It’s that time! Training Camp is around the corner. The Pelicans are about to embark on another rough and tumble slog through a Western Conference that has more titans than Godzilla, Pacific Rim, Destiny, and Mecha Anime combined.
The Pelicans arrive on the scene with their own trio of giants in Asik, Davis and Anderson that should provide a storm of complimentary skills capable matching any frontcourt they could face. The only questions about that unit that remain are “Is Anderson Healthy?” and “Will Anthony Davis Marry me?”
The big name backcourt trio is another story. These guys are going to have 36 million of Tom Benson’s dollars lavished on them, and in return are required to be the fuel for that fine, fine frontcourt motor. Yet I don’t have a clue if they are worth it. I can point to a lot of promising signs. Tyreke Evans was phenomenal after the all-star break, living on a steady diet of unstoppable drives to the rim. Eric Gordon regained the shooting stroke that made him so highly paid and stayed healthy until the season was out of reach. Jrue Holiday is a freakin’ former all-star, hit some big shots, and showed moments of brilliance as an off-the-dribble shooter and defender.
There is one nagging question however, I can’t get away from.
Are they anything more than average NBA guards?
This comes up because I’m putting together a projection for the team, and using analytics like PER, RAPM, Win Shares, and WP48 to try to come up with an estimate. Guess what. Most of those measures rate our trio of guards as pretty ordinary dudes. No, not bad. Just ordinary.
Take Jrue Holiday, for instance. Over the past couple years, Jrue has been between 5 and 15% better than an average NBA point guard in the following categories: Rebound rate, Assist Rate, Blocks rate, Steals rate. He’s been 5 to 15% below average in eFG%, TS%, Free throw Attempts, Three point makes and turnover rate. So . . . a guy who will help in a bunch of categories, but not much of an efficient scorer.
Tyreke Evans is in the same boat. Compared to NBA Shooting Guards, he is above average in assist rate, rebound rate, block rate, free throw attempts and steals rate. He is below average in eFG%, TS% and turnovers. Production-wise, he’d essentially be the shooting guard Jrue Holiday if the sheer number of Free throws he generates didn’t make him slightly more efficient overall than an average shooting guard. Slightly.
Lastly, we have Eric Gordon, who is the opposite of his backcourt mates. He’s above average in eFG%, TS%, and Free throw attempts. He’s below average at rebound rate, assist rate, turnover rate, block rate, and steals rate. So while he’s more efficient than your average guard scoring, he contributes nearly nothing anywhere else. Net: average.
So what do you do with that? Production-wise, you end up with a trio of pretty average dudes. Do we still point to their age and say “They’ll improve?” The standard production trajectory of an NBA player peaks during ages 24-25. (Good god. Davis is 21.) All three of these guys are 24 or 25. Is average their peak then? For some players, you could point to their defense to classify them as a better than average player – but the Pelicans were awful defensively last year. Not much proof of this.
So what do you guys think. Is average a fair label? If Dell Demps’ gambles on young veteran guards produces mostly average players is that a success for you? An all average team should win 41 games, remember! Right?
Does it even matter? Couldn’t average be good enough if you have Anthony Davis?
10 responses to “Average Guards Galore”
I cant really be mad wit these guys being avg because
Jrue makes 11 mil
Tyreke the same
And the end of the tunnel on Gordon’s is almost here!
I used to want bledsoe as the centerpeice of the CP trade but not anymore. 70 mil is alot
If “average” is a fair rating, then I’d have to say that Dell’s gambles didn’t pay off when you consider the cost to acquire the trio. Each is paid more than an average player, and in the case of Jrue, add in two lottery picks.
The Pelicans were awful last year at defense sure, Jrue Holiday still a dog at d tho
I would like to see this same analysis done after this season and next. I don’t think Jrue Holiday’s, Tyreke Evans’, and Eric Gordon’s stats while playing for other teams (or our injury riddled, crappy center by committee one last year) are relevant when compared to stats on the Pelicans team this year.
Also, I would like to see Ryan Anderson and Omir Asik’s play analyzed using the same methodology. I bet they would look average, too. Since they do some things very well (defend and rebound for Asik and 3 point shooting for Anderson) and somethings poorly (score for Asik and defense for Anderson).
My point is, GMs and coaches fit teams together based on specific playing abilities not composite abilities. Some guys look horrible on one team and great on the next. Why? The new team can cover their weaknesses and highlight their strengths. We have players with an extraordinary skill: Asik defense and rebounding, Anderson 3 point shooting, Evans driving the basketball, and Davis may end up with several. And other players who are very good as several things. It about how player’s strengths and weaknesses compliment each other as a team. Some players may be average overall as individuals, but compliment each other so well that they form an above average unit. (Think Spurs.) That is what I hope we have on our team in 2014-15. If that happens, I expect to see everyone’s stats improve. (Read from top now.]
504ever Asik and Anderson don’t actually end up average, because they are exceptional at what they do. None of our guards are exceptional in any of the measured categories. They are slightly above average or below average at almost everything.
(Sidenote: if you just take Anderson from last year, as he struggled with injuries even to start the season, he’s close to average. if you take him over two years, he’s above average.)
Any way you slice it, Asik comes out as pretty convincingly productive. His biggest weaknesses put him a little below average (turnovers in particular) but he still comes close enough for it to not matter.
I’d love to see this team come together and help each other. I think it’s a fallacy, however, to point to the Spurs and say they have a bunch of average guys who work so well together they are great.
No, the Spurs have four guys who are exceptional at a number of different things each – and if you took any of them and put them on other teams, they may not have the collective success, but they will still be exceptional.
I think the Pelicans need one of their guards to become exceptional for them to be a real deadly team. Based on what these players have done, though, I’m not willing to give better than even odds that one of them works out.
Good article, but there is some subtlety there in the questions. .
If a guard were truly truly average, he’d have no weaknesses, which is rare. Not just rare as in weird or curious, but a good rare find. He’d be worth something.
None of these guys fits that category, as they have weaknesses, but it does give context. Also, consider that “middlin’” salary goes to “below average players, and things look better. Not great; just better than “average” players for abive average money… which, if we accept the language usage… is “average.”
Also, these deficient categories are correlated… Particularly the scoring numbers… Counting the same issue twice in slightly different ways does not equate to two demerits.
I look forward to seeing the skill mix in action before passing a final judgment on the value for salary.
ryanschwan 504ever
My point about the Spurs was many of their players are average or below. (I know they aren’t all on the court together.)
Where I think we disagree is your using “measured categories” for our guards while I look at skills. I believe Tyreke is exceptional at driving the ball, but that isn’t one of the “measured categories” you are using.
I also see Jrue and Tyreke’s skill set as stronger in the cluster of non-scoring categories, which makes me very happy. Jrue had to be a volume scorer at Philly, cause his teams sucked. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see him become a more efficient scorer with fewer turnovers. With better perimeter shooters around him now, I see Tyreke becoming a more efficient scorer, too. And they have everything else so they both have the potential to become above average players in my mind.
Average, given the $$ and the assets spent to acquire these guards, is a swing and a miss for Demps.
I think average is a fair label based on what we’ve seen. Like you say, all of the metrics rate them out as average. Obviously none of those metrics are perfect, but taken as a whole they paint a fairly convincing picture about these players over their entire careers.
But at the same time, I do think these guys could combine to be more than the sum of the parts. Some of it is on their end in terms of accepting roles and limitations, some of it is schematic. For example, Holiday is a mediocre offensive player by nearly every metric. Giving him the ball and saying “create for us” is a mistake. Expecting Gordon to bring much value to the team if he isn’t heavily involved in the offense is a mistake. Asking Evans to play off ball for long stretches is a mistake.
No one thought it would be easy to integrate all 3 guys and the injuries certainly didn’t help. There’s still hope, but I don’t think any one should confuse any of these guys with proper 2nd fiddles to Davis.
Rather than looking at each player overall, it’s important to look at fit.
These are the things that come to mind when I look at each.
Tyreke = Great ball-handler/penetrator/finisher.
Shortcomings on D/Shooting.
Jrue = Great D/Shooting. (covers for Tyreke’s/Gordon’s shortcomings on D)
EJ = Great penetrator/shooter.
Shortcomings on D.
Rivers = Good D/penetrator
Shortcomings on finishing.
Russ = Not enough to compare yet. (season hasn’t started)
Jimmer = Great shooter
Shortcomings on D.
I truly believe that in order to be great we need skillsets that compliment each other.
Once we free up some salary, we can plug in what we are missing.
Dell has done a great job of this during the past offseason.
We added:
Russ: Defense
Big Pat: Hustle/Rebounding
Asik: Defense/Rebounding
Jimmer: Shooting
These are all skillsets that we needed from (what appears to be) high character locker guys.
The only one we really paid was Asik.
P.S. I believe that Patric Young will be the STEAL of this draft. (even though we didn’t actually take him IN the draft) I wanted us to acquire him before he fell out.
A team is the sum of its parts. Who on spurs would grade above average or wouldn’t have significant categorical deficiencies? It’s about being put in a position where you can play your role. None of these guys have ever been in that position before. Lack of efficiency is the result. We are yet to find out whether Monty can get them to play to their and each others’ strengths.