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Game On: Hornets @ Rockets

Matchup: Hornets(3-0) @ Rockets(0-3)
Off Efficiency: Hornets 103.6(12th), Rockets 106.3(8th)
Def Efficiency: Hornets 97.7(6th), Rockets 112.4(30th)
Pace: Hornets 94.6(26th), Rockets 104.1(2nd)

The Hornets roll into Houston to face an almost desperate Rockets team still looking for their first win of the season.  The Rockets have the worst rated defense in the league right now – though a lot of that had to do with a run-and-gun shootout in Golden State that inflated the numbers.

Regardless, the Rockets have been unable to guard shots from the perimeter or at the hoop, and they have forced only 10 turnovers per game, which is the 29th worst in the NBA.  Offensively, they’ve been efficient behind the stellar early production of Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, but it hasn’t been enough.

Both teams have been poor on the boards, though the Hornets are one of the worst in the league, and the Rockets are merely bad.  Perhaps we’ll see a competition to see how many rebounds can hit the floor before someone touches it.

Simulation

In our running NBA 2K11 Simulation, the Hornets lose to the Rockets 134 to 85 and Paul manages 2 points.  Screw you, NBA 2K11.  You might be the best basketball game ever, but you are SO wrong.

Injuries:

Hornets: None
Rockets: Yao plays half-games due to worries about his feet.

Positional Analysis

PG: Chris Paul v Aaron Brooks
Advantage: Hornets
An efficient scorer last season, Brooks hasn’t shown much of that this year, firing away at 35% from the floor the first three games.  Unfortunately for the Rockets, Brooks doesn’t do much of anything else when he’s not scoring, so this is been a problem for him.  Paul, of course, is as deadly as he’s ever been – and he’s doing that while coasting for part of the game and picking his spots.

SG: Kevin Martin v Marco Belinelli
Advantage: Rockets
Kevin Martin scores more efficiently than any guard in the league.  1.53 points per shot, even when he’s struggling a little with his three-point shot.  In 3 games, he’s earned – and made – 30 free throws.   He’s not doing anything else – assists, steals, rebounds, defense – these are somewhat foreign to him, but expect Cookies and Buckets to be frustrated for a lot of the game.  Cookies, of course, hasn’t shown much efficiency at all, shooting poorly in all three games.

SF: Shane Battier v Trevor Ariza
Advantage: Hornets
The Rockets were comfortable letting Ariza walk because they had Battier and Budinger to fill in for him.  So far, Battier’s defense has been alright, but his production otherwise has been non existant.  In 28 minutes a game, he’s producing 4 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists with no free throws and some weak shooting numbers.  While Ariza’s shooting numbers are even worse, his efficiency is better because he’s actually drawing free throws and hitting a three here and there.

PF: Luis Scola v David West
Advantage: Rockets
This is a battle I always love.  Both players seem to take it as a challenge to embarass the other – and really both typically score easily on each other.  Though West has been more efficient so far this season than he’s ever been, this position swings in favor of the Rockets because Scola has continued his incredible play from the World Championships.  He’s not only putting down 27 points a game on 19 shots, but he’s also ripping down 14 rebounds.  West hasn’t hit double digits in boards yet this season.  I don’t expect him to control the boards tonight, either.

C: Yao Ming v Emeka Okafor
Advantage: Hornets
Yao plays half the game.  Okafor does too.  Yao gets 11.5, 8.5 and 2, Okafor gets 7.3, 7.0 and 1.7.  So how does Okafor outstrip Yao?  Because Yao has struggled to get back in the flow offensively, taking 10.5 shots to get that paltry 11.5 points, and has turned the ball over almost 4 times a game.  Okafor may not be as major a part of the offense that Ming is, but when he takes a shot, he’s at least converted those shots at a high rate and made few mistakes

Bench
Hornets: Marcus Thornton, Jason Smith, Willie Green, Jerryd Bayless
Rockets: Brad Miller, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger
Advantage: Rockets
This is a hard one to call.  The Rockets have a pretty solid back five, but outside of Lee none of them have been amazingly efficient.  The Hornets reservers are actually slightly less efficient as scorers, but they defend hard, don’t turn the ball over (except for Bayless), and defend much harder than the Rockets crew.  In the end I give the Rockets the edge because their second unit has more rebounding prowess than the Hornets reserves.

Enjoy the Game.  Talk it up in the comments.

Ryan Schwan

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142 responses to “Game On: Hornets @ Rockets”

  1. The Rockets have looked absolutely terrible. I have to disagree with u on one thing, howevere. 10.5 shots to get 11.5 ppg. That’s pretty decent as he probably make 5 to 6 shots to get that 11.5ppg. If anyone is unefficient it is Emeka Okafur. He’s has been terrible. To think he was expected to be a star.

    Reply

    • Why is Okafor terrible? He’s our 5th option on the court and is playing stellar defense, that’s all we need him for. Last year he was “awful” defensively but he’s playing great especially for an undersized 5. Maybe when he was drafted he had high stock but I don’t know if anyone thought Okafor was the next Hakeem Olajuwon.

      Reply

  2. Don’t mistake decent shooting percentages for efficiency. If you take 10 shots a game, and produce 1.1 points per shot via scoring and free throws, that’s well below the league average. That is what Yao is doing.

    For example, Okafor scores 1.47 points for every shot he takes. He also doesn’t turn the ball over like Yao.

    That makes Okafor a more efficient player right now. Those numbers aren’t normal for Yao, but at the moment, Okafor is out-playing him.

    Reply

  4. Put ariza defending k-mart and belinelli on battier. Marcus might not be big enough but i think belinelli could hold his own. Ariza was brought in specifically for the kobes, melos, and k-marts of the league.

    Reply

  5. I think the hornets will win. But remember all the 0-2 and 0-3 are starting to win. Im just saying dont come in the game expecting to win. play just how you played against Denver and the Spurs. Good Luck

    Reply

  6. 10.5 Shots (and 4 turn overs) to get 11.5 points a game is the same as 29 possessions to score 23 points.

    Yao’s ORTG (the number of points he would be expected to score given 100 possessions is a career low 87 this year. Small sample size but Okafor’s is 128. Ok but what about the Defensive end? Yoa is expected to allow 112. Okafor 98 points.

    So far Ming has been a below average player at his position (even considering his minutes) this year and Okafor has been better than average. This doesnt mean Yao wont break out or wont find his game, we can expect that to happen at some point but right now Okafor is playing better. (Still I wish he could learn to me more aggressive on the boards and start throwing down dunks instead of the finger-roll /layups.

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  7. I think our addition of Ariza will help us win this game easier than most expect. We should put Ariza on Martin to slow him down, and also Ariza should be familiar with the game plan Coach Adelman wants to run. We also have had 3 days off to get ready for this game. With MIA coming to town Friday, this is almost a must win…to avoid dropping a potential 2 in a row (since MIA outmatches us on paper). I think we win by atleast 8 tonight.

    Reply

  8. Going into Houston to play a 0-3 team at home which is averaging 110 pts. a game should be a real test for the new “Bee-Fense”. Plus Houston is not exactly playing like a 0-3 team , and now with Yao (for his 28 min. ) they have an un guard-able big , a true scorer at the two , Scola playing like a monster after the worlds at the 4 ( which should be a great battle between two great offense PF’s both with less than great defensive records ) a scoring point guard and multiple 3 pt shooters , not to mention the fact that Houston runs two distinct offense with and without Yao , the offense showcasing Brad Miller at the 5 runs the floor more and runs a flex in the halfcourt with Miller distributing out of the high post … should be a good test for the Hornets defensively, and if we can keep them under 100 our chances look good. But the again if they want to run up the score didn’t DWest have a career game against them last year ?

    Reply

  9. I expect this to be a tough game. Although I haven’t seen the Rockets yet this season, they just seem to have such a great team on paper (especially their bench), however I know that doesn’t always come to fruition. Also, a team starting out so cold must be eager to take down one in the opposite situation. Still, I hope to see the Hornets pull it out!

    Reply

  11. Will Aaron Brooks be pissy and try to show off because of not getting a contract extension? It doesn’t matter. CP3 can be even more pissy if need be. LOL! Keep an eye on role players such as Budinger and Lee. Hornets must play good defense and rebound, rebound, rebound. The Rockets, still looking for their first win of the season, will pretty much be very desperate for a win. The Hornets need to be even more desperate to keep the streak alive. KEEP THE STREAK ALIVE!!! GEAUX HORNETS!!

    Reply

    • Houston are better than their 0-3 record insinuates, but I believe the Hornets have the better team. I’m worried though, since the Rockets must be chompin’ at the bit for a win, especially at home.
      I’m looking forward to the DW-Scola matchup, and I hope this is the night Belinelli gets his shooting touch back!
      Geaux Hornets!

      Reply

  30. first game where im trying to watch mbenga when hes in and i must say i like him. hes contested great and even if a goal tend was called he GOT UP to contest

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  33. Nice block Mbenga! You can’t let players like Hayes score on you. Nice block Smith or Mbenga. Whichever one got it.

    Now Thornton is off to an ugly start.

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  40. Ariza needs to show up. Houston fans will be glad they traded him even moreso if he sucks it up tonight. We’ll still have 3 more games for him to do something against them though. 🙂

    Reply

  51. Keep playing around ok Hornets? And watch you end up losing this darn game.

    Coaching staff needs to let the players know that all Kevin Martin looks to do is play lazy ball by getting to the free throw line.

    Reply

  52. Finally. A Hornet that makes both of his free throws. All I know is ……… we better come out swinging in the 2nd half. Stop pussyfooting around.

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  55. Ok, checked the boxscore and Yao is down with 3 fouls. I kind of figured he should’ve had more than the 2 Bob just mentioned.

    Will we see Pondexter in the 2nd half? Hopefully he won’t have the rookie jitters.

    Reply

  56. idk but apparently CP’s taking Miami’s big three out thursday night before the game…GET EM DRUNK CHRIS, GET EM DRUNK

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  63. Okafor is looking like a MONSTER out there tonight. If he can play like this every night we’d definitely be a tough team. His effort and energy is a thing of beauty tonight! Lets go Hornets!

    Reply

  76. If NBA 2k11 was right, the Rockets would have to score 52 more points in ~7 minutes, while we don’t score at all.

    NBA 2k11 simulation for the win!

    Reply

  89. OH MAN. I WAKE UP AND I FIND THIS! in the words of David Kahn:

    “It’s like manna from heaven” (not to be blasphemous or anything)..

    This feels good!

    Reply

  93. LMAO Kevin Martin!!! Paul pestered the crap out of him. Paul made Kevin throw his body into him. I’ve always said Paul is a knat on defense. Pesky, pesky, pesky.

    Reply

  100. the stretch he did looked like it was a calf cramp and he was able to run it off so im thinking so. he doesnt look worried

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  104. cp got a rebound with like 30 sec left and came up gimpy. he played out the game, made his freethrows and all, and ran after that although limping heavily. he was bending down and grabing his toe which means hes stretching out a cramp. u just dont do that for knee injuries.

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  105. Wait a minute! The Hornets took 42 free throws??!! Wow. Too bad we left 12 of them out of the basket. Were we driving to the rim that much? Were the Rockets committing silly fouls?

    Reply

  107. wow….. 4 and 0 that is awesome

    I followed this game on gamecast at work and then on my phone during lunch and am going to look forward to watching the highlights tonight.

    I hope CP3 is ok from what you guys are saying sounds like cramp, we are going to need him for Friday’s game for sure.

    Okafor 5 blocks wow…. I think this years squad is turning into a collective body that gets wins rather than a few all-stars carrying a squad. Tonight was Marco and Emeka coming through with Smith off the bench. Other nights it is West and Thornton. I notice that Martin was kept to 18 points on some terrible shooting, was Ariza on him most of the game?

    awesome start to the season, to all them doubters “SHAME”!!!

    Reply

  109. yea Ariza played martin pretty well but picked up some silly fouls. and he has 15 at the half so it was the second half in where he was shut down.

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  111. oh and btw im glad we didnt sign head. Bower really tried to screw us with that one cause he looks terrible in the Sacremento game. he jumps like 5ft forward on his shots and has gotten backboard and no rim on 3 shots

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  112. Remember when CP3 went to sit on that exercise bike?….

    NOTES: With no room left on the New Orleans bench, Paul was escorted to an area closer to fans to sit during his break in the fourth quarter. A couple of fans began to heckle him and take cell phone pictures of the star guard, who yelled back at the unruly fans. … New Orleans’ 43 first-half points were a season low for a Houston opponent.

    http://www.nba.com/games/20101103/NOHHOU/gameinfo.html

    Hahaha.

    Reply

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