Ryan Anderson Stat-Pack

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Published: September 2, 2012

Michael and I are taking a week off of the podcast, so instead I bring to you the Ryan Anderson stat-pack I’ve been sitting on for months.  Consume and enjoy. Oh, and should we call Ryan Anderson “Neo”? I think that could work . . .

On multiple episodes of the podcast and a slew of different posts here on the site, I’ve emphasized just how bad midrange shots are when compared to shots at the rim and behind the three point line.  On average, a shot around the rim – without free throws taken into account – was worth 1.24 points per shot(pps) last year.  A shot from the three point line was worth 1.04 pps.  Midrange shots – and it actually doesn’t matter whether it was 5 feet or 20 feet – were worth 0.75 pps. Nothing more needs to be said there.

Of course, it’s easy to write about it, it’s another thing to be good enough of a basketball player to be able to earn these types of shots.  Defenses are designed to stop penetration – and good defenses run shooters off the three point line as well.  In fact, you’ll find most prolific shooters are forced to take anywhere from 40%-50% of their jumpers inside the three point line. It’s simply not easy to manufacture these kinds of shots.

Why do I bring this up?  Because creating these smart, efficient shots happens to be Ryan Anderson’s primary skill in the NBA. For once it’s easy for me, without using video, to show how smart a player is at basketball and how he helps his team.  With Ryan Anderson, it takes just three numbers:  3.8, 1.7, and 6.9. Those are Ryan Anderson’s per game shot attempts broken down by location.  3.8 shots at the rim, 1.7 shots from midrange, 6.9 shots from three point land.   That means that only 13.7% of Anderson’s total shots are taken from the dumb zone.  That’s a blazingly smart – and skilled – player.

Now the question becomes what sort of impact does that kind of shot creation have on a team?  Well, I’ll let the various advanced stats tell the tale.  Oh, and let me remind you – unless you are evaluating someone named Lebron, Durant, Paul or Howard, you can usually find at least one advanced stat that screams mediocrity.  Here’s Anderson:

  • Ryan Anderson’s PER was 21.25, ranking him 29th in the league. (15 is average)
  • NBA Win Shares (modified from Bill James baseball method) credits Ryan Anderson with 9.32 Wins – ranking him 23rd in the league.
  • Wages of Wins rates his efforts a .228 (.100 is an average NBA player) which was 27th best in the league  – but if we take into account the minutes he played, he earned his team an estimated 9.3 wins, which was 12th best in the league.
  • Anderson’s Adjusted +/- ranked him 27th overall, crediting him with helping Orlando outscore opponents by an average of +5.49 points per 100 possessions, regardless of whom was playing with him.
  • Anderson’s Simple Offensive Rating was +16.14, meaning that he improved his team’s offense by 16.14 points per 100 posessions when he entered the game.  That is by far the best in the league, topping two cats named Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.

In fact, the only place you can nitpick is on the defensive end of the floor, where Ryan Anderson is credited with holding opposing power forwards to below average PERs of 14.1 – and a couple other stats show that the team’s defense was largely unaffected(positively or negatively) by his presence on the court.

Personally, after watching last year’s offensive trainwreck, I’m keen for any player who helps this offense and holds his own defensively.  You?

To cap this post off, here are some stats courtesy of Hoopdata.  I always like to look at how a player performs compared to an average basketball player.  Here are Mr. Anderson’s stats.  Enjoy:

 

Player

USG

TS%

%Ast

Ast Ratio

TOR

%Blkd

And1%

FTA/FGA

PER

League Average PF

19.62

53.1

67.9

12.58

12.39

6.6

2.9

0.29

15.88

Ryan Anderson

21.23

58.9

73.5

6.07

6.41

4.9

2.1

0.23

21.25

Player

ORR

DRR

TRR

STL

BLK

CHG

DEF PLS

PF

League Average PF

8.6

19.1

13.8

0.71

0.77

0.21

1.70

2.3

Ryan Anderson

13.0

14.7

13.9

0.82

0.43

0.39

1.64

2.4

23 comments
Josh
Josh

RyNo was a great pickup. Why can't the season just start?

ADubs
ADubs

I'd be interested to see Durant's shooting zone numbers, he and Dirk take tons of shots in the stupid zone. Would you call Durant's shots dumb? Because he is the best scorer in the game right now. Great article, and I'm pumped to see a great product on the floor. While we have some need areas still, I think Gordon-Davis-Anderson (I really like "The N.O. Trio") will make for a much improved offense for the Hornets, and defenders will have nightmares deciding how to guard these guys.

diehard hornet from brazil
diehard hornet from brazil

So david west wasn't a prolific scorer, and mostly took dumb shots his whole carrer? He's a 17-footer assassin, and has shot .490 from the field for his career... I believe it depends on the player... For west, to take a 3-pointer would be a dumber shot than it would for durant, on the other hand for durant, to shoot it posting up his opponent would be a dumb shot, but not for west... Anderson has range, and perhaps was led to solidify his 3-pointer in order to open the paint for howard after being traded by NJ... Behind the 3-point line is where he is more comfortable, instead of taking a step into the arc and be a jason smith/david west guy, and as ryan said, he's efficient because he takes the most efficient shot FOR HIM. To generalize PPS without taking into account what is a more efficient shot to the player may be mistaken, as it seemed to be for me!

carpo
carpo

Yeah I think the Anderson signing is massively under-rated, I honestly think he will pan out better than D West (sorry Grayson). Also think Austin Rivers is over-rated by most Hornets boards as he is a chucker who is going to be forced to play back-up minutes at the 1/2. That is absolutely fine as a backup 2 but with few minutes+ Roger Mason it will be tough for him.

xman20002000
xman20002000

Anderson is a bigger and stronger Peja enabling him to develop into something he nor the Hornets know what will pan out in the pudding... Peja wasn't much in the front court despite his size.. 6'10... and could you see him defending a guy like Kevin Durant... So who defends KD.. Anderson or Davis assuming your best player is on him... Now comparing Anderson to DWest... two different players with a different game... But Austin Rivers is a project with a great pedigree.. He is like the Mannings with more basketball between the ears than the majority of commentators and sports reporters... Trust we aren't doing Doc Rivers a favor for the hell of it... The kid played for Duke and could have stayed but he is a lottery pick with a superior basketball background... He is 19 years old and so is Anthony Davis... With this team, although young, we don't have to rely on either... The Van Gundy's are coaches kids... So he knows the game and the question is can he transfer that knowledge into a professional career... The basketball people think he can... Some of you don't realize what we were able to retain after dumping veteran contracts most of whom weren't on the court during the end of the season... This allowed Coach and Demps to analyze and dump..

NOEngineer
NOEngineer

Yeah, and someone needs to get the ball to the 3-point shooter once he achieves his position (unless he drives there, which is not likely). That is why I'm glad we got rid of Jack. He had very poor court vision compared to a real point guard, especially Chris Paul. Cool statement of the obvious, right? I can't tell whether Vasquez will be much better. My big hope is that Gordon and Davis and Rivers will be excellent passers out of the lane, giving those open 3-point shooters their shot. Despite my apparent negative outlook, I am very excited to finally have a front-court player on the team with excellent Wins Produced numbers and an offensive mindset. Not quite CP3 quality, but far above what we have seen from Tyson and Emeka. If Davis can contribute with high efficiency on the floor with him, then we should be a playoff contender. Unfortunately, Gordon is just average in efficiency, and I don't expect anyone else on the team to be above average. One more high-efficiency player will still be needed to get over the hump...

xman20002000
xman20002000

Man you mention JJ and I agree he had to go.. Inside 2 minutes or taking that last shot was a killer... Jack would run in the paint and refuse to pass the ball blowing opportunities.. But with last year's perimeter shooters when EG was injured.. Belinelli and Ariza.. stomach ache.. And with Jack Vasquez couldn't develop and with EG healthy, we didn't need him plus he and Ariza were making mid-level money... Then we replaced Landry with Anderson from the budget standpoint, an upgrade.. plus he is 6'10 and a better shooter... I don't know how tough he is... On the passing side Davis is a former Guard so we don't know what he will become.. its scary.. But you are leaving out last years core who did pretty good without EG for a while and the lack of 4th quarter shooting... Vasquez is not a bad passer but he made poor decisions sometimes underestimating NBA level athleticism... But I am sure Coach expects more from Aminu, Vasquez, Smith and especially Xavier Henry... He should be above his injuries and in great shape... This should be fun to watch... if you love B Ball

504ever
504ever

You understand you take this paragraph and substitute Rivers for Jack, and you have just summaried Rivers entire college career? "Man you mention JJ and I agree he had to go.. Inside 2 minutes or taking that last shot was a killer… Jack would run in the paint and refuse to pass the ball blowing opportunities.."

Mac
Mac

Every single website is saying he is going to need new skills and he wont get open looks. Once Anthony Davis sets a pick for Eric Gordon or Austin Rivers and rolls, you have two deadly guys that you need to collapse too, and then there will Anderson, waiting for the pass in the corner. Also, Monty will include a pick and pop and other plays for him. But, he will need new skills, but I think he has a few tricks up his sleeve we dont know about.

JT's Hoops Blog
JT's Hoops Blog

Trust me, this Davis do not need skills because he is a virtual freak of nature. He started off as a 6' 3" point guard until and 8 inch surge turned him into a nearly 7 foot phenom. What he does not to do however, is get stronger, especially in his lower body--his legs and lower back. He will also have to work on his center of gravity as he will more than likely be spending most of career down low in the paint.

Jason Calmes
Jason Calmes

The Orlando writer I talked to on the radio said he most needs a post-game.

Michael McNamara
Michael McNamara

And I think he will develop one if Monty puts him on the floor as a three for a couple of minutes per game. Also, he should eat up the offensive glass when he is in at a three, seeing that he has done that playing the four and the five against much bigger guys. When Anderson, Davis, and Lopez are on the court together, we should get plenty of second chance opportunities

Phil
Phil

Longtime Magic fan here. This is a well-compiled piece but I have to bring up a few more things to paint what I believe is a fuller picture regarding Ryno's stats. Let's start with the shot-chart efficiency numbers. While he's a smart and efficient player for sure, there's really no way to tell how much of this vaunted shot selection was a result of Stan Van Gundy's system in Orlando. Heck, your explanation of which shots are most productive and thus desirable to take could have been straight from one of SVG's many press conferences and interviews in which he addressed that very issue. Also having Dwight Howard on the floor is naturally going to space the floor for your 4. I'm happy for your team's bright future and you got a good one in Mr. Anderson, but let's take these stats with a grain of salt for now.

JT's Hoops Blog
JT's Hoops Blog

Very good point. SVG's system was all about the three in Orlando thus distorting the actual talent and potential that Anderson can give the hornets.

xman20002000
xman20002000

You are right about the stats.... In school we read "Lying Through Statistics".. Different team.. different stats.. We have shooters on this team.. exactly what we needed and Anderson is one of them... It will be interesting to see this season's stats where he is one of (3) 24 year olds and of that group there are only 5 players older.. So Anderson can be the man if he can handle it... or at least a budding star.. The interesting part is how will they use him considering he can play the 3, 4, or 5... PLUS I don't think Aminu will take all this sitting down.. And once Miller gets his feet on the ground.. who knows...

StefanC
StefanC

I still can't believe how people barely seem to notice how great of a player we signed in Anderson. With Lopez, people are going crazy. It doesn't make any sense.

JT's Hoops Blog
JT's Hoops Blog

Only time will tell whether Anderson will be any good with the Hornets. In Orlando, he got mostly uncontested open looks thanks to Dwight Howard, In the Hornets, barring a miracle, he will not get the same luxury. However, he is only 24 years old and can develop his game further in time.

504ever
504ever

JT (and others), So you are saying on a team with only one offensive weapon, Dwight, the opposition never could put an adequate defender on Anderson and Anderson lucked into all of his points and productivity? Because Anderson was Orlando's 5th option after Dwight and who else??? Ryan writes an article with incredible depth and the best argument you have against it is "Dwight, duuuuhhh y'all"?

xman20002000
xman20002000

Anderson and Hornets fans will be fine... He walked into a PR burnout in NO.. With the Bountygate foolishness; Drew Brees' contract soap opera; EG's "I want to be a Sun, the Hornets paid me less than I am worth; plus winning the lottery and Tom Benson buying the Hornets... It's funny but Anderson was like an afterthought... It's really big city media that you don't get without professional sports... Then let's rename the Hornets Hurricanes after the Bourbon Street drink... LOL...

Jordan
Jordan

Robin Lopez is the better signing, why don't you write an article about how much more he will impact our team because clearly he's better than this... Just kidding. Awesome article. Not enough love to the vastly underrated Anderson. Can't wait to see the Anderson-Davis-Gordon triumvirate in action!

Nate
Nate

@ Jordan: Thank you for not saying "Big Three". Might I suggest "The N.O. TriO"?

JT's Hoops Blog
JT's Hoops Blog

I'll really be pulling for RoLo because he was not put in a place to succeed in Phoenix. He's a half court back to the basket player on a team that did not have the use for one. It was Phoenix was trying to put a square peg in a circular hole and it simply was not working. Hopefully Monty Williams will give Lopez a fair chance. His game resembles that of his twin brother Brook, but unlike his bro, Ro came at a must cheaper price.

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