Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, the two “point guards” for the New Orleans Pelicans. One is considered by the fan base to be part of the future, the other is considered a terrible fit so far. Pelicans fans have been increasingly frustrated with Tyreke Evans’ ability to run the offense, and increasingly pleased with the progress of Jrue Holiday. But if we look at their numbers side by side, Evans is the one who actually looks better.
[one_third last=”no”][table id=83 /][/one_third] Their scoring efficiency is nearly identical. The one big thing missing from Tyreke’s offensive repertoire was a jumpshot, but this season he is shooting a career best 35.6% on jumpshots, 38.2% from deep. With a career best PER of 18.5, which is higher than former All-Stars Klay Thompson and Jeff Teague, it is hard to question Evans’ individual production. When Dell Demps claims he won’t take back lesser talent for guys in a trade, you can see his asking price for a guy like Evans might be higher than you think.
The offensive and defensive ratings can be a little deceiving; just looking at their individual ratings and it would appear the Pels are better with Evans on the court. But if we look at Holiday’s rating starting from the moment Evans returned from injury (12/1), his Ortg jumps up to 104.4 (same as Evans) and his Drtg drops down to 103.4, giving him a better net-rating than Evans. Holiday was around for the horrendous start to the season when everyone was hurt, so of course his net rating would be lower.
But even though Tyreke’s individual numbers are pretty good this year, key stats standout as red flags when we talk about his “fit” running the offense. For instance, Evans’ turnover numbers are very high…towards the top of the league for guards who get regular minutes high. Jrue Holiday’s name, on the other hand, is much farther down that list. In fact, Evans’ TOV% is at a career high 17.4%. If we talk about fit in a system that emphasizes quick decisions, that’s a pretty big red flag.
Another red flag that pops up is pace. As Ryan Schwan and Nick Lewellen discussed on the most recent In The No podcast, when we talk about pace we aren’t talking about transition, we are talking about finding a good shot early. Push the ball up the court, get in the paint, if there isn’t something there, reset the offense. Tyreke has not done that at all this year. When he does probe, he resets so slowly that by the time he’s set again there are less than 10secs left on the shot clock. Now Jrue Holiday isn’t the best probe-guy either, but the numbers are a little damning for Evans. When Holiday is on the court, the Pels have a pace of 98.33 possessions/48mins, just under the Clippers. When Evans is on, the Pels have a pace of 95.76, which would be 25th in the league.
Whether Evans or Holiday should run the offense isn’t the question, that has been answered for me. But what do you do with Tyreke Evans if he isn’t the point? Fans aren’t sure whether to trade him or switch him to the super sub role. Meanwhile the coaching staff has yet to make many changes, as Evans remains the starter and Holiday continues to come off the bench, but the recent injury to Eric Gordon could give the team the unique opportunity to play around with lineups, and it looks like Holiday could start his first game in awhile tonight against the Detroit Pistons.
Holiday and Evans do not play too much next to each other, but the numbers are very promising. They play better with each other than not.
Jrue Holiday:
[table id=85 /]
Tyreke Evans:
[table id=86 /]
These numbers are just for this season, but they are consistent with the last two years in that they are better with each other. With all eyes on the future, getting a better vision of how these two will work next to each other in this system (without Eric Gordon who, for all intents and purposes, will not be here next year) is something for fans and media to pay attention to, especially in this critical stretch of home games. As Jason Calmes has pointed out, Evans is better suited to come off the bench, maybe this is the start of the transition back to that role. I guess we’ll find out.
Oh and Flock Up for this homestand for real.
7 responses to “A Focus on the Point”
I guess this came out before last night’s game, where Tyreke was at his best (helping AD to be his best), and Jrue had an off game: Out of 107 players, AD’s Daily Score was 3rd, Reke’s (behind CP3 & Marc Gasol) was 6th (behind LBJ), and Jrue was 77th (behind Quincy Acy).
Reke’s RPM of 2.27 would place him 10th among PGs, behind Isaiah Thomas & ahead of Kemba Walker, whereas Jrue is 28th (behind Goran Dragic & ahead of TJ McConnell).
Nor am I impressed with writing off Jrue’s wretched November: Jrue was supposedly healthy from start of training camp, as was AD, Gordon, & Ryno. In theory a player’s advanced stats could easily be improved by shortened mins — as indeed, Jrue has thrived as a back-up once Tyreke rejoined the team. And guess what” The Pels desperately needed Jrue to carry the team in Nov; had he done so we wouldn’t now be in play-off/lottery limbo. But, I know, I am forgetting that he was on mins restrictions. Now with Jrue off his restrictions, maybe Gentry knows something more than we do about Jrue’s fragile psyche. Meanwhile, Reke came back as a starter not being fully recovered – obviously – and, in fact, last night’s game was the 1st all year where he seemed to have his old quickness back.
In fact it is easy to explain Reke’s lower RPM this year: down to 2.27 from last year’s 3.15 – he had two knee operations since last season, one at the start of the season. Meanwhile how do we explain the collapse in Jrue’s RMP from 3.22 during last year (when he supposedly playing on a bum leg) to a uninspired -0.36 this year, when he has supposedly been healthy all year? I know, I know, the standard answer: “But he was superb in December!”
I guess this comment came out before last night’s game against the Bucks 😉
6thMan Couple things:
yes I put this up before the game, and like you said, not one of Jrue’s best performances shooting-wise, and one of Tyreke’s better games. Evans is having a good statistical year, even better than Holiday’s.
The Pels did not “desperately need” Holiday to carry them through November. (I know you mentioned this, but don’t forget) Holiday was getting 20 minutes a night, he couldn’t carry the team if he tried (and I think he was trying to in the minutes he was getting, trying to do too much IMO). Even if you argue he was supposedly healthy this whole time, he was on a medical restriction for all but 3 weeks of the season so far. The Pels needed defense and some real effort in Novemeber, but they couldn’t figure it out.
Reke hasn’t been fully healthy either, as you said the Pistons game was the 1st all year he’s looked really sharp and quick in his decisions (which this system demands), and if he continues to play like that then I’ll be happy. But we have to see if the Pistons’ game can be his norm, not what his norm has been up to this point.
I’m not too concerned with either Jrue or Evans’ drop in RPM. RPM isn’t the end all be all, there are many problems with it, and I’m not the biggest fan. Reke’s rpm is down not just because he “isn’t 100%” but because, like everyone else on the team, he’s had a hard time adjusting to playing effectively in this style of basketball. If he cuts down on the turnovers (career high turnover%) his will go back up. Holiday’s decreased rpm is a little more complicated because it dropped so much, but being on a minute restriction with a backcourt of ish smith, toney douglas, eric gordon, and alonzo gee for two months while adjusting to a new style of play on both ends of the court and a brand new role coming off the bench is a lot to deal with. The fact that he’s been protected so much this season shows how valuable the franchise views him.
Anyway, regardless of who is the point or on the bench or at the 2 between these two, how they are used and how they play in this stretch without Gordon is just something to keep an eye on going forward, that’s all I was saying.
jgman 6thMan Jrue basically was on 25 min restriction in Nov & was ineffective. Meanwhile he was gangbusters in Dec, although Oleh just pointed out his last 9 games are a distinct cut below the previous 13. My main pt: I have no patience with all the talk about Jrue’s potential. Reke carried the team with AD into playoffs last yr, 19-11 finish. Just want to see a similar performance over 30 games by Jrue. Btw, two clear advantages of RPM: Unlike PER, it attempts to include D and unlike all the stats on lical Pels blogs it can’t be cherry-picked (like discounting a player’s worst month).
It is a shame you feel the need to insult people when attempting to make a point. If you make it well, you do not need to resort to poor rhetorical tricks that do not work.
Jason Calmes I am not at all sorry for insulting Jrue but think he’s big enough to take it, if he even reads BSS. (Heard unofficially that he was a TBW guy.) Meanwhile Graham and I were in the middle of a good exchange – so your point is what?
I made point already.