I have been screaming it for weeks – on Twitter, on the podcast, and in the comments section as well, but it is time I put together a coherent piece with numbers that back up my hypothesis. For those who do not know what I am talking about, I have been on my soap box for quite some time now saying that the inconsistency from the Pelicans on the offensive end isn’t that hard to figure out. They are a team that has three high variance offensive player in Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, and Ryan Anderson (and a medium variance guy in Holiday) who can get red-hot and carry a team or get ice cold and sink the Pelicans. They are not unique in that manner, but when other high usage elite offensive players are off on a given night, they offset that by getting to the line. The Pelicans high usage guards and Ryan Anderson simply don’t do that.
Let’s throw Ryan Anderson aside for the purpose of this piece because stretch four’s aren’t on the court to get people in foul trouble and get to the line. And even though Jrue isn’t a super high variance player, he can be a tad inconsistent and his free throw rate is abysmal. The Pelicans three main guards rank 231st (Tyreke), 343rd (Gordon), and 376th (Jrue) in free throw rate amongst all NBA players. Of all current starting guards in the NBA with a usage rate of 19 or higher, only Avery Bradley ranks lower than Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon. There are 11 more guards and wing players in between those guys and Tyreke, but he is still in the bottom 25 percentile. And when you factor in that Tyreke only makes 68% of his free throws, it drops him back down the list. For example, Klay Thompson has a lower free throw rate by a decent margin and has taken 20 fewer free throws, but has made 16 more than Tyreke.
The three main guards on our team have made 231 free throws in 3,830 minutes of action this year. There are 9 guys in the NBA who have made more free throws than that by themselves this season. Russell Westbrook has made 238 in 1,140 minutes this year. Jimmy Butler, a guy who has a lower usage rate than both Holiday and Evans, has 289 made free throws in 1,831 minutes of action. So, in less than half the minutes and with lower usage, Butler gets to the line and makes more free throws than all three of our guards combined. It’s why Jimmy Butler can go 4-10 from the field, including 0-1 from three, and still drop 17 points in a win against Miami. He has games where he can’t hit too (15 games where he shot 40% or worse from the field), but he still remains efficient almost every night because of his ability to get to the line.
Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, also has 15 games where he shot 40% or worse from the field, but in those games he averaged just 1.2 free throw attempts. Tyreke Evans has had 18 such games and is averaging 2.9 free throw attempts in those games (making 2.1 of them). And finally, Eric Gordon has had 12 such games and he is averaging 1.6 free throw attempts in those games. Now, take some time to really think about that. About 40% of the time, our guards have a poor shooting day from the field, and in those games they are destined to be inefficient because, at most, they are only going to get 1-2 free points from the line. And not only do they fail to get free points for themselves, but they fail to help the Pelicans get into the bonus and they fail to get players from other teams in foul trouble.
There are so many benefits to getting to the line that go beyond the two attempts a player gets in that possession, but the Pelicans guards are the worst in the league as a unit when it comes to getting to the stripe. Now, we can waste time blaming the officials, but unless you want to propose some league wide conspiracy theory against the Pels, the truth is that the problem probably lies more with our guards than the officiating. Eric Gordon’s free throw rate has dramatically declined every year since his first knee injury. Tyreke Evans has a career low rate this season, but is average for his career and Jrue Holiday has consistently been amongst the worst in the league since he was drafted in 2009.
Luckily, Anthony Davis has bailed this team out somewhat by getting to the line nearly 7 times a game, but if the Pelicans want a more consistent offense long term, they will either have to subtract a high variance player or two for some low variance, consistent guys or the guards on this team will have to find ways to get to the line more. Gordon has the most potential to solve this problem long-term, because he at least has a track record of getting to the line at a very high rate. Tyreke has some room for growth as well, but he has had a tendency to avoid contact more and more as his career has gone on. As for Jrue, there is absolutely nothing in his history to suggest that he can even get to average with regard to higher usage starting guards.
So next time the Pelicans go through a drought or they underperform and you can’t understand why given all their offensive talent, just look at that column in between 3-pointers and offensive rebounds. Subtract Anthony Davis and Omer Asik’s free throw attempts and see what you have left. In Wednesday’s game against OKC, you would have had the number two – and those were both taken by Ryan Anderson. To take the leap, not only this year but for the next few years and beyond, this team is going to increase the free throw rate of its perimeter players and ball handlers. If they don’t, you will find yourself befuddled by our spurts of offensive ineptitude and frustrated by a team that can beat anybody or lose to anybody on a given night.
12 responses to “Lack of Free Throws From Guards Is Primary Reason for Offensive Inconsistency”
then the question becomes how to increase ftr.
The question is why don’t they get more FT attempts? Jrue and tyreke both regularly take it to the hole. And though Gordon has stayed behind the arc more recently, he’s hardly a pure catch n shoot guy. Why don’t they get more calls at the rim?
My own pet theory is that they, unlike Westbrook, all play below the rim and officials reward the high fliers who get knocked while they are hanging up in the air headed for a jam. Above the rim it’s an aerial ballet. Below it’s a rugby scrum…
New City Top guards/wings with regard to free throw rate include James Harden, Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, Jeff Teague, Gordon Hayward, Ty Lawson, Lou Williams, Isaiah Thomas, Cory Joseph, Manu Ginobli, DJ Augustin, CJ Watson, Mario Chalmers, Jeremy Lin
I can go on and on. Not exactly high flyers. If Jrue or Eri had a FT rate anything close to those guys, there would be no problem.
Good overview: My one disagreement is that our best chance of changing things may be with AD learning how to pick up his dribble off hard drives to the basket, then reversing/head faking the way Ryno is now doing regularly. Right now AD rarely drives — seems like 1-2 per game, (fewer than Ryno?) — preferring midrange J’s and lobs/put-backs. When he does drive (still mostly to his left) his signature move is to pick up the ball and shoot in one quick, often fade-away motion — a difficult shot that he manages to make a good % but one where he is rarely fouled. He is so long & so quick that teams only recourse would be to foul him were he to pick up his dribble and reverse, anywhere near the basket. Now, when teams clog the middle in PnR and AD’s midrange is misfiring (like last night) AD really does not have a go-to move likely to draw a foul — in other words, just what we need to break a scoring lull, and we are often left (for better or worse) with Tyreke, who is fearless, sometimes miraculous, but (as you rightly suggest) rarely fouled..I know AD is already doing so much for the team, and picking up his dribble in traffic is likely to increase his turnover rate; still, this one expanded dimension to AD’s game is likely our fastest route to the charity stripe.
BTW, just checked, and Pels now seem to be 17th in league in FTA’s (22.6). Just 2 more per game (why not from AD?) would put us equal with Harden’s Rockets (8th).
6thMan Several of those FT’s come from Asik (1st on the team in rate and 3rd in total attempts) and he misses a large percentage. As noted above, Tyreke is 2nd in attempts and he shoots relatively poorly too. Yes, other guys could increase their FT rates and that would help, but the guard has the ball in his hand and is the one attacking. That puts more pressure on a D.
You can mask the problem in a lot of different ways, and obviously get away with it on some or most nights, but without at least one guard or perimeter player who can get to the line at will, you will have droughts like the one we say last night and games where you lose to teams that you should beat.
adfly Get famous…..
Tyreke is so big and strong that it takes a lot for him to draw a foul.
He doesn’t exactly go flying like most guards that get fouled on a drive.
He just powers through.
This article is great! I watch the vast majority of the Pelicans games, and while it’s obvious that the offense stagnates sometimes, I hadn’t put together that the guards never get to the line. It’s surprising that Evans doesn’t as much as he drives. Where does Evans rank in drives per game?
josephplum He is near the top of the league, as are the Pelicans in general. They drive plenty, but their guards are all among the worst in the league when it comes to free throw attempts per drive.
Michael McNamara josephplum As if online fans are going to be able to solve the foul drawing problem, I just found this quick article:
http://www.businessinsider.com/james-harden-eurostep-2014-12 .
The fact that the author cites Wade, for whom I also searched, as comparable with Harden’s eurostep, leads me to think there might be something to learning a technique to draw a foul. The way Kerr talks in the article, it sounds like Durant’s outlawed rip-through. I don’t know if it is worth the time and energy for coaches to try to improve players ability to draw fouls when other elements, such as actually finishing could be improved on as well.
I do think there’s a little bit of reputation bias at play too; I’m no Gordon apologist, but earlier in the season when he was driving more, he did seem to get the short shrift on foul calls. And in Holiday’s case, less aggressive players who avoid contact tend not to get the close calls. Could be my homerism though.
Great statistical find, keeping an eye on it will be interesting.
For sure you can’t argue with facts. Now what’s the answer? I know Tyreke avoids contact because he isd not a confident free throw shooter. Example the end of the Thunder game. After missing two critical free throws he through ball away trying not to get foul, the last ten seconds of the game.