As we reach the All-Star break, the Hornets are 33-25, which is good for sixth in the Western Conference. With only 24 games left, a top 3 seed appears out of reach, and the Hornets are four games behind Oklahoma City in the race for home court advantage in the first round. When you add in the fact that OKC has the tiebreaker, passing them seems unlikely as well. That leaves seeds 5-8 open, with six teams having a realistic shot at those four spots.
The Hornets remaining schedule looks pretty good on paper, but as we have seen of late, this team can lose to anybody if they are not at full strength. The good news is that Okafor should be back, starting with the Hornets first game against the Clippers and Dell Demps is working the phones to try and add depth and scoring to the current roster.
The Hornets will have 13 of their final 24 games at home and 14 of their last 24 games will come against teams that are currently not playoff teams. The following is a break down of what lies ahead.
Easiest Stretch of Games (February 23- March 1)
Immediately following the six day All-Star break, the Hornets open up with a four game stretch that can propel them forward in the playoff seedings. They start with the Clippers at home, then travel to Minnesota, back home for Houston, and then to Toronto to take on the Raptors. Minnesota is 2-0 against the Hornets this year, but New Orleans will be out for blood in that game, and there is no reason the Hornets shouldn’t take care of business against the Clips and Rockets at home. The Toronto game will be the start of a five game Eastern road trip for the Hornets, so coming out of this stretch 3-1 or 4-0 is imperative.
Toughest Stretch (March 19-27)
Boston at home, just as they begin to crank it up for the playoffs, then a 3-game West coast road trip at Utah, Phoenix and the Lakers. This four game stretch includes the two favorites to reach the NBA finals, and a city where the Hornets have had immense difficulty winning in over the last five years. Add a Phoenix team sandwiched in on the second night of a back to back, and that could be a brutal stretch for the Hornets. Then again, winning a couple of those games could give this team a huge confidence boost heading into the final two weeks of the season and the playoffs.
Back to Back Games: 4
The Hornets only have four sets of back to backs remaining, and actually have a few stretches where they will get quite a bit of rest between games. 2 of the 4 back-to-backs are in the beginning of March on the East coast road trip. March 2nd, the Hornets get the Knicks one night after facing the Raptors, and March 7th, the Hornets will be at Chicago after facing Cleveland the night before. Personally, I prefer back-to-backs set up like this. You get the easy team first, beat them up, and then take your chances with the more difficult team the next night. Much less likely to go 0-2. If it were flip-flopped, you could imagine a scenario in which the Hornets and Bulls beat up on each other all night and take it down to the wire, the Hornets lose and then are exhausted for Cleveland the next night. Hornets should go at least 1-1 in both of these situations.
One of the other BTB’s is the aforementioned at Utah, then at Phoenix in late March and the final one of the season comes on April 10/11, as the Hornets have the Grizzlies on the road and then come home to face Utah.
Key Games (3 vs. Memphis, 1 vs. Denver, 1 vs. Portland, 2 vs. Utah)
The Hornets get to face each of the teams that they are fighting for playoff positioning, and those battles will go a long way in determining who ends up in which spot. Most believe that Denver will simply fall out of the playoff mix once they trade Carmelo, but that squad will still have tons of talent, and an outstanding home-court advantage. Now, if they have a fire sale and let K Mart, Nene, and JR go as well, then perhaps we can discount them, but not yet.
The Hornets face the Grizzlies three more times this year, and don’t look now but Memphis is only 1.5 games behind the Hornets. New Orleans escaped with a victory in the first meeting, but this Memphis team has a lot of talent and has been playing much better as of late. Don’t count them out. Utah on the other hand, has been in a free fall the past couple of weeks, but they are still a threat.
Portland will probably be the Hornets biggest competition for that 5 seed, and a win against them on March 30th would be huge, as it would give the Hornets the regular season tiebreaker against the Blazers.
The Stretch Run
April is the final month of the NBA season and when conference races are this tight, every game can mean a huge shift in the seeding. The Hornets have seven games over the final 13 days, and five of those games are at home. In fact, if you reach back into April, the Hornets will have quite a nice home stand, as they will be in New Orleans  from March 28th to April 9th, sleeping in their own beds, eating at their favorite restaurants, practicing in their own gym, etc.
The five home games in April are against Memphis, Indiana, Houston, Phoenix and Utah. Meanwhile, the only two road games New Orleans has is at Memphis and at Dallas. The Dallas game might be a game in which the Hornets catch a break, as it is the last game of the season, and in all likelihood, the Mavs will already have locked in their position.
Those final seven games will give the Hornets a good opportunity to pick up some wins, and also gauge where they are as they head into the playoffs. A nice winning streak, coupled with a favorable first round matchup, could propel the Hornets into the second round, where a healthy New Orleans team could be a nightmare for the Spurs or the Lakers.
18 responses to “The Road Ahead”
I like the positivity, Michael. Hornets can be unstoppable some nights, unwatchable others. With Mek and Ariza back and a favourable, heres hoping they are in unstoppable mode heading into the playoffs.
David West is really they key to this team. If he is having a big night and is a reliable scoring option for Chris Paul (which he usually has been this year) then the Hornets are a tough team to beat.
If he struggles, then New Orleans doesn’t have the firepower to make up for an off night from him.
I actually feel Emeka is more important than West. Just look at our record without him. I hope the Hornets really surge after this All-Star break. I don’t think those first four games are easy but we’ll see.
so mac you slowly coming over to the idea we are a legit contender?
Legit contenders? No. Capable of making a run? Yes. To me, it is 99% that either Boston, LAL, or Miami wins the title- but I think every team has a different definition for what a “successful” season could be, and I think the Hornets have a great opportunity to reach and surpass every realistic goal.
we’re a contender if the real cp3 shows up for the rest of the season/playoffs. otherwise we’re just playoff fodder. if this team could just play the way they did against SA our last game against them, i cant see a team beating us in seven games.
Thank you for the nice breakdown of the schedule ahead. Lately, I’ve been trying to remind myself that the Hornets weren’t supposed to be a playoff team this year, and just getting in is a big step for a rebuilding team. Playoff experience would be huge for the young guys, and Williams can try out a shortened rotation, and cut his playoff coaching teeth.
But clearly the Hornets aren’t title contenders, and they don’t seem to have the talent of some of the better also-rans. So I’m really hoping for the second round or so in 2012, and a well-rounded team (depth, scoring) going into next year.
For the rest of this season, I’m going to enjoy the surprisingly good Hornets, and look for signs of chemistry, young player development, Williams’ development, and hope for one or two good western teams to blow it up.
Can you guys get a post up about the trade rumors?
I’d like to see your opinions on the Jamison, Murphy situation & all of that.
http://www.hornets247.com/news/2011/02/19/bring-the-news-trade-rumors/
Here’s a place to post some links to rumors. Free free to do some analysis.
If this teams is healthy (Mek, CP3, Ariza, West etc.) anything is possible, I say the Hornets go 15 9 in this last stretch..We are 5th seed and we win in the first round against the Thunder…
Yes, I’m predicting it lol ^^…
Are you sure this isn’t just the fan talking in you? I mean the Thunder aren’t the team they used to beat. Durant is the leading scorer and Westbrook is decent. If the Hornets got one win in OKC then they could pull it off. That would be real hard though considering the fans up there love their basketball team.
17 – 7 for the rest of the year. Yeah, I said it. We’re going to get more rest than anyone. Okafor is going to come back rested. We start off with easy games to get on a roll and I think we will.
I BEElieve.
I believe too much in conspiracy theories to believe we have a chance at making the Finals. I’m sorry, but I can’t see the Hornets getting more respect from the referees against a team like San Antonio (which we’ve seen before in the playoffs) or the Lakers. Hell, Kevin Durant forces the Thunder to get more respect, and the history of the Jazz franchise automatically gives them more respect from the refs.
This is the part I hate, because on paper I feel like the Hornets can beat anybody on any given night; but a ‘third-party’ always gets in the way of things. The league seems to have a vison of what two teams would be most marketable in the Finals. The Lakers and Celtics are the two most marketables teams … plus they have talent. So, all the refs have to do is help just a little in order for those kinds of teams to get over the hump when another team has their number. If these two franchises had no talent (like the Celtics five years ago) it wouldn’t matter what the refs did for them. The refs have the power to push a good team over the hump.
When we talk about revenue … the Hornets never enter in that conversation unless its about losing money. So, why would the NBA (even though they own them) or the refs repsect them in the playoffs? The Hornets are a very good team, because any team that wins 10 games in a row twice in the first half of a season is very good. However, they don’t generate money.
Just one question so yawl don’t think I’m going against the grain.
Who would David Stern prefer in the finals?
Lakers VS Celtics? or Hornets VS Bulls?
At the moment, I measure the Hornets success based on getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs and possibly to the Western Conference Finals!
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Spurs Pistons
i’m disappointed this is the first year we haven’t had a all star competition for cp3 that i can remember since i came to this site
Like the analysis, I agree completely. We recently posted a similar analysis, but in a little less detail.
http://www.hoopdat.org/?p=400
Who would give Kevin Durant a tougher match-up? Ariza or Jamison?
Honestly!
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