In the NO Podcast Episode 113: Playoffs? Is it so Crazy?

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Published: January 18, 2013
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Michael and I talk about the recent winning, talk about whether the Playoffs are even a remote possibility, Address Anthony Davis’ short playing time, recap the wins in Philly and Boston, address the real non-Gordony reason for the winning, and play which PG do you want: Jrue Holiday or Rajon Rondo. Then we take some of the messages you’ve left for us about whether the Hornets should hire an offensive Guru, what they could offer for Kyle Lowry, and last, we answer two questions about the Draft, Draft, Draft! Oh, I love the draft. In particular we do our favorite college players, talk about best fits, and mention players you should look for.

Oh, and then we preview the Warriors.

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17 comments
Mason Ginsberg
Mason Ginsberg

I hate to be Mr. Negative here (though McNamara will probably appreciate me taking the burden off of his shoulders), but this playoff talk is getting out of hand. The Hornets would have to finish the season with a better winning percentage over their final 43 games than every team but the Heat, Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder currently have. Think about that. Are the Hornets, even when completely healthy, anywhere near the 5th best team in the NBA right now? No. We saw as much against the Knicks last Sunday. While the team's recent play of late is incredibly promising for the future, we still have to be realistic in regards to this season.

WhoDatHornet96
WhoDatHornet96

My god mason, 0-2 to the nets? Chicago and Golden State? If Chicago has derrick rose then yeah. But cmon

BRhornet
BRhornet

i know its not likely. I know that the hornets arent a top 5 team but every game night the hornets just need to be the better team for that one night. Being a fan and not a very objective one, i have to say going into any game i dont feel like the hornets will definitely lose, unless its okc (luckily we just play them once more). I just like the possibility of "it" happening, its been awhile (havent felt this good since walking into game 7 in '08).

Michael McNamara
Michael McNamara

But one thing to factor in is the schedule. Hornets have played the toughest schedule in the NBA and it is going to get a LOT easier. In a vacuum, against a random schedule, I would agree that it is far fetched, but this scenario is different because it is against an easy schedule. I would say that 8-10 teams could go 30-13 against the soft schedule that lies ahead, maybe more

Mason Ginsberg
Mason Ginsberg

Don't sleep on Brooklyn. (No Sleep Til Brooklyn?) Here's where the above teams rank in Hollinger's power rankings (which takes into account strength of schedule & margin of victory, along with weighting recent games slightly more heavily in order to properly project the team's current strength): 1) Spurs 2) Thunder 3) Clippers (x2) 4) Heat 5) Nuggets 7) Grizzlies (x2) 8) Nets (x2) 10) Bulls 12) Warriors 14) Lakers (x2) I assumed both home and road losses for any team in the top 10, and only road losses for the Warriors and Lakers; considering home games against them a toss-up. I actually omitted a home game against Denver, which would bring that list of "likely losses" to 15. I feel as if that is a fairly realistic approach, but if you disagree, that is certainly your right. (Rankings - http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings)

houp garou
houp garou

0-2 against the brooklyn nets? you are trying hard to play the role of pessimist! and we have the lopez that can rebound!

Mason Ginsberg
Mason Ginsberg

I count 14 likely losses in the remaining schedule: @ San Antonio 1/23 @ Memphis 1/27 @ LA Lakers 1/29 (I'll give us a shot at home, but not in LA) @ Denver 2/1 (thin air never bodes well for us) vs. Chicago 2/19 vs. Brooklyn 2/26 @ Oklahoma City 2/27 @ Memphis 3/9 @ Brooklyn 3/12 vs. Clippers 3/27 vs. Miami 3/29 @ Golden State 4/3 @ LA Lakers 4/9 vs. LA Clippers 4/12 Could the Hornets win any one of those games if they play well enough? Sure, but that list doesn't even include a ton of toss-up games. We also have 8 more back-to-backs this season, and only 1 of those 8 is listed above (@ OKC 2/27). Again, I hate to step on all of the optimism - I miss playoff basketball in this city more than you could possibly know - but I'm just trying to be realistic here.

504ever
504ever

We have 43 games left and are 13 games below .500. We will need to finish above .500 to make the playoffs. That means we would have to go 29-14 (.675) OR BETTER to make the playoffs. Playing that well for that long seems unlikely for the currently configured Hornets team, especially given our current level of inexperience. Until a few days ago, we were worst in the Western Conference. Maybe we fans should focus on a more realistic goal for this team. I'd be very happy if we played above .500 ball from here out, the higher above .500 the better.

houp garou
houp garou

an optimist would say - we are 7.5 games behind the 7 seed and - we are 4.5 games behind the 9 seed not that far from the pack yes it's unlikely if you want to crunch depressing numbers but the point of being a fan is to cling to hope only to be crushed later on (right saints fans?)

504ever
504ever

A "game" in these stats is a win by us and a loss by them. That is great if you are trying to catch one team. But the standings have us 7.5 games behind Houston/Utah the 7th and 8th seeds, and 7 games behind the 9th seed Portland. So if we catch Houston or Utah, we still have to pass Portland. So in order to catch Portland, and either Houston or Utah, we can't count on them both losing. So have to win games, in this case 7 or 8 more than teams currently playing .513 or .525 ball. That means we have to win a total of 43-44 games. Since we have 13 wins now, we have to go 30-13. Talking about being 7.5 games back doesn't change this math.

Jason Calmes
Jason Calmes

This is the best way to look at it. Even if you have a 40% chance of passing each of 3 teams, assuming independence here, there is less than a 22% chance of catching all 3. This is clearly not exactly the situation here, but the message is clear: It's going to be tough. And this assumes that no other team between us and then can `leap'.

RonJohn
RonJohn

How about we focus on not collapsing in the 2nd and 3rd quarters? That's a much more immediate and doable goal, from which those wins will surely follow.

BRhornet
BRhornet

in the last 12 games since eric gordon's return (even though he didnt play in 2 of those games), the hornets are 8-4. And if the hornets are able to play their remaining schedule with the same win %, we would get to that mark of 29-14. The games with EJ we are 7-3 and if we continue on that %, we can finish 30-13. not out of the question. also if eric gordon returns to his career shooting %s (and stays healthy), then we may surpass these win totals. the teams in front of the hornets are not looking great right now and our conference seems to be very top heavy this year. I dont see how the playoffs are unrealistic.

504ever
504ever

BRHornet, We caught some teams at good times in that stretch of 12 games: Dallas in Dirk's first start this season, the very old Celtics on a back to back, Minny without Love, etc. Don't think we can count on that in the next 43 games. None of the above considers how unbelievably healthy we were in that stretch. Look, I would love it if we played .675 ball or better from here on out. I just think that is so unlikely we need to adjust our expectations to a more realistic level.

Michael McNamara
Michael McNamara

Which is why, as I contend, it is all about staying healthy. If we can get lucky for once and stay injury free, I actually am in the camp that the playoffs are 50/50 under that scenario. But if the injuries pile up again or happen to key players (especially GV and Gordon- whom have no legit backups), then it is nearly impossible

RonJohn
RonJohn

Has Greivis discovered a way to make his stamp on the game, or the coaches? (This isn't a hostile challenge, but an academic curiosity.) Sports science has grown by leaps and bounds in the last few decades? Why isn't there some training regimen to help him build his foot speed? How does Kevin McHale compare to Monty? IOW, if Kyle Lowry can't work with McHale, why could he work with Monty?