Today, the New Orleans Pelicans picked up Anthony Davis’s option for the 2015-16 season. No surprise there. But according to John Reid of the Times-Picuyane, they will decline the 2015-16 option on Austin Rivers. The Pelicans have until October 31st to make this decision officially, and if they do pick up his contract, Rivers will be guaranteed 3.1 million dollars in 2015-16. They would also have the right to make him a restricted free agent in 2016-17 by giving him a 4.2 million dollar tender before he hits free agency. Meanwhile, if they decline his option in the next few days, he becomes an unrestricted free agent in July of 2015, and could just up and leave New Orleans three years after he was drafted here 10th overall.
So why would Demps risk letting a 22 year old lottery pick go before he reaches his prime? The argument for not picking up the option centers around flexibility. Not only could it give the Pelicans an extra $3 million in cap room next summer, but it also could make Rivers more valuable on the trade market this year – as he would be an expiring contract. If the Pelicans want to go out and get a SF at the deadline, and the team they are trading with doesn’t want to take back any long-term salary, then Rivers can help facilitate a trade. They can put him with (just an example) Withey and Salmons, and take back nearly $8 million in salary.
That scenario makes more sense to me. Declining the contract to have another $3.1 million in free agency next season does not. First of all, it’s not really $3.1 million. You need to have a cap hold for open spots, so you are actually creating about $2.6 million in cap room. Next, we have to look at the salary cap, which is projected to be $66.5 million next season. Now, with the new TV deal, there is a small chance that the players and owners can agree to smooth out the big bump, and raise the cap more than that next year. But that doesn’t appear likely. If the cap is $66.5 million, and Eric Gordon opts in (again, likely if the cap isn’t smoothed) and the Pelicans retain Asik’s cap hold, then the Pelicans will be right up against the salary cap if they decline Rivers, and slightly over if they pick up the option. In either case, they will have the MLE. But in only one case, will they be guaranteed Rivers for $3.1 million AND have a chance to match any offers the following summer.
The only way that declining Rivers option next summer, therefore, is if the cap is smoothed and/or Eric Gordon opts out of his final year. Again, neither appears very likely right now. The most likely outcome is that the cap is $66.5 million next summer and Eric Gordon opts in. Then, the Pelicans re-sign Omer Asik, and they are over the cap. The most likely scenario is that the Pelicans make their next big free agent move in 2016, when Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson come off the books and the cap takes a pretty significant jump up. So why not make the Rivers decision then?
Declining his option could put Dell Demps in a difficult position next summer. Let’s say Austin plays well and he is a 23 year old combo guard who has improved greatly two years in a row. Now, Dell wants to sign him and Austin wants to stay, but he isn’t just going to take a one year deal. Dell has to decide: Do I let him walk or do I eat into my 2016 cap room by giving him a multi-year deal? Neither scenario is ideal if it plays out like that. What you would love in that scenario is for Austin to take a one-year deal, so you can put it off until the following summer. Or basically, exactly what would happen if Dell picked up his option this week.
Look, this decision is probably not going to make or break the Pelicans future championship hopes, but the flexibility that not picking up Austin’s option does not outweigh the problem that would be created this summer if Austin takes another leap forward and hits unrestricted free agency. Nobody ever said being a General Manager was easy, and this is admittedly a close call, but the best thing for the franchise would be for Dell to value Rivers over a tiny bit of flexibility that might not even really exist when its all said and done.
12 responses to “Why Dell Demps Should Pick Up Austin Rivers’ Option”
I agree that the possibility of having something like $8M in expiring contracts to trade for a SF this year is important, and we all know how Dell constructs deals piece by piece miles out from the final trade. Rivers expiring contract could be a big piece in a larger SF trade.
Where I disagree is the Rivers turning into something much above a replacement player. Right now it’s hard to see Rivers being paid more than 1x-2x his NBA minimum salary. The kind of improvement in his game that we have seen even this preseason is evolutionary when he needs revolutionary change to be a sought after FA whose contract price gets driven up. So I think this factor also says don’t pick up River’s $3.1M option.
By mid season we will be regretting this decision. Rivers is going to be a key contributior this year. Especially with Tyreke Starting, every playoff contending team has talent off the bench rivers might not be elite but he provide a necessary dynamic.
That’s a lot of words that avoid the simple fact that Rivers is not even an average NBA player. Not sure how this is any different than the Aminu option decline.
Hope Rivers earns a second contact and a long career. But this is absolutely the right move for the team
thouse I applauded the idea not to pick up Aminu’s option, and detailed why here:
http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/2012/10/29/in-demps-we-trust-dell-makes-the-right-call-on-player-options/
But the situations are not the same for a couple of reasons.
1. Rivers actually showed improvement from year 1 to year 2, so it is reasonable to expect more in year 3. In most categories, Aminu declined from year 1 to 2.
2. The Pelicans actually had cap room opening up that next year, so picking up Aminu’s option ate away at possibilities. As I detailed here, the Pels likely won’t have cap room whether they pick up Rivers option or decline it.
What potential targets do you all see as options in the $8 million range?
Michael McNamara
That’s fair on point 2. Point 1 is a stretch. He improved from awful to bad. I hope he continues to improve, but there is no evidence he can be a quality rotation player in the NBA at this point.
Picking up Rivers option means using him as a contract filler in a trade- which isn’t a bad idea.
Not sure if you saw this from Nylon Calculus, but an interesting read. http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/10/17/rookie-scale-option-decisions/
According to their numbers, Rivers has an over 50% chance of busting out of the league. Numbers can lie. He still can make an impact, but holding out for that increasingly looks like a fool’s errand.
The most overrated player in years and they’re those who think Rivers should stay smh. The past 3 years all we see is a crappy player who live in the shadows of his father who was nothing but an journeyman. Austin will be an journeyman himself I know no one don’t like hearing these things but stop with the pity train on Rivers.
thouse Michael McNamara
And in that Nylon Calculus article, also says Rivers has “done little to demonstrate his ability to compete in the NBA. It is highly unlikely that this changes in 2015.” It also places Rivers in the “Let Them Walk” category of 2012 draft players whose option year should not be picked up based on demonstrated basketball play!
Like I said, I don’t think this is a big deal when its all said and done. Both options had good arguments. I leaned towards picking up the option, but I can see Dell’s logic, and I might even be calling him a genius in February or next July.
But, whether it is with us or not, I do believe Rivers will be a solid NBA player for the next 8-10 years.
I think we should probably pick him up. 3 mil is not really a bargain, but when you look at players that contribute for about 3 million a year they are generally either on a rookie contract or are veterans who take a discounted salary to play for a contender. Since we have traded away so many of our recent picks and don’t project to be a contender in a year – I think there is value in holding on to him. However in Demps we trust – if the Pels are not going to extend him, I suspect Demps has a possible move in the works.
Agreed!!!
Austin Rivers is a beast. Every time he drives he gets passed his man. He can shoot the ball but Month Williams wants him to drive. I blame this on Month Williams. Austin was a # 10 overall pick. Him and Anthony Davis were top #1 and #2 in high school. I watch the games and when I see Austin drive and penetrate nobody can stay in front of him. Monty should of started Austin his rookie year. He’s the type of player that needs confidence. He always been the man on the team. High school and at Duke. He don’t get enough minutes to show his talent. When he does have mins it seems like they don’t call plays for him. Austin Rivers is a scorer. A great scorer and watch what I say y’all are all gonna regret getting rid of Austin Rivers like they got rid of every other star they had. This is just a young man who went to the wrong team. He couldn’t start over Eric Gordon or Vasquez his rookie yr. He is really better than Vasquez way more quicker than Gordan. I watch this boy play since way back in the day and new Orleans should have circled their game around Anthony Davis and austin rivers and Eric gordan. But naww month Williams wants him to learn pg and this and that. No don’t draft a player and try and change what he does which is score. Let him do what he been doing his whole life. This is just a man who went to the wrong team. That’s it that’s all and always remember this. Y’all will REGRET this.