Making the Leap

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Published: July 31, 2013

Yesterday, James Grayson took a look at the Pelican push for the playoffs. Today, I look at whether the leap that will be required of the Pelicans this season is feasible from a historical perspective.  Can a team that finished with a 27-55 record and as the 5th worst team in the NBA make the jump to the playoffs in its next season?

There are two questions in play.

1. How much would the Pelicans win total have to improve in order to reach the playoffs?

The Western Conference is very, very good. So good, in fact, that the Western Conference, as a whole, registered a 262-188 record versus the Eastern Conference last year. In the D League- er, Eastern Conference, only 3 teams (Miami, New York, and Indiana) recorded a winning record versus the West and one (Atlanta) broke even. To give an even better idea of the disparity in conference strength, New York was 37-15 versus its Eastern Conference opponents and 17-13 versus Western Conference ones. ‘Nuff said.

Here is the amount of wins registered by the last ten #8 seeds from the Western Conference.

     Year     Wins
2003-04 43
2004-05 45
2005-06 44
2006-07 42
2007-08 50
2008-09 48
2009-10 50
2010-11 46
2011-12   45*
2012-13 45

*Utah’s adjusted win total from the shortened season

The amount of wins necessary to make the playoffs is going to vary year-to-year, but the mean of this data set is just under 46 wins per season, and looking at the data, 46 wins seems like a good benchmark. In order for the Pelicans to reach the 46 win benchmark, they would have to increase their win total by 19 (from 27 to 46).

2. How many teams have made a jump of this magnitude in the past?

I compiled data from 2002-03 to last season in order to get an idea of how many teams have made a jump of 19 or more wins from one season to the next.  2002-03 served as the starting point and every year after that gives, in wins, the improvement or regression of each team.

Note that Charlotte Bobcats have no record in 2003-04. Their first season as an expansion team was in 2004-05.

Example of how to read this table: New Orleans, in 2002-03, finished with 47 wins. The next year, 2003-04, they finished with 41 wins. This is where the value under 2003-04 (-6) comes from. Easy enough. I left out the wins from the first year as to avoid confusion for those of you who will skip reading explanation sections, and I don’t feel bad, because you probably aren’t reading this.

Team 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Atlanta -7 -15 13 4 7 10 6 -9 6 -6
Boston -8 9 -12 -9 42 -4 -12 6 -8 -7
Brooklyn -2 -5 7 -8 -7 0 -22 12 3 22
Charlotte 18 8 7 -1 3 9 -10 -25 12
Chicago -7 24 -6 8 -16 8 0 21 0 -17
Cleveland 18 7 8 0 -5 21 -5 -42 7 -2
Dallas -8 6 2 7 -16 -1 5 2 -12 -4
Denver 26 6 -5 1 5 4 -1 -3 -3 10
Detroit 4 0 10 -11 6 -20 -12 3 1 -2
Golden State -1 -3 0 8 6 -19 -3 10 -7 18
Houston 2 6 -17 18 3 -2 -11 1 -1 3
Indiana 13 -17 -3 -6 1 0 -4 5 15 -3
LA Clippers 1 9 10 -7 -17 -4 10 3 18 6
LA Lakers 6 -22 11 -3 15 8 -8 0 -6 -6
Memphis 22 -5 4 -27 0 2 16 6 5 5
Miami 17 17 -7 -8 -29 28 4 11 -1 9
Milwaukee -1 -11 10 -12 -2 8 12 -11 4 -1
Minnesota 7 -14 -11 -1 -10 2 -9 2 15 -1
New Orleans -6 -23 20 1 17 -7 -12 9 -20 1
New York 2 -6 -10 10 -10 9 -3 13 3 9
Oklahoma City -3 15 -17 -4 -11 3 27 5 3 2
Orlando -21 15 0 4 12 7 0 -7 -6 -26
Philadelphia -15 10 -5 -3 5 1 -14 14 2 -9
Phoenix -15 33 -8 7 -6 -9 8 -14 1 -16
Portland -9 -14 -6 11 9 13 -4 -2 -13 -2
Sacramento -4 -5 -6 -11 5 -21 8 -1 3 1
San Antonio -3 2 4 -5 -2 -2 -4 11 1 -4
Toronto 9 0 -6 20 -6 -8 7 -18 7 5
Utah -5 -16 15 10 3 -6 5 -14 6 -2
Washington -12 20 -3 -1 2 -24 7 -3 2 4

Notes

  • Wins from the lockout-shortened season of 2011-12 were adjusted to an 82 game format. The numbers were then rounded for simplification.
  • The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers missed a game last year due to the Boston bombing. These win totals were also adjusted to 82 games.
  • Some teams have rebranded since the beginning of the study. I chose to use the current cities/names.

Results

13 squads made a jump of 19 games or more over the time period covered in the analysis

Every year besides the season of the lockout featured a team who jumped at least 19 wins

Teams of Interest

Team     Wins Before     Wins After Outcome
Denver Nuggets 17 43 Lost 1st Round
Memphis Grizzlies 28 50 Lost 1st Round
Boston Celtics 24 66 Won NBA Championship
Brooklyn Nets  27* 49 Lost 1st Round
Chicago Bulls (04-05) 23 47 Lost 1st Round
Miami Heat 15 43 Lost 1st Round
Oklahoma City Thunder 23 50 Lost 1st Round
Phoenix Suns 29 62 Lost Conference Finals
Toronto Raptors 27 47 Lost 1st Round
Washington Bullets 25 45 Lost Conference Semis

 

*Brooklyn’s 27 wins are an adjusted total from the lockout-shortened campaign from 2011-2012.

The 10 teams that I’m interested in are listed above, and each has something in common- each made the playoffs a year after missing them, and each was nowhere near playoff contention the year before it took the leap. The other 3 (out of the 13 teams from above) either were already in the playoffs (Cleveland and Chicago 10-11) or had jumps that weren’t enough to enter postseason play (our own New Orleans squad from CP3’s rookie season).

Also, Boston is included because it fits the criteria, but their ridiculous jump resulted from the additions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.

What you’ll find from the data above is that most of these teams were putrid the season before their leap. Remember, last year’s unhealthy/inexperienced New Orleans squad had 27 wins, and no team listed above posted a significantly better record  in its down year than our squad did last year. Most of these teams were also ousted in the first round of the playoffs.

Conclusion

The findings from this analysis are simultaneously encouraging and discouraging. The notion that a team in the Pelicans position ( <30 wins) cannot improve itself to playoff contention after a bad year is undoubtedly wrong- in the past 10 seasons, it has happened virtually every year.  However, it has happened roughly only once per year. There is no mandate dictating how many teams will make “the leap,” but if there is only roughly one team per year improving its win total by the amount New Orleans will likely need to make the playoffs, the odds are not exactly stacked in our favor.

The intention of this analysis, however, was not to determine whether or not we enter the playoffs this year; rather, it was to ascertain whether it’s possible to make the leap in the standings that the Pelicans will likely have to make, and the answer is a resounding yes. And for me, that’s enough.



 

 

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