New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections – One Final Look

Published: April 11, 2013

With just one week until the end of the 2012-13 NBA regular season, we take one last look at where the Hornets stand among the other lottery-bound teams.


First, each potential lottery team’s record and remaining schedule:

  1. Charlotte Bobcats (18-60) – at Detroit, vs. Milwaukee, vs. New York, vs. Cleveland
  2. Orlando Magic (20-59)vs. Boston, vs. Chicago, at Miami
  3. Phoenix Suns (24-55) – at Minnesota, vs. Houston, at Denver
  4. Cleveland Cavaliers (24-54) – vs. New York, at Philadelphia, vs. Miami, at Charlotte
  5. Detroit Pistons (27-52) – vs. Charlotte, vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn
  6. New Orleans Hornets (27-52) – vs. LA Clippers, vs. Dallas, at Dallas
  7. Sacramento Kings (28-50) – at San Antonio, at Houston, at OKC, vs. LA Clippers
  8. Washington Wizards (29-50) – vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn, at Chicago
  9. Minnesota Timberwolves (29-49) – at Utah, vs. Phoenix, vs. Utah, at San Antonio
  10. Toronto Raptors (30-48) – vs. Chicago, vs. Brooklyn, at Atlanta, vs. Boston
  11. Philadelphia 76ers (31-47) – at Washington, vs. Cleveland, at Detroit, at Indiana
  12. Portland Trail Blazers (33-45) – vs. OKC, at Denver, at LA Clippers, vs. Golden State
  13. Dallas Mavericks (38-40) – vs. Denver, at New Orleans, vs. Memphis, vs. New Orleans
  14. Utah Jazz (41-38) – vs. Minnesota, at Minnesota, at Memphis
  15. Los Angeles Lakers (42-37) – vs. Golden State, vs. San Antonio, vs. Houston


Given the above data, we can place each of the bottom 11 teams into four tiers. Barring an entirely unexpected string of events, the teams in each tier won’t move into another tier by season’s end.

Tier 1: Charlotte and Orlando

Tier 2: Phoenix and Cleveland

Tier 3: Detroit, New Orleans, and Sacramento

Tier 4: Washington, Minnesota, Toronto, and Philadelphia

Portland, Dallas, and Utah/Los Angeles are each almost certainly locked into their current spots.


Final Projections + odds of receiving #1 pick

1.  Charlotte Bobcats (19-63)  25%

2. Orlando Magic (20-62)  19.9%

3. Phoenix Suns (24-58)  15.6%

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (25-57)  11.9%

5. New Orleans Hornets (27-55)  8.8%

6. Sacramento Kings (28-54)  6.3%

7. Detroit Pistons (29-53) 4.3%

8a. Washington Wizards (30-52)  2.25%

8b. Minnesota Timberwolves (30-52)  2.25%

10. Toronto Raptors (31-51)  1.1%

11. Philadelphia 76ers (32-50)  0.8%

12. Portland Trail Blazers (33-49)  0.7%

13. Dallas Mavericks (40-42)  0.6%

14. Utah Jazz (43-39)  0.5%


Note: The Hornets’ 0-3 projection down the stretch is heavily correlated to their current injury concerns. Vasquez admittedly had trouble playing through his injured ankle last night, and there is a strong chance that Davis may be shut down for the last week of the season after the knee sprain he suffered last night. If they are on the court and healthy by Sunday, I would expect them to beat the Mavericks in the team’s home finale.

((Update: Davis is done for the season.))


Leave your thoughts on how the standings will end up in the comments below!