Are Chris Paul’s Stats Really Worse?

By:
Published: December 18, 2010

Some are claiming that Chris Paul is having an off year, but is there any truth to it? John DeShazier of the Times-Picayune recently wrote that “The numbers say not everything is right“, referring to Chris Paul. To get a bit more acquainted with the new software I made a video talking about CP3’s stats. Don’t get too excited. When I make the comment about PER, TS% and usage rate, I’m talking about point guards. That isn’t very clear in the video.

What do you think about Paul’s season? Would you consider this a down season for him statistically, or do you think that the improvements in some parts of his game more than make up for the lack of volume that he’s putting up?

26 Comments

  1. Michael McNamara

    December 18, 2010 at 9:52 pm

    #1 in the entire NBA in PER.

    How can that be a down year for anybody?

    • Caleb

      December 18, 2010 at 9:54 pm

      Indeed.

  2. Caleb

    December 18, 2010 at 9:53 pm

    Yeah…. as you pointed out quite well the so-called “down” stats are just shallow per game numbers based on less minutes played and less field goal attempts. The more advanced numbers show he’s basically as dominant as ever. I will say that the low FGAs has bothered me at times this year, as there are times I wish he would have look for his own shot a bit more, but I don’t think its a huge issue

    • QueenBee

      December 18, 2010 at 10:05 pm

      Good points made Caleb.

    • Michael McNamara

      December 18, 2010 at 10:08 pm

      Practically, I think it has hurt him in one on-court aspect. When he drives, the opposing team is expecting him to dish and practically has no fear of him taking the shot. Because of that, CP3 has had some passes that look horrible and has had quite a few turnovers.

      Look at that drive to the bucket in the 4th against the Kings, for instance. He comes down the lane and nobody leaves their man. Beno took a jab step towards Paul and then ran back to his man and CP3 had an uncontested half-court layup.

      If Paul takes a few more shots per game, I think defenders will come off their man and the passing lanes will open up for CP3. Other than that, I love the way he is playing and despite all the Sportscenter highlights and inflated stats, give me CP3 over Rose or Westbrook when the playoffs come and it takes basketball IQ to win games.

      • 42

        December 18, 2010 at 11:21 pm

        To win in war, your enemy must not know what you are going to do, or guess by weighing chances.

      • Caleb

        December 18, 2010 at 11:55 pm

        Yeah I’m with you on that, and that’s been my only issue with CP taking less shots…. it makes things easier for the D.

        Right around 13-14 shots seems like it would be the sweet spot.

      • Joe Gerrity

        December 19, 2010 at 2:21 am

        Very good point, Michael.

      • nikkoewan

        December 19, 2010 at 8:12 am

        Well articulated.

      • JCS

        December 19, 2010 at 12:24 pm

        I’ll take CP over Rose and Russie, but did you have to diss my homeboy from Chicago? Jeeez.

  3. QueenBee

    December 18, 2010 at 10:14 pm

    Speaking of Chris Paul, check out his cover story in the latest issue of Dime Magazine.

    http://dimemagazine.epubxpress.com/

  4. QueenBee

    December 18, 2010 at 10:16 pm

    His story begins on page 68.

  5. 42

    December 18, 2010 at 11:32 pm

    Joe, I know you are proud of your video and the numbers and all, but really the only thing that matters is how often you get all hyped up when stare at the tv or sit in your seat when Chris plays. That is how one judges players, not looking at ‘facts’. If I get excited, he’s great. If he plays flawlessly but I don’t notice, he sucks.

    MVP voting is an erection count.

    • Caleb

      December 18, 2010 at 11:56 pm

      LOL

    • Joe Gerrity

      December 19, 2010 at 2:22 am

      Sounds about right.

  6. NOEngineer

    December 19, 2010 at 9:15 am

    My only comment is that CP3 is missing shots that were previously “money” shots. His patented “dribble out the clock at the end of the quarter then hit the 14-foot jumper with no time left” has failed a number of times this year. He has also been caught and blocked on long layups a few times. The unreal confidence doesn’t seem to be there at the basket right now. I don’t know how he is maintaining his shooting efficiency compared to prior years…

    He has thrown more errant passes this year that I had noticed in years past. I think several have been instances where he would have shot, but this year is leaving his feet then passing. Shut up, Gil, and get out of my head!

    • JCS

      December 19, 2010 at 12:25 pm

      I agree with you 100%

    • Okijeff

      December 19, 2010 at 8:52 pm

      Me too.

  7. m-W

    December 19, 2010 at 1:18 pm

    Joe, great breakdown. Considering that most teams today used advanced stats, and real fans are embracing them as well, it is dumbfounding that “major media” outlets refuse to employ them. For example, last year, when people looked at per game stat comparisons between Thornton and Evans or Curry, it was silly, because Thornton barely played at the beginning of the year, in short stretches after that, and only later into the season became a starter, which obviously skewed his per game stats; Evans, and Curry, however, started the whole year and played heavy minutes, which over-weighted their per game stats. Thornton’s per minute stats showed he was in many regards the better player, or right there with those two, who were considered the two best rookies. I’m not saying this to stoke the Thornton fires again, but just to point out another Hornets example of how per game stats are quite often not accurate at all.

    While many fans have wondered if CP could be more dominant, that’s a matter of degree. As you’ve pointed out, his numbers are there, his abilities are still there; there’s no real drop off other than less time on the floor. It’d be nice if the so-called “major media” could take some lessons from your analysis and get things right.

    • Okijeff

      December 19, 2010 at 8:55 pm

      Good examples of how stats are wrong in some cases.

  8. QueenBee

    December 19, 2010 at 2:42 pm

    “major media”? You’re not calling John DeShazier ‘major media’ are you? LOL.

  9. Thornton's Thunder

    December 19, 2010 at 3:53 pm

    Thanks AGAIN, Joe, you’ve made some very interesting points. You’ve said it best, as anyone can see, to talk about Paul’s numbers in its entirety, one must go to an ‘Advanced Statistical Analysis’ which you certainly did. We appreciate you doing the homework by breaking down the numbers for the fans. I suppose what I’m also saying is…You kicked DeShazier’s A#%!!!! Good Job!!!!! P.S. No disrespect John, you do a fantastic job, but you’ve got to agree, Joe got you on this one!!!!!

  10. hewhorocks

    December 20, 2010 at 1:08 am

    Hewhorocks seal of approval!!!

  11. bgalella

    December 20, 2010 at 10:06 am

    Good point about the MVP race, Paul is playing well, but this team needs a few more points per game from him.

    If he posts 20 points per game, he’s in the MVP race again. It’s just the number people are constantly looking for.

  12. Pingback: Game #27 Preview: DC vs. CP3

  13. Pingback: Chris Paul And The New Orleans Hornets Need A Wake Up Call | Swarm & Sting | A New Orleans Hornets Blog

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.