the max early and force the Warriors to make an early decision… Match or go after KD. I personally wouldn’t mind Barnes because he is much younger than Batum, but that is doubtful. One of these teams also could try to do the same with Bradley Beal, but the Wizards will most likely match.
When it comes to possibly trading our pick, I like the idea if we can somehow throw Asik in the deal. We would have 35 million+ in cap space if we do. Opens up a lot of other opportunities.
pelicansfan101 Asik isn’t on a good contract, but it’s not worth giving up assets to free up $10 million in cap room when there are only a few decent free agents and so much money out there to snatch. Unless you KNOW someone is coming, which you can’t at the time of the draft, It would be like doing what the Kings did last year – trade away draft stuff to free up money . . . and then no impact free agents would take their money so they signed Belinelli and Kosta Koufos.
I’m in on Batum. I’m not in on Barnes. I’m terrified of Bradley Beal’s injury history. Unless we just want to set the record for the most injured team of all time.
Good thing I am not still on the pod, because I would have ripped this overly optimistic piece to shreds. Let’s start:
1. If you were a fan/writer for another team, where would you have put the Pelicans? In the ‘Meh’ category, right? And where in the ‘Meh’ category? Probably in the middle or end of it. There are teams with better markets in there. Teams with better culture, and teams winning at a higher level this year.
2. The biggest thing you miss, IMO, is that EVERYBODY wants wings. You write off a few teams, citing that they already have 1 or 2 wings. What the Warriors and others are showing us is that, if anything, you want 3-5 wings, not 1 or 2. When the Cavs were rumored to be trading Love, the guy they wanted supposedly was Jae Crowder, despite already having Lebron, Shump, Jefferson, Smith, etc. Having 1 or 2 wings isn’t enough anymore. So, those teams you crossed off…. put them back on the list.
3. You should’ve listed the wings who actually might make a difference. If you did, you would have 3, maybe 4 names in free agency, and maybe 1 or 2 that could be traded. Then, you would have had the other side with 25-28 teams wanting wings, 20+ of those with as much or more money than the Pelicans to spend, 10-20 teams with better assets to trade… and that would have led to the logical conclusion that the Pelicans aren’t getting a wing worth a darn this offseason unless they move up to #1 or 2 in the lottery.
ryanschwan I think the Pelicans are going to have to get lucky with a free agent and take a risk. A risk they could take is try to get Chandler Parsons at a lower price. This is a risk because he hasn’t played the best this season and injury history, but the Pelicans I believe have to take a risk. Another player I like personally is Jared Dudley. I’m not sure how much he will be wanting after this season due to the rise in the cap, but if he somehow came for the MLE it would be spectacular.
ryanschwan and if you went Parsons and did the Asik trade, we should have enough cap room to sign Al Horford. And then you could resign Anderson and go over the cap.
pelicansfan101 ryanschwan Players have to choose you too, and if you think Parsons or Horford would choose the Pelicans over all the other suitors they will have this summer offering the same money….. well, you are going to be VERY disappointed
I’d like to think the Pels would be competing with 3 other teams, but I’m not sure it’s realistic. Teams that have 1 wing/multi positional player want 2, teams with 2 want 3, and so on.
Oh. After reading the comments, McNamara made similar but more eloquent points than I did. I’ll add that Batum, Parsons, Barnes are all getting max deals and it won’t be here. Also, I think asking the question “will player X want to play with AD or player Y” is foolish. We have to be honest with ourselves at some point and understand that NOLA isn’t a FA destination. CP3 couldn’t lure players and AD probably won’t either. We are all subject to management’s goals. If the continued mandate of ‘win now’ continues, we’re subject to a .500 team hoping for 7 and 8 seeds every year. If they step back from that and think long term, a culture similar to Rip City, Grit and Grind, OKC, or ATL can hopefully be established. For now, less time needs to be spent on the wings listed above and try to find the next Will Barton/Jae Crowder types.
bradlaborde That mandate will continue, and it is why the Pels are in an even worse position than most realize. Dell or Gentry could get fired, as many seem to want, but the next guy will just be given the same mandate.
I am telling you, the only chance this franchise has — the ONLY chance – is to land in the top 2 come lotto night. Then, they end up with either Simmons, Ingram, or Jimmy Butler in a trade. Otherwise, prepare for some more win now moves where the Pels get guys who barely raise their ceiling. But help them just enough to ensure they don’t get another quality draft pick again before AD leaves.
So, yes, it all comes down to the ping pong balls in May. That’s their only chance.
Michael McNamara ryanschwan So what would be y’all’s realistic expectations for the Pels this offseason…
Draft Buddy Heild and add a below avg free agent like Wesley Johnson or trade the pick for a guy like Thad Young. Basically, something that might improve them a little next year but won’t ever make them a contender
Trading Evans and Asik should be top priority. Then draft some rotational players and sign starters and depth on the bench.