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New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections – One Final Look

With just one week until the end of the 2012-13 NBA regular season, we take one last look at where the Hornets stand among the other lottery-bound teams.
First, each potential lottery team’s record and remaining schedule:
- Charlotte Bobcats (18-60) – at Detroit, vs. Milwaukee, vs. New York, vs. Cleveland
- Orlando Magic (20-59) – vs. Boston, vs. Chicago, at Miami
- Phoenix Suns (24-55) – at Minnesota, vs. Houston, at Denver
- Cleveland Cavaliers (24-54) – vs. New York, at Philadelphia, vs. Miami, at Charlotte
- Detroit Pistons (27-52) – vs. Charlotte, vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn
- New Orleans Hornets (27-52) – vs. LA Clippers, vs. Dallas, at Dallas
- Sacramento Kings (28-50) – at San Antonio, at Houston, at OKC, vs. LA Clippers
- Washington Wizards (29-50) – vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn, at Chicago
- Minnesota Timberwolves (29-49) – at Utah, vs. Phoenix, vs. Utah, at San Antonio
- Toronto Raptors (30-48) – vs. Chicago, vs. Brooklyn, at Atlanta, vs. Boston
- Philadelphia 76ers (31-47) – at Washington, vs. Cleveland, at Detroit, at Indiana
- Portland Trail Blazers (33-45) – vs. OKC, at Denver, at LA Clippers, vs. Golden State
- Dallas Mavericks (38-40) – vs. Denver, at New Orleans, vs. Memphis, vs. New Orleans
- Utah Jazz (41-38) – vs. Minnesota, at Minnesota, at Memphis
- Los Angeles Lakers (42-37) – vs. Golden State, vs. San Antonio, vs. Houston
Given the above data, we can place each of the bottom 11 teams into four tiers. Barring an entirely unexpected string of events, the teams in each tier won’t move into another tier by season’s end.
Tier 1: Charlotte and Orlando
Tier 2: Phoenix and Cleveland
Tier 3: Detroit, New Orleans, and Sacramento
Tier 4: Washington, Minnesota, Toronto, and Philadelphia
Portland, Dallas, and Utah/Los Angeles are each almost certainly locked into their current spots.
Final Projections + odds of receiving #1 pick
1. Charlotte Bobcats (19-63) 25%
2. Orlando Magic (20-62) 19.9%
3. Phoenix Suns (24-58) 15.6%
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (25-57) 11.9%
5. New Orleans Hornets (27-55) 8.8%
6. Sacramento Kings (28-54) 6.3%
7. Detroit Pistons (29-53) 4.3%
8a. Washington Wizards (30-52) 2.25%
8b. Minnesota Timberwolves (30-52) 2.25%
10. Toronto Raptors (31-51) 1.1%
11. Philadelphia 76ers (32-50) 0.8%
12. Portland Trail Blazers (33-49) 0.7%
13. Dallas Mavericks (40-42) 0.6%
14. Utah Jazz (43-39) 0.5%
Note: The Hornets’ 0-3 projection down the stretch is heavily correlated to their current injury concerns. Vasquez admittedly had trouble playing through his injured ankle last night, and there is a strong chance that Davis may be shut down for the last week of the season after the knee sprain he suffered last night. If they are on the court and healthy by Sunday, I would expect them to beat the Mavericks in the team’s home finale.
((Update: Davis is done for the season.))
Leave your thoughts on how the standings will end up in the comments below!
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