New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections (updated through games on 4/3/13)

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Published: March 5, 2013

With three quarters of the 2012-13 NBA season in the books, it’s impossible to avoid looking towards the 2013 NBA draft this summer. Given each team’s remaining schedule, where are the Hornets most likely to end up?

It’s a question on everyone’s minds, but likely one that not many want to talk about. Though many hoped for an outside shot at the playoffs back in October, the Hornets are back in the lottery again this season, destined for an anti-climatic final month of the season. The one thing that remains uncertain is how many ping pong balls the Pelicans will possess on Tuesday, May 21st. Looking at the current NBA standings, it appears that the Hornets could end up anywhere from the 3rd worst to 11th worst team, an incredibly wide range. However, by analyzing each team’s remaining schedule, we should be able to narrow that range down. First, let’s take a look at what we do know.

Charlotte and Orlando are horrible

The Bobcats currently sport the league’s worst record at 13-47, 3 1/2 games worse than Orlando’s 17-44 record. Orlando has a three game edge on the NBA’s third worst team, one that will be incredibly difficult to relinquish. Barring unforeseen circumstances, expect the Bobcats and Magic to own the best lottery odds in May.

Dallas, Portland, and the LA Lakers are uncatchable

Dallas, currently the league’s 12th worst team, leads the Hornets by 6 games in the standings and every other team between them and New Orleans by at least 2 1/2 games. While a couple of those other teams may have a chance to pass the Mavs, the Hornets definitely do not. There is virtually no chance that the Hornets will pick any worse than 11th.

The rest is a mess

A gap of just four games separates Washington at 19-39, Philadelphia at 23-35, and the seven other teams in between. In particular, five teams are separated by just one game – Washington, Cleveland, Sacramento, Phoenix, and New Orleans. One unexpected outcome between now and the season’s end could have drastic consequences on the draft order. As a result, it becomes difficult to project what that order may fall into, but each team’s remaining schedule should be of great use in order to make an educated projection. Let’s take a closer look at these nine teams in question.

  • Washington Wizards (19-39)
    • 10 home, 14 road
    • 7 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 11
    • Expected W/L: 27-55
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (20-40)
    • 12 home, 10 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 26-56
  • Sacramento Kings (21-40)
    • 13 home, 8 road
    • 4 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 5
    • Expected W/L: 25-57
  • New Orleans Hornets (21-40)
    • 11 home, 10 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 5
    • Expected W/L: 26-56
  • Phoenix Suns (21-39)
    • 12 home, 10 road
    • 4 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 27-55
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (20-36)
    • 14 home, 12 road
    • 9 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 28-54
  • Detroit Pistons (23-39)
    • 8 home, 12 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 29-53
  • Toronto Raptors (23-38)
    • 10 home, 11 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 9
    • Expected W/L: 31-51
  • Philadelphia 76ers (23-35)
    • 9 home, 15 road
    • 8 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 33-49

 

Given the above data, here are my projections for the NBA draft lottery order as of Tuesday, March 5th, 2013, with each team’s chance at landing the #1 pick:

 

1. Charlotte Bobcats (17-65)  25.0%

2. Orlando Magic (21-61)  19.9%

3. Sacramento Kings (25-57)  15.6%

4a. Cleveland Cavaliers (26-56)  10.35%

4b. New Orleans Pelicans (26-56)  10.35%

6a. Washington Wizards (27-55)  5.3%

6b. Phoenix Suns (27-55)  5.3%

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-54)  2.8%

9. Detroit Pistons (29-53)  1.7%

10. Toronto Raptors (31-51)  1.1%

11. Philadelphia 76ers (33-49)  0.8%

12. Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)  0.7%

13. Dallas Mavericks (37-45)  0.6%

14. Los Angeles Lakers (42-40) 0.5%

 

As you can see, a one-game difference in the standings could have immense residual impacts on the draft lottery. In fact, before last night’s “unexpected” loss to the Magic, I projected the Hornets to finish 27-55, which would have created a 3-way tie for the 5th-worst record, giving each of those three teams roughly a 6.45% chance at the #1 pick. By adding one more loss to the Hornets’ projection, they move into a 2-way tie for the 4th-worst record, earning them a 10.35% chance at that top pick, a difference of nearly 4%. Even if they don’t luck into the top pick for a second straight season, that one loss could mean the difference between the 7th pick and the 4th pick (going by these projections). I don’t need to explain to you how significant that could end up being, because Ryan Schwan does it for us every summer.

An extra four percent or three draft slots higher for just one additional loss on a Monday night against a bottom-5 NBA team? Even the most win-hungry of Hornets fans have to be able to see the benefit in that. While I am not urging any Hornets fans to root for their team to lose, it is important to see the positive long-term effects that losses could have on the Pelicans’ NBA draft position this summer.

 

Between now and the end of the season, I will periodically provide updated projections for the lottery teams’ final records and resulting lottery order given additional game data. Teams that see their record projection change will be in bold, and a brief explanation will be given.

 

UPDATE (3/8/13)

1. Charlotte Bobcats (17-65)  25.0%

2. Orlando Magic (21-61)  19.9%

3. Sacramento Kings (25-57)  15.6%

4. New Orleans Pelicans (26-56)  11.9%

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (27-55)  8.8%  – 3/6/13 victory over Jazz

6a. Washington Wizards (27-55)  5.3%

6b. Phoenix Suns (27-55)  5.3%

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-54)  2.8%

9. Detroit Pistons (29-53)  1.7%

10. Toronto Raptors (31-51)  1.1%

11. Philadelphia 76ers (33-49)  0.8%

12. Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)  0.7%

13. Dallas Mavericks (37-45)  0.6%

14. Los Angeles Lakers (42-40) 0.5%

 

UPDATE (3/14/13)

1. Charlotte Bobcats (18-64)  25.0% – 3/12/13 win over Celtics

2. Orlando Magic (22-60)  19.9%3/10/13 win over 76ers

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (25-57)  15.6%  – Kyrie Irving injury

4a. New Orleans Pelicans (26-56)  10.35%

4b. Phoenix Suns (26-56)  10.35%  Marcin Gortat injury

6a. Sacramento Kings (27-55)  5.3% – 3/13/13 win over Bulls

6b. Washington Wizards (27-55)  5.3%

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-54)  2.8%

9. Detroit Pistons (29-53)  1.7%

10. Toronto Raptors (31-51)  1.1%

11. Philadelphia 76ers (32-50)  0.8% – 3/10/13 loss to Magic

12. Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)  0.7%

13. Dallas Mavericks (38-44)  0.6% – 3/12/13 win over Milwaukee

14. Utah Jazz (41-41) 0.5%  – Projected to miss the playoffs instead of Lakers

 

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (22-42)
    • 9 home, 9 road
    • 4 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 6
    • Expected W/L: 25-57
  • New Orleans Hornets (22-43)
    • 9 home, 8 road
    • 2 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 5
    • Expected W/L: 26-56
  • Phoenix Suns (22-43)
    • 9 home, 8 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 6
    • Expected W/L: 26-56
  • Sacramento Kings (23-43)
    • 9 home, 7 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 3
    • Expected W/L: 27-55
  • Washington Wizards (21-42)
    • 8 home, 11 road
    • 5 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 27-55
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (22-40)
    • 9 home, 11 road
    • 7 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 7
    • Expected W/L: 28-54
  • Detroit Pistons (23-44)
    • 6 home, 9 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 8
    • Expected W/L: 29-53
  • Toronto Raptors (25-40)
    • 9 home, 8 road
    • 4 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 7
    • Expected W/L: 31-51
  • Philadelphia 76ers (24-40)
    • 6 home, 12 road
    • 6 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 7
    • Expected W/L: 32-50

 

UPDATE (3/19/13)

1. Charlotte Bobcats (18-64)  25.0%

2. Orlando Magic (22-60)  19.9%

3a. Cleveland Cavaliers (25-57)  – 13.75%

3b. New Orleans Pelicans (25-57)  – 13.75%

5a. Phoenix Suns (27-55)  6.47 %

5b. Sacramento Kings (27-55)  6.47% 

5c. Washington Wizards (27-55)  6.47%

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-54)  2.8%

9. Detroit Pistons (29-53)  1.7%

10. Toronto Raptors (31-51)  1.1%

11. Philadelphia 76ers (33-49)  0.8%

12. Portland Trail Blazers (37-45)  0.7%

13. Dallas Mavericks (39-43)  0.6%

14. Utah Jazz (42-40) 0.5%

 

UPDATE 4/4/13

1.  Charlotte Bobcats (19-63)  25%

2. Orlando Magic (20-62)  19.9%

3a. Cleveland Cavaliers (24-58)  13.75%

3b. Phoenix Suns (24-58)  13.75%

5a. Detroit Pistons (27-55) 7.55%

5b. New Orleans Hornets (27-55)  7.55%

7a. Sacramento Kings (29-53)  2.93%

7b. Washington Wizards (29-53)  2.93%

7c. Toronto Raptors (29-53)  2.93%

10a. Minnesota Timberwolves (31-51)  0.95%

10b. Philadelphia 76ers (31-51)  0.95%

12. Portland Trail Blazers (35-47)  0.7%

13. Dallas Mavericks (39-43)  0.6%

14. Utah Jazz (42-40)  0.5%

 

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (22-52)
    • 4 home, 4 road
    • 2 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 4
  • Phoenix Suns (23-52)
    • 3 home, 4 road
    • 1 back-to-back
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 1
  • Detroit Pistons (25-51)
    • 3 home, 3 road
    • 1 back-to-back
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 4
  • New Orleans Hornets (26-49)
    • 2 home, 5 road
    • 1 back-to-back
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 2
  • Sacramento Kings (27-48)
    • 4 home, 3 road
    • 1 back-to-back
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 1
  • Washington Wizards (28-47)
    • 3 home, 4 road
    • 2 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 1
  • Toronto Raptors (28-47)
    • 3 home, 4 road
    • 2 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 1
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (28-46)
    • 4 home, 4 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 3
  • Philadelphia 76ers (30-44)
    • 2 home, 6 road
    • 3 back-to-backs
    • Games vs. bottom-11 teams remaining: 3

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