Alright guys, it’s time for a reality check. I know it’s hot and sexy to see boundless potential for the upcoming season, and I’ve heard a lot of reasons why: Alvin Gentry is going to implement a system that turns Eric Gordon into Eric Gordon, and Darren Erman will make Omer Asik into Dikembe freakin’ Motumbo! Jrue Holiday will play more games! Alonzo Gee has LeBron James-level talent, give or take one LeBron James worth of talent! We have Quincy, Cole and Cunningham all season and not a bench that resembles a bag of flaming poo! Ryan Anderson will rain death long-range death in volumes not seen since World War II!
I’ve heard them all(well, most of them) but I haven’t listed the one that leaves me the most floored when I hear it.
Anthony Davis is going to make a leap!
Good god, guys. Do you even know what you are asking? If you want a significant improvement from Davis – one that would actually move the needle over what he did last year, you’re asking him to post the greatest season ever. Seriously. Do you know who posted better PERs than Davis did last year? Three people: Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and LeBron James. That’s it. 10 total seasons from those 3 guys.
So that all we’re asking. “Hey Anthony! At age 22, do something the greatest players in the History of Basketball never managed to do before age 24. Oh, and do it better!”
It’s sick. And there’s another reason it’s ridiculous of us to expect it:
Most superstars go through a regression season where their production falls off after a huge spike. Here’s the list of major stars over the last 25 years, age 25 or younger, who posted a high PER season in their third or fourth season, and then suffered a significant regression season following it:
- Shaquille O’Neal
- Kevin Durant
- LeBron James
- Tracy McGrady (and he kept falling)
- Dirk Novitski
- Kobe Bryant
- Grant Hill
- Tim Duncan
- Chris Webber
- Amare Stoudemire
- Vince Carter
- Kevin Love
- Elton Brand
- Clyde Drexler
- Allen Iverson
Here’s the list that didn’t:
- Chris Paul
- Dwayne Wade
- Dwight Howard
- Michael Jordan
- Kevin Garnett
Now, I left a few off like Penny Hardaway and Derrick Rose who had spikes and then their bodies failed, but you can see the lists. Players trajectories aren’t always one way. They have down seasons. They are asked to do different things and it takes a while for them to adjust. (Hello? Gentry wants him shooting threes?)
So please, let’s pump the brakes a little bit on Davis. He’s amazing. He’s neck and neck with LeBron James and Durant as the best players in the game already. He can probably boost this teams wins total by a few games just by playing closer to the superstar minutes goal of 3000 than the 2400 he put up last year.
But can we really ask this much of him? Already?
9 responses to “Mining the Numbers: Pumping the Brakes on Davis”
Yes. Yes we can.
GOAT!!!!
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Davis to be better. PER may or may not reflect it; if he makes the leap from Anthony Davis, very good defender, to Anthony Davis, DPOY and anchor of a top ten defense (which should happen eventually), that will be a major improvement not reflected in PER. I don’t know if it’s this year, but it happens eventually. I also think, if this team runs like prior Gentry-associated teams, Davis should have a relative uptick in transition opportunities, where he is an absolute monster. I really don’t see a regression from a healthy Davis, even offensively.
Exactly!… You’re talking about PER here, which by the way 21 year old AD was looking like he might have the highest ever up until like the 60th game of the season!
Making the leap might just mean that AD is almost just as efficient while averaging 30 points a game.. Yeah I said it! I called it before last season that he would avg 24/25 points a game and with a faster pace and AD doing AD things he’s gonna drop 30 a game one of these seasons.
If AD wins MVP or DPOY, would you not
consider that “making a jump”? Both are very much in play this season!
Stop crunching the numbers and realize that what you have hoped and dreamed of is finally here in AD! He’s such a BEAST and a FREAK that he just seems unreal.
CoReMeGa Agreed. Barring less minutes or being injured insofar as he’s limited athletically, his counting stats will be better simply because of pace. His isolation, post, and midrange scoring (man, he hit a lot of contested midrange Js) may or may not be better. He may be less efficient as if we force the ball to him more, because it will be mostly be those sort of possessions if they aren’t in transition. The bottom line is I don’t see the Monty Williams system as the ideal system for his skills. I think Melo would have been great in it, it allows Iso scorers to do a lot. AD is good at that, and he was great against Golden State when that was primarily what he did. But he’s special off the ball. If we live in more chaos offensively, he will be better.
Normally love your work Ryan, but I’m not seeing this one. The difference between Davis and those other guys is none of them were SEVERELY underutilized, despite having historic seasons. Davis tied Westbrook for most made shots per game at 9.4 but Westbrook had almost 5 more misses per game.
Additionally, Davis didn’t even have the highest usage rate on his own team last season, despite being far and away their best player.
Let’s say Davis doesn’t even improve at all, but at the same time our pace gets faster, Gentry makes sure he takes at least 18-20 shots per game, and he gives Davis more time as a playmaker and forces the guards to defer to him, you’re telling me that ALONE isn’t worth at least 2-3 more points a game?
Most guys who emerge in their second season as stars tend to become over utilized and get their stats slightly inflated in their 3rd season, with Davis it’s completely the opposite.
I am always Mr positive with this team…
I like what Dell has brought here and turned this into a quick turnaround.
Many others wanted to go the 76ers mold.
And I like that method too.
But Im more of a fan of What Dell managed to do.
That being said…All this Championship talk and and expectations do get me nervous.
You said it…there might be a learning process still.
Ideally, yes …you want to hear Championships.
But if the Pelicans make the 7th or 8th seed. There are many that now will be disappointed n think they underachied. That’s CRAZY…in the west.
I think the team is on its way…and of course so is Davis.
The only point I think your missing is that Davis can still Take a Leap without having a career year based off numbers.
Wins make the leap
If he’s the leader of a 50+ win team…but doesn’t have the same statistical season…or even worst.
Doesn’t mean he didn’t take a leap in developing into an all time great.
But he’s a hardworking Young man…So I do believe he has what it takes.
Let’s go Pels…#takeflight
This is a big year for AD.
Monty did coddle him from expectations.
Gentry is ready to unleash Him
Is Davis ready for that extra attention n expectations? We shall see