So now it’s time for us to adjust our thinking.  The initial thought is “Denver’s not a good team, we should totally beat them!”

That’s not the case.  Records aside – which can be misleading – Denver has given up 4.9 more points per 100 possessions than they have scored this season.  The Pelicans have given up 6.5 more.  To put that in perspective – the Pelicans have a WORSE rating than they did the season in which they “won” the right to draft Anthony Davis.  That team gave up 4.2 points per 100 possessions more than they scored.

Think on that.  Absorb.  Discard injury and tough schedule from your thoughts.  Understand the team we are watching.

Now – other than Philly and (maybe?) the Lakers, should this team beat anybody?

The answer is no.

I’m doing this not to be cruel.  Not to make you sad.  Instead, I’m doing this so you can be happy once more!  If you revise your expectations appropriately, wins become exciting again!  We can look at the draft with some hope!

We can not . . . be so sad . . . all the time . . .

Right?

Keys to the Game

• Protect the glass.  The Nuggets are a pretty awful shooting team.  They also let other teams shoot really well against them.  The gain wins when they dominate the glass – and they are a top 10 rebounding team.  Battle!
• Limit the fouling.  I know the Pelicans can’t do this, since they give up the 7th highest number of free throws – but that is the Nuggets only efficient way of scoring.  They get a middling number of free throws and shoot them well.
• Generate turnovers.  The Pelicans, in general, rarely generate turnovers.  They Nuggets, in general, turn over everything everywhere all the time.  Who will win this tendency?

Enjoy the game!