Do we know our chances yet?

Not quite yet. We’ll update live from Jazz Fest when the last wrinkles are ironed out. Yeah, that’s the kind of ship we run around here. Beach Boys reunite, fist full of couchon de lait, all while updating Hornets fans world-wide about coin flips a thousand miles away. Bienvenue a New Orleans.

Update: The Cavaliers won the tie-breaker.

In the first and second posts about the New Orleans Hornets’ lottery probabilities, there was uncertainty about our draft position. Now, that uncertainty is eliminated, replaced by a single flip of the coin, which will be performed later today. We present an in-depth look at the lottery in general, a look at how each pick of the Hornets may deliver, then a look at the combination of the picks.

Hornets247 will have more coverage in the coming weeks, of course.

NBA Draft Lottery

The Short: The 14 teams that do not make the NBA playoffs enter the NBA Draft Lottery. The first three draft picks are doled out via the lottery procedure. The remaining picks are assigned based on the initial slotting.

The Long: The NBA Draft Lottery is used to assign the top three draft picks in the NBA Draft. The 14 teams not in the NBA Playoffs are entered into the lottery. Teams are ranked in terms of number of wins, with the team with lowest wins being in slot 1, and the team with the most wins being in slot 14. We discuss ties below, but assume that there are no ties for now.

14 lottery balls, which seem like ping-pong balls with a number printed on them in some pattern, are placed into a randomizing hopper. Four lottery balls are drawn without replacement. The combination, without respect to order, is one draw in the lottery. This combination appears in exactly one of lists of combinations assigned to each team in the lottery. The number of combinations in each list is different for each team, with more combinations being assigned to teams with fewer wins. The particular number of combinations is discussed below.

There are 1001 possible draws from the lottery. One of these combinations is ignored if drawn at any time. In this case, the lottery balls are re-entered into the hopper, and the officials draw again. After the first draw of the lottery that corresponds to a team, the combinations for that team are designated as redraw combinations, and that team is awarded the first pick in the NBA Draft. The procedure is repeated until the first three lottery picks are assigned, with the picks being assigned in order.

In the event teams are tied in groups, the entire list of teams is ordered by wins with tied team being listed arbitrarily within those constraints. A `coin flip’ is then executed which ranks those tied teams. Tied teams are then awarded the average number of combinations assigned to teams in the slots they occupy based on the untied condition. If the average number of combinations for those tied teams is not an integer, the number of combinations equal to the greatest integer less than the average is assigned to each team. The remaining combinations are awarded to the team ranked most highly by the random procedure.

The ties not only affect the teams that are tied, but they also affect the chances other teams have at the second and third picks (the first pick probabilities are immune to these effects). This is because of the way teams that are selected for the first two picks have their combinations effectively removed from the lottery in succession.

The NBA Draft Lottery will be held on May 30, 2012, and the coin flips, as mentioned above, will be later today.

Update: The Cavaliers won the tie-breaker.

Hornets Slot

The Hornets are tied in the 3rd slot. These teams are assigned 137 or 138 of the 1000 combinations, with the 138 assigned the winner of the coin flip. Like all slots, any of the top 3 picks can be awarded to the team in this slot, along with picks 4, 5, and 6 if the Hornets win the coin flip and 4,5,6,7 otherwise. No other picks are possible.

The following table lists the probabilities of getting these picks from this slot in this draft to four digit precision if we win the coin flip. Also, note that here and elsewhere, round off error may frustrate attempts to get certain sums to be equal. Rest assured, these calculations were performed using sufficient precision to accurately report the probabilities to four digits.

[table id=28 /]

And if we lose the flip (we did):

[table id=30 /]

Timberwolves Slot

The Timberwolves are untied in the tenth slot. This slot is assigned 11 of the 1000 combinations. Like all slots, any of the top 3 picks can be awarded to the team in this slot, along with picks 10, 11, 12, and 13. No other picks are possible.

The following table shows the probability of getting these picks from this slot in this draft to four digit precision.

[table id=27 /]

The 0.0000 entry indicates a non zero entry whose probability is below 0.00005.

Lottery Outcomes

The following table shows the nonzero probabilities of each nonzero draft outcome to four digit precision in the event we win the coin flip. As above, if the outcome does not appear, it has zero probability.

[table id=31 /]

To read this chart, you must have a pair of picks in mind. The cell at the intersection of the row of the better pick and the column of the worse pick contains the probability of that pick combination happening, regardless of how they arise. For instance, there is a 0.0058 probability of the Hornets receiving the second and fifth picks in the draft if they win the coin flip.

The following chart is similar to that above, but contains the probabilities if the Hornets lose the coin toss (we did).

[table id=32 /]

Inspection shows us that the Hornets most likely single outcome is to pick fifth and tenth, regardless of result of the coin flip. In each case, this outcome happens about 1/4 of the time.

These tables show all the possibilities and probabilities, but they aren’t easy to use, so we have some summary tables to help answer the popular questions.

What is the probability we get the top pick and at least a top X pick to go with it?

The first table shows the probabilities if we win the coin flip, the second if we lose the coin flip (we did).

[table id=33 /]

[table id=34 /]

The probability next to the pick indicates the probability that we receive the top pick and at a top X pick. So, there is a probability of 0.0134 getting the top pick and a top 5 pick to go with it if we win the coin flip.

Also, a `missing’ X has the same probability as the largest X that is listed that is also smaller than it. So the probability that we get the top pick and a top 13 pick to go with it if we win the coin flip is that same as that for the top pick and a top 12 pick if we win the coin flip. This convention is used in the following as well.

What is the probability we get at least a top X pick?

The first table shows the probabilities if we win the coin flip, the second if we lose the coin flip (we did).

[table id=35 /]

[table id=36 /]

For example, if we lose the coin flip, there is a 0.5370 probability of having a top four pick in the draft.

What is the probability both picks are in the top X?

The first table shows the probabilities if we win the coin flip, the second if we lose the coin flip (we did).

[table id=37 /]

[table id=38 /]

For example, if we win the coin flip, there is a 0.0112 probability of having both of our picks in the top three of the draft.

If you have specific questions, put them in the comments and we’ll address them.

Enjoy.

Update: A question arose as to how likely it was the coin flip we lost would affect us against the Cavaliers. From a talent perspective, we should be targeting different players if outside the top three, according to Mike. From a probabilistic perspective, our odds at getting into the top three are about even with them regardless. From a tie-break perspective, this will come into play with a probability of 0.2892, the probability that both the Hornets and Cavaliers miss the top three.