Stumbling on a Winner

Published: April 3, 2010

So the results of the Stumbling on a Contest Contest are in.  Some of you did well, while some of you . . . well, didn’t.  The one who answered the most questions right was Corndeaux, who managed to nail every single one of them.  Good on ya.

Unfortunately for Corndeaux, the contest wasn’t about who got the most right, it simply gave him, like the NBA lottery, the most combinations of numbers in a chance to win the big prize, and this time, he lost out.  Instead, the lucky winner is NOEngineer, who won a copy of Stumbling on Wins, after getting two questions correct, earning a 3.9% chance of winning – which, I remind you, is still 50% more than the chance the Hornets have of moving up in the draft.

The answers to the questions, with some minor commentary by me, are below:

1. Last season, behind Chris Paul, which of the following Point Guards was the second most productive in the league?

A. Rajon Rondo .332(3rd, 18 wins)
B. Deron Williams .228(7th, 11.9 wins)
C. Jason Kidd .349(2nd, 21 wins)
D. Steve Nash .232(6th, 12 wins)

Note: Yeah – I have a hard time giving Jason Kidd this much credit too.  Still, he’s a tremendous rebounder, passer, and though he’s not a high volume shooter, he hits his shots at a high rate.  He contributes to winning in a lot of different ways.

2. Which of the following Hornets had the most productive rookie seasons, per minute?

A. Marcus Thornton (.086 WP48)
B. Julian Wright (.083 WP48)
C. Hilton Armstrong (.043 WP48)
D. Darren Collison (.078 WP48)

Note: Thornton started the season rough, but since the All-Star break has been posting a WP48 of near .150.  That has allowed him to just pass Julian Wright as the most productive Hornet rookie(per minute) in the last few years.  That stat is exciting, but man, it hurts too.  Julian showed so much potential as a rookie.

3. Which of the following power forwards, is, essentially, totally average?

A. David West (.110 WP48)
B. Kurt Thomas (.143 WP48)
C. Troy Murphy (.315 WP48)
D. Darius Songaila (-.126 WP48)

Note: David West has varied between .080 and .120 his entire career.  Since a player with a rating of .100 is completely average, David takes the crown here.  Anyone stunned about Troy Murphy?  The dude’s a rebounding beast with crazy efficiency from range.

4. Which of the following Hornets has had the largest decline in production from last year to this year?

A. Emeka Okafor (WP48 declined .036)
B. Peja Stojakovic (WP48 declined .025)
C. James Posey (WP48 declined .004)
D. Chris Paul (WP48 declined .076)

Note:  Any way you cut this, Chris Paul’s production has declined.  He’s produced way fewer overall wins because of his injury, but he’s also been much worse than he was last year, posting a WP48 of .375, as compared to last years .451.  That .451 was absolutely insane, by the way – and at .375, still leads the Point Guards in the league this year.

5. Which of the following starting Hornets posts the worst defensive numbers according to opponent PER?

A. Peja Stojakovic (Opp PER 14.4)
B. Marcus Thornton (Opp PER 17.0)
C. Chris Paul (Opp PER 19.5)
D. Emeka Okafor (Opp PER 22.5)
E. David West (Opp PER 16.4)

Note: Surprised?  It’s what I’ve been saying all along.  Peja may not be able to stay in front of a determined driver – but he’s remarkable at baiting them into stupid, stupid shots, and contesting them.  This season, however, his own PER dropped below the 14.4 defensive number he was posting – making him a liability for the first time as a Hornet.  For the rest, Paul’s numbers have dropped some this season, Thornton’s are respectable for an undersized rookie, and West’s are the exact same he posted last year and the year before.  Emeka’s numbers, however, are horrific.

Congratulations again, NOEngineer.


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