Last night, Mac sent out 2 tweets explaining how the Pelicans offense goes as their jump shooting goes because they do not go to the line and they do not have post scorers.
A lack of shooting has been a problem for the Pelicans all year. And while there are ways to run an effective offense without a surplus of shooting (see Memphis), the Pelicans players have been navigating through rush hour traffic in the lane all year. However, at a quick statistical glance, all is well with the Pelicans offense. According to Nylon Calculus, the Pelicans currently rank 8th in Offensive Efficiency. So to lament anything about the Pelicans offense would seem misguided. But that’s the thing: anyone who has watched the Pelicans offense sputter when defenses clamp down knows there are issues. And by simply selecting a filter on Nylon Calculus, these issues become apparent.
Offenses vs. Top 10 Defenses
*Numbers via Nylon Calculus
In the Pelicans games against top 10 defenses, their offense is the 12th worst – to be clear, this is not an abysmal number. But it’s certainly not good, and it’s an indicator that the Pelicans offense still has a long way to go. The Pelicans offense is predictable, and when it faces good defenses, it typically gets shut down. And spacing is a problem driving those issues.
The Ryno Effect
Last year, Jason Calmes took a look at the Ryno effect, which showed that the other Pelican players’ 3 point attempts did not decrease when he returned to the lineup; rather, Ryno’s 3s were just another layer on top of the 3 point attempts from others. In other words, if the other Pelicans shot 12 3 points per game with Ryno out of the lineup, his 8 or so 3 point attempts per game were simply added on top of that to equal 20 3PA per game. There was no opportunity cost resulting from Ryno’s shots, at least in terms of 3PA, for other players. But here’s the problem: there really aren’t any other options to shoot. Yes, Gordon has been fantastic from beyond the arc since coming back.. but who else is there? Tyreke gets 3s because defenses gift them to him, Jrue isn’t a volume shooter, Babbitt has a slow release and major defensive issues, Cunningham doesn’t shoot 3s, QPon has shot poorly in 3 of his 5 seasons (including this one), and Jimmer is at an unflattering 19% on the year. The cupboard is largely bare, so the offense so heavily depends on Ryno’s shooting. Just how much? Well, as the table below indicates, Ryan Anderson has made a larger percentage of his team’s 3s than any other player in the league.
Why It’s a Problem
Every year, 16 teams make the playoffs, and last year, 13 of the top 16 teams that made the playoffs were top 16 defenses. Every single one of the top 10 defenses made it and 13 of the top 14 defenses made it. Sure, it’s great to beat up on bad teams/defenses during the regular season, but in the playoffs, you are going to be facing top defenses every night. And when shooting is so highly concentrated in one player, a team’s 3 point production tends to be volatile. Spreading those 3s among several players (assuming you do, in fact, have multiple players capable of shooting these) is essentially diversifying that risk. The Pelicans do not have that option.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with statistics, the coefficient of variation formula is simply the standard deviation over the mean. So in this case, it’s a way to look at the volatility of team 3 point makes game to game relative to each team’s average shooting. The Pelicans are near the top of that list, meaning that their standard deviation, as it relates to their mean, is very high.
What This Means on the Court
It’s quite simple – Ryan Anderson is such a large part of our 3 point coalition that teams can simply pack the paint (because they aren’t scared of our other shooters) and either have one player stick with Ryno or perform wild closeouts once the ball gets kicked out to him. They aren’t scared of a Ryno pump fake and drive or just about any offensive action inside the 3 point line. On a team with multiple shooters, he can make an extra pass to another open shooters. But right now, aside from Gordon, we don’t have other reliable shooters. It’s why our offense falls apart versus great defenses and it’s why it will continue to fall apart until we find shooters to accompany our other players in the lineup.
18 responses to “Ryan Anderson and Shooting Risk”
2 things: (1) Ryno has played in 26 games this year: We are 13-4 when he makes more than 2 3s, and almost the opposite, 4-11, when he makes fewer than 2, and (Who would have guess it?) a perfect 7-7 when he makes 2. Do you think there’s a single stats from another player that is so compelling?
(2) Ryno is the 80th PF in the league based on Real +/-, with only 76ers Mbah a Moute (ranked 97th) playing comparable minutes; next “better” PF with big minutes is DWest @ ranked 61. Another stretch 4, Patrick Patterson is ranked 32.Last year, Ryno was the 26th ranked PF, so there’s been a huge decline this year, one hopes temporary based on his still recovering from last season’s neck injury.
One assumes that, since Ryno’s more offensive-minded PER is 16th ranked among PF, that the low Real +/- is picking up his woeful defense. Hence my sense, that when he does not make his 3s, that his D, along with his big minutes, is hurting the team — in other words, like the boy in the nursery rhyme, when he’s good he’s good, and when he’s bad . . . .
One last point — and maybe you can dig out the stats — but Ryno often looks totally gassed in 4th qrtrs: He was scoreless in 2nd half against the Mavs and had both shots attempts blocked in the 4th, and last night against the Clippers he did struggle to get off one step-back jumper last night, but I do wonder about the impact of what looks to be Ryno’s 4th qrtr struggles (once again, coupled with major mins).
To call the pelicans a jump shooting team is ludicrous. Points in the paint, AD/Tyreke, and lack of 3 point shooting proves that wrong. If you watch real jump shooting teams you can tell the difference.
sorry about the typo: Ryno has played 46 games
6thMan I’m not sure about the first one. I’d venture a guess and say that I think it is unlikely that the effect you listed is common.
I hope the decline, as you said, is temporary. It has been on both sides of the ball, but defense moreso than offense. His defense went from bad to abysmal.
I dug out the stats and Ryno actually shoots best from deep in the 2nd and 4th quarters. I’m guessing this is because he gets significant time, establishes himself.
tharp94897 I believe Mac was saying that our shooting is more volatile and affects us more b/c we don’t earn FTs, have post scorer. So I should’ve included that context (from other tweets). Fixed. But no, we are all well aware that this is not a shooting team.
Michael Pellissier 6thMan Just a word on Ryno’s 4th qrtr struggles: The team was dead in the water offensively last night as the 4th qrtr wound down. We had 2 D players with little O (Asik & Cunningham), and presumably 3 with O skills (Reke, EJ, and Ryno), but, as was the case in th 4th against the Mavs, Ryno looked totally gassed, without the legs to create the separation he needs even to launch a shot. I believe both his 4th qrtr attempts against the Mavs were blocked. Last night Tyreke found the effort to get to the hoop once, and EJ, playing against the historical pattern , did find the legs to produce — as he did with the big 3 against the Mavs. I am sure Ryno has had 4th qrtr moments this year (I don’t remember), but he has also had exceptionally quiet 4th qrtrs.
I think you have misidentified the casuality. I think Jimmer’s not making 3pt shots is more a function of him taking <1 attempt a game. Give him 4 three’s a game for 10 games, and I bet he makes near half of them. Unless he has some injury that they haven’t disclosed.
Its not the Ryno is talking all the 3’s because there are no other good options. Its that there are no good options because Ryno is taking all the 3’s.
I know they do win shares per 48. Can you calculate loss shares? Or what fraction of losses did we lose because somebody shot far below their average? I would be that Ryno would sit at the top of such a rating.
The splash brothers in Golden state work so well because they have multiple shooters taking multiple 3pt shots a game. Everybody gets in a chance to get in rythm, and because multiple people are taking the shots, the risk is distributed because the good and bad games are independent of each other.
benconomics Getting “in rhythm” is a thing, and 19% surely shortchanges Jimmer’s shooting ability. But to give him 4 3s a game would be to give him sig. minutes, which is accompanied by other issues.. mainly defense.
I completely disagree about Ryno hogging 3s. If your argument were the case, minutes/games without Ryno would be accompanied by good 3 point shooting. See the picture below.
The issue w/ Ryno is not his inconsistency, it is his inconsistency coupled with his bad defense. When he is not shooting well, he doesn’t offer much.
Steph and Klay shoot well b/c they are great shooters. But yes, there is less volatility when shooting is spread among more players. Which was the whole point of my article.
[…] Read it here: http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/2015/01/31/ryan-anderson-and-shooting-risk/ […]
Michael Pellissier benconomics I think to your point, JImmer. I think I would prefer a rotation with Ryno playing closer to 25 min a game, and Jimmer closer to 15. Jimmer was shooting poorly until 12/30, but since them he’s been shooting 45 from the floor and all of his shots (save his 3) have reverted to the mean. Give him 2-3 open looks and he’ll revert to there too. The main problem though is the sets that Monty runs aren’t the type that generate a ton of open 3’s, especially for guards. The wing player often just sit there waiting. There’s very few off the ball screens.. And they almost never shoot in transition.
I’d be sure to stagger the rotations so they didn’t overlap on the floor too much (giving more minutes to Withey or Ajinca, but it’d take Withey). That helps address the shooting risk without increasing the defensive exposure too much.
I do appreciate the analysis of variance. I’m a professor of economics, so I think we can learn a lot more from the data and avoid our confirmation biases that we bring into an eyeball test.
This article just makes me want to steal McLemore from the Kings.
benconomics Michael Pellissier Some of my hesitance with Jimmer revolves around believing that the “mean” we have established for his 3 point shooting because of his reputation and previous numbers is inaccurate. I’ve always thought he was a good shooter, but I’m not sure if he’s a good shooter without volume, which is to your point.. but my point is that I don’t think he’s someone who merits volume at an NBA level. I could easily be wrong about that, but to me, to get Jimmer to that level would be to see Brian Roberts 2.0, which is hardly what I want. But again, I say that knowing that Jimmer could very well be hampered by a lack of opportunity.
I think the best way to address the shooting risk is to acquire more 3 point shooting outside the organization. And some of the spacing issues can be solved without players being hot on a particular night: the threat of a good shooter is usually enough. Someone like Randy Foye comes to mind. Mo Williams also.
Professor of econ? That’s really cool. I loved economics. Learned coefficient of variation through my first actuarial exam and am currently studying for insurance tests that often address the concept of risk – namely, the uncertainty that accompanies various activities in business and how this uncertainty affects the decision-making of organizations.
ryanschwan Ben McLemore was NOT who I expected to see below Ryno. I was shocked. This is fantasy, but can you imagine Korver spacing the floor and sprinting around screens to get 3s? Drools.
Michael Pellissier ryanschwan McLemore is only so high because of how terrible the rest of his team is from behind the arc. Fewest 3-pointers made per game of any guy on this list. Not saying I wouldn’t want him for free, but his place on this list has as much to do with his teammates as him.
Michael McNamara Michael Pellissier ryanschwan he’s not the only one. Frye, Conley also on horrible 3 pt shooting teams. And because this is based on totals, there’s always some of it that is minutes/games played related.
Michael Pellissier benconomics Cool stuff. I mainly study health economics and crime.
Regarding Jimmer, he doesn’t need large volume to be efficient from 3, but he needs some consistency. For instance for the kings he was shooting 50 percent from 3 last season and he planned only around 10-15 min a game. Randy Ayers, who famoulsy pushed korver to develop his midrange before taking 3’s has been at work in encouraging mid range shots and long 2’s.
benconomics Michael Pellissier I can live with 10-15 minutes for Jimmer.
I was unaware of Ayers’ work with Korver: that’s a cool tidbit of info. Thanks for the contributions.
Michael Pellissier benconomics http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/700-level/nets-traded-kyle-korver-and-got-copy-machine