It is no coincidence that I am writing this piece two days before we reach what I stated was The Point of No Return. A month ago, I wrote a piece setting a target days of January 9th for the Pelicans to decide which direction to take, and set a win total of 13 as the bare minimum for what they would need to have to take the path that said ‘Playoffs’ over the one that said ‘Blow it up’. They have one game before that set date and they are at 11 wins, so you know which direction I think should be pursued.
I also don’t think that it is a coincidence that Gentry used the phrase ‘Point of No Return’ two weeks ago when discussing this team. Any good organization would set a timeline that would help guide future decisions, and with 10 day contracts available and almost all trade restrictions being gone on January 15th, they have to be nearing that point. As many of you know, my breaking point was after the Boston game when Tyreke Evans effectively said that he tried to play Gentry’s system and it just wasn’t him. This was a red flag to me. Since then, both parties have come out and said Tyreke is trying and it will take time, but I firmly believe that this is one of those points we will all look back to as a clear indicator that is was never going to work.
There are these inflection points in life all the time. When they happen, we often try to work through them or justify them. We tell ourselves that its a hiccup and a chance to change or grow. But then we look back at the relationship or our business or our chosen major weeks or months later with hindsight and say, “Yeah, I should’ve known right then.”
We’ve all done it, and I do not fault the staff or front office for doing what all humans do, but now the point of no return has come. Last night’s loss was an embarrassment and if a healthy Pelicans squad can’t beat a towel waving Mavericks team at home, then the idea that they can win 65% of their games moving forward and then do something positive in the playoffs is just laughable. It wouldn’t be optimism bias, it would be sheer lunacy, and a fireable offense if somebody even uttered those words.
So, I have advocated blowing the roster up, but some have confused that with tanking – my ex-podcast partner Ryan Schwan included. He argued in a recent tweet that getting the 5th pick instead of the 8th would not be worth the costs that come with tanking and its implications to your fans and players. But let me separate the two, because while they might both occur simultaneously, I am only arguing for the blow up, not the tank.
Blowing it up means that you look at this roster and see who clearly fits into your future. They have the attitude you want, the skill set you want, and the price tag that you can afford. You write those guys names on one side of the sheet of paper and the only way you consider giving them up is if you can get more guys who fit those things, or better versions of guys who fit those characteristics. On the other side of the piece of paper, you list the remaining guys. Those guys need to be moved immediately, unless they cost you assets that can help you put more players on the positive side of the paper.
That is ‘Blowing it Up’ in my opinion. And I label it that because one side of that piece of paper would have 2-4 names, and the other would have the majority of the roster. Tanking, meanwhile, is insuring that you do whatever it takes to finish with the least amount of wins so that you can have the most ping-pong balls. That is not something that I would be in favor of, now or ever. In its true form, that would mean playing bad players. That would emphasize not developing current players, and that would mean not playing or utilizing Anthony Davis in his full capacity Hence, I am not in favor of tanking.
I know many will ask, so I will beat you to the punch and list the players that would be on the positive side of the paper for me. Anthony Davis is there, obviously. Dante Cunningham is there as well, as is Quincy Pondexter. Jrue Holiday was there, and may still be, but I am waning. Somebody in the organization shared an insight with me about Holiday weeks ago that bothers me. I was told he loves winning, but doesn’t necessarily hate losing. Not the way that the greats do. Now, this is one person’s opinion, and others might disagree – I am sure Holiday would. But since then, I have been watching, and from afar I can’t say I disagree. Something about him being so concerned with getting bobbleheads for his wife after a tough home loss rubbed me the wrong way. Could be nothing, could be one of those moments we look back at months or years from now and say, “We should’ve known then….”
But Gentry, Dell, and others have a better feel than I do. I am not advocating for them to listen to me, but instead for them to get out that piece of paper and write down those names. Eliminate the optimism bias, accept sunk cost, try to be as objective as possible. It’s a hard job, but the point of no return is here and it is going to take tough decisions to get this train back on the tracks.
The train. Not the tank.
11 responses to “For Pelicans, Blowing it Up isn’t the Same as Tanking”
Well written and sad. Aside from the injuries to start our season and the likely ramifications of playing 2 games against the Warriors so early, I can’t remember being so disappointed with what we have compared to what we thought we would have at this point. Numerically, this may be the point of no return, but from the lack of urgency that I saw from section 103 last night, some of the players seem like they are already there.
This is the only direction for here and it’s obvious. I think everyone confuses blowing it up with the idea of the team being awful for the next 3-4 years.
We have AD, even if we blow the team up, the record could actually improve if the pieces make more sense and new players quickly buy in to the system.
The Warriors were terrible the year we drafted AD. Who remembers Marco’s game winner against a woeful warriors team that had us all convinced we would miss out on Davis?
12 months later they were a playoff team with Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green and they made a run at the Spurs.
Glad to see a new post from Big Mc. Can’t understand what he sees in DC, a Lance Thomas-like tweener, without Lance’s super-high motor. As to QPonn maybe it’s absence that makes the heart grow fonder. As to Reke, he looks gimpy and out-of-shape to me, but still outplayed all Pels except AD last night. The bigger point is no one is running Gentry’s O, except maybe the horrid, trigger-happy Norris Cole. No dribble penetration, no hard screens, no cutters – isos for iso-phobic AD – What O? I do agree about Jrue – probably the biggest flop in last night’s catastrophe. I too sense that he’s just not a gamer.
I agree with this piece. But the elephant in the room is not really addressed — is there a way to blow it up and get rid of all the parts that don’t fit (including Jrue) where they get enough talent in return and avoid taking on bad contracts to legitimately say that the “blow up” isn’t the start of a full blown 2-3 year rebuilding project? I’m not sure its even possible in the NBA to blow it up and trade all the bad pieces the Pel’s have without essentially bottoming out before building it back up. From MM’s earlier trade ideas and everything else I have read about realistic potential trades, a necessary part of the plan from “blow it up” to contention is to count on getting a great player in the draft, or amass humongous cap space and hope a real star will sign here — both of which are dicey propositions at best.
Wholesale roster changes may be the best choice among painful alternatives. Is there a third alternative that involves a mid-season firing of Dell and Gentry? (I wish there was an alternate universe where we could see what would have happened if they had hired more of a coach’s coach like Van Gundy. I’m not convince it would have been too bad at all. The guys are still talented….) Clearly Dell miscalculated on either or both of the roster and coaching decisions over the summer. Is it really wise to put him in charge of the critical blow up and rebuild decision?
LateNite504FC A ton of great questions in here. My personal belief is that you can get back inferior talent that fits better and plays with more passion and that would keep the team from being worse. I believe we have a lot of guys on this team whose bank account doesn’t match their accomplishments. Flip that script. Get hungry guys and/or guys with a chip on their shoulder. Even if they have less raw talent, I think they would compete at a higher level than these guys. Then, that would become infectious and make the guys we draft better, the guys we get in FA better, etc.
I think the Pelicans being 4 games out of the playoffs after the Indy loss means that we are not past the point of no return, and the point of no return continues to get pushed towards the trade deadline.
I still think there is a player/coaching style problem that goes beyond Xs and Os and into motivation, and has to be addressed by management.
504ever You are talking about having an outside chance at something nobody should want – 39 wins and a first round destruction.
That is not progress or something to strive for IMO. Getting the 8th seed was great last year because it showed an upwards trajectory and a first taste for some guys who needed it. There is literally nothing to be gained long term from grinding and winning 35-39 games this year and sneaking into the first round where you get embarrassed.
At least I hope our decision makers agree with that, because any sane person would.
I’ll take a middle road. You can make moves to get better that are divorced from the 2016 playoffs. That said, these can be spread out. That said, with the right moves maybe 65% is not off the table, though I doubt it. It just gets more difficult as it drags on, but that is the market.
Michael McNamara 504ever
At some point, the serious fans are going to get tired, move on and season ticket sales will suffer. Any game now the push for next season’s tickets will begin. Selling us this group again will never fly so you know there will be wholesale changes. None of us, including Mr. Benson, are getting any younger.
Michael McNamara 504ever
I am talking about when the point of no return kicks in for management. In addition to being 4 games out of 8th, the Pelicans were 5.5 games out of 7th and 7 games out of 6th with nearly 50 games left. There is a reasonable chance for the Pelicans to get that high in the standings this year. Therefore the point of no return hasn’t materialized for management, yet.
If there goal is to reach one of those benchmarks, then I have no faith in them. That is my point.
I agree that it likely hasn’t come for them, but that is a big part of why I have no faith in this franchise to reach elite status any time soon.