Id give the kings 10 + Smitty/Ayon + Aminu + next years top 7 protected first for number 5 + Salmons + Tyreke. We take a terrible contract (salmons) for the potential to get Barnes/MKG + Tyreke in a contract year for Back ups.. I'd even chuck in J-Jack if they really wanted him. Cut's out a potential 8 mil for us in next years FA period but that's only if Dell can't get rid of him. And he'd be expiring going into next year as his final year (2014) is a team option that no team in their right mind would pick up.
Tenth Pick Tournament Finals: Damian Lillard vs. Trade Up
Sixteen have been widdled down to just two as Damian Lillard faces off against the option of Trading Up in the Tenth Pick Tournament
(by Mason Ginsberg)
Note: Just a reminder to make your decision about Lillard based on the assumption that he will be available when the Hornets select at pick #10, even if you think he might not be.
“Trade Up” is Lillard’s finals matchup? Seriously? I’ll get into my final Lillard case in a second, but I mean come on, we can use elementary school math to determine the champion already! I know all of you remember the transitive property, right? Well, let’s rewind to the first two rounds of the tourney:
In this quadrant of the bracket, Lillard breezed by Trade for Vet in the opening round and then smoked Kendall Marshall in the second round, winning by triple digit votes each time. Trade up couldn’t even get past Marshall in the first round! Now, this silly “trade up” notion, which is purely hypothetical and in no way a guarantee to work out, is somehow facing Lillard in the finals? Give me a break. Simply put: if Marshall > Trade up and Lillard > Marshall, how could Trade Up > Lillard possibly be accurate? Answer: it isn’t.
Just in case you’re not sold on that basic math, also note the inherent uncertainty surrounding the notion of “trading up.” Instead of choosing for the Hornets to select a player, you would be supporting an idea with no defined result. How can a hypothetical trade proposal that may not even come to pass win this tournament? Mike may suggest a certain trade, but the reality is that you wouldn’t be voting for whatever trade he proposes, only for the undefined idea of trading up in the draft. Are you really comfortable with voting in favor of a trade about which we currently know nothing? For instance, pretend you are voting for your favorite flavor of ice cream. One is a flavor that you enjoy, and the other is hidden. If you enjoy option A, why take a chance on choosing option B when, for all you know, option B could taste terrible? Well, that’s what you’d be doing if you vote for an unknown trade up over a fantastic prospect in Damian Lillard.
Now that the lunacy surrounding “trade up” has been accounted for, let’s recap all of the reasons that Lillard has shot up every NBA team’s draft board over the past few months, and also why he is the perfect third piece to go along with Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis.
- Lillard is easily the top PG in this year’s draft class and is projected to be a top-10 pick by every single major draft analysis website.
- He is a hard worker with a great work ethic and great stamina
- He is a great shooter with excellent range
- He has above-average wingspan for his 6’2″ height and has great lateral quickness, both instrumental assets on defense, where he has the tools to fit right into Coach Monty Williams’ defense-first game plan
- Despite opponents consistently devising game plans focused solely on stopping him, Lillard was still able not only to succeed, but to do so while producing some of the best and most efficient numbers in all of college basketball.
- Against the top NCAA tourney seed that Weber State played this past season – 7th seeded Saint Mary’s – Lillard scored an incredible 36 points on 18 shots, playing 36 of his team’s 40 minutes, and at one point scored 21 straight points for the Wildcats.
- Out of all all college players from 2009-10 through 2011-12, only three finished seasons with a PER over 33.5 and a true shooting percentage over 60% – Anthony Davis, Kenneth Faried (3rd place in 2011-12 NBA ROY voting), and Lillard.
- Out of all guards with usage rates of at least 30% and turnover rates under 12%, none had a higher player efficiency rating than Damian Lillard (34.0).
- With Lillard as Eric Gordon’s backcourt mate, the Hornets would have another perimeter scoring threat to divert defensive attention away from Gordon.
- In the pick and roll game, Lillard’s ability to smoothly pull up off the dribble from deep range makes it difficult for his defenders to go underneath the screen, while his burst off the dribble allows him to turn the corner quickly and get into the paint.
- Combine that last point with the fact that he’ll be running said pick and rolls with Anthony Davis, and you have a virtually unstoppable offensive play on your hands.
- Lillard shot 89% from the free throw line and 41% from the 3-point line, both excellent indicators of future shooting success.
There you have it, folks. When it comes to voting for a known vs. an unknown, the smart move is almost always going with the former; in this particular situation, that known happens to be a future stud point guard in Damian Lillard, which makes this decision potentially the easiest one you’ll have made throughout this entire tournament.
(By: Michael McNamara)
For me, this is a simple case of supply and demand. The fact is that this Hornets roster has been cleared out and is going to be built around a foundation of Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon, leaving three positions that need to be filled- a big, a small forward, and a guard who can compliment Gordon. It should be the Hornets goal to leave this draft with one of those three pieces. I have argued all along that the Hornets will not likely find themselves in this position again- with such a high draft pick in such a good draft class. So, it is imperative that the Hornets take advantage of this opportunity and get not only the best player available, but the most difficult piece to obtain. Harrison Barnes and/or MKG meet both of those criteria.
I don’t think I will get much argument from 90% of you that Lillard is the third best prospect of these three, and that if somehow all three were available at ten, you would want the Hornets to take one of the two guys not named Lillard. So, then what I must do is convince you that: a) It is possible to move up to get one of those two guys and b) the price of getting the better prospect is worth it in the grand scheme.
First, let me simplify the trade that I am proposing. I am targeting one team and one team only, Sacramento and their fifth pick. Some of the latest mocks have MKG available at number 5, while the majority of the others have Barnes. Either way, I want that pick and I will be willing to sacrifice in order to get it. The trade is as follows:
Al Farouq Aminu, Gustavo Ayon, and #10 for #5 and Francisco Garcia’s expiring contract (If it is MKG who is still on the board, I would even be willing to throw in a top 7 protected future first-rounder)
Sacramento has been working out prospects all week that are projected to go at the end of the lottery, and in this case they get one of those players plus a small forward that could potentially start for them and an intelligent big man to help balance out their roster. I know most readers don’t want to give up “all that”, but I live in a world in which in takes two teams to say yes to a trade. You gotta give to get.
Before I get to the poor argument that this is a ‘3-for-1’ trade, let me first address why I think it is so imperative that we pursue a small forward over a point guard in this draft. Below is the list of the top ten point guards set to hit the free agent market either this year or next:
1.) Chris Paul
2.) Deron Williams
3.) Steph Curry
4.) Brandon Jennings
5.) Jrue Holiday
6.) Ty Lawson
7.) Goran Dragic
8.) George Hill
9.) Darren Collison
10.) Jameer Nelson
Honorable Mention: Devin Harris, Jose Calderon, Steve Nash, Andre Miller, Chauncey Billups, Aaron Brooks, Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor
Now, let me show you the list of the top 10 available small forwards this summer and next:
1.) Nic Batum
2.) Jeff Green
3.) Dorrell Wright
4.) Grant Hill
5.) James Jones
6.) Kyle Korver
7.) Omri Casspi
8.) Donte Greene
9.) Jeremy Evans
10.) Andres Nocioni
Honorable Mention: Numbers 2-10 should have been the honorable mention. Yuck!
I am not exaggerating just to win this debate. These are seriously the best small forwards on the market this year and next. Remember what I said about supply and demand? The Hornets will be able to fill that point guard position one way or the other. In addition to all those free agents, you have another point guard demanding a trade (Kyle Lowry) over in Houston. What is the urgency with Lillard? Why is everybody clamouring to get an unproven small school kid that struggled against big conference schools, when the league is literally overflowing with point guards. Relax, we’ll get our point guard. A point guard is fruit cake on Christmas Eve, while a small forward is TIckle-Me-Elmo. You get the impossible to find first and pick up the overstocked later.
As for what we give up, yes on paper it is initially a 3-for-1 trade, but these trades are not made in a vaccuum, away from all other acquisitions. Demps will get two other players to take the spot of two guys with limited ceilings. He has shown that he could do that- he can take Craig Brackens and cash from the Knicks and turn that into J-Smitty and Gustavo. He will always be able to replenish our bench with quality finds who Monty develops.
What he can’t just whip up out of thin air is elite talent, so he has to take every opportunity like this one and fully maximixe it, because who knows if he will ever get this chance again. We all get attached to role players because we sit through 82 (or 66) miserable games and watch them put their best foot forward for our favorite team, but you have to be objective here and admit to yourself that they are just role players who are more than capable of being replaced. Other teams have these guys and you don’t value them because they are not on your favorite team. You would burst out loud laughing if you heard a Wizard fan say they “didn’t want to give up Trevor Booker” to get a star. Or if a Warriors fan didn’t want to give up Jeremy Tyler because of his potential.
Be objective. Come to terms with who Ayon and Aminu really are. Then look at that list of point guards and small forwards available again. Then, evaluate MKG or Barnes vs. Lillard. When you do that, you will come to the same conclusion I did- the Hornets have to do whatever it takes to trade up and grab one of these future studs at number five. Point guard can wait.
i voted for trade up as well....if we can get MKG or barnes i have no problem with that....i think dell should offer smiity,jack,10th pick and a future 1st rounder for the 5th pick and garcia or other throw ins.remember SAC is not sold on isiah thomas as their PG.....i love ayon's game....now to replace smitty?sign landry or bass...with the 5th pick draft MKG if he is still there....then at 46....i draft machado if he is still there or if taylor is still there...satoransky as well....like wat mason said there's a lot of PG available through FA or trade...then we try to buy OKC's pick...they are solding it
I have been keeping an eye on other TrueHoop Network sites to see who the other teams are interested in drafting? Guess What? Lillard is not in the Top-16 (!!) of a Cavs:The Blog writers Draft Board! Wow! I used the word gamble in another comment above for Lillard and Drummond. Do we really want to gamble just because we got Davis!? Think about it...
Did anyone else see the MIT Sloan Sports Conference presentation about the positions of basketball? http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=5431 It was an enlightening approach to viewing players and their actual roles in the game rather than trying to pigeon hole them into 5 categories. If you apply that to the Hornets, we're not set at PF and SG, we're set at scoring rebounder/paint protector/nba 1st team (in reality one of a kind similar to dwight howard), and scoring ball handler. We don't need a PG and a SF, we need a defensive ball handler and a 3PT rebounder. I'm sure I'll get laughs for this but I think we should go up and get Barnes, not MKG and trade for luke ridnour who is a PG on a team full of PGs and can be bought for pennies on the dollar. Ridnour is 8th best in the league in defending the jump shot at 39% and with Davis behind him it really doesn't matter how often people get by him. All we need is a PG who can defend the jump shot, Eric Gordon to continue to be the scoring threat he is, Anthony Davis to be everything he is meant to be on the defensive end with his rebounding and shot blocking, a wing who can shoot 3s, and a scoring center. A few role players, defensive specialist, backup offensive ball handler, and depth at center and we'll be a playoff team. So my vote would not be for Lilliard who might not play the same position as Eric Gordon on paper, but their styles - offensive ball handlers, would be redundant. Lets get Ridnour and Barnes!
It's really looking like Lillard might not even get past the Blazers at 6: http://www.csnnw.com/pages/landingdwight?Lillards-Trail-Blazer-workout-was-appare=1&blockID=730884&feedID=8351 For the purpose of this tourney, though, that's all the more reason to choose Lillard! If we're inherently assuming that he'll be there at 10, why would we trade the pick instead of taking Lillard?
What if the trade up is to get... ...Damian Lillard? But seriously, I say trade up if you can get MKG at 5. EG+MKG+}= a very attractive destination for a top PG.
If the Cavs really are putting Barnes before MKG, then I don't see how he does't fall to five. Beal is pretty much a lock at three unless someone trades up to the Bobcats spot to take him. But assuming no trades are made within the top 4 the draft order (as of right now) appears to be: 1) A. Davis 2) T. Robinson 3) B. Beal 4) H. Barnes
Here is the problem with this round. It does not labeled as "Trade up for MKG!" or "Trade up for Barnes!" or "Trade up for Drummond!" You don't know what you are going to be trade up for. So, you have to think about all trade up possibilities before you make a decision! Forget about the certainty. You are the GM. It's your turn to pick. Lillard is available and You have 2 options: Option 1: Draft Damian Lillard. That's it! Option 2: Draft Damian Lillard OR another player but work a trade with the other 9 teams that drafted players. There is only one assumption. Some of those 9 players are the ones not included in our tournament! Davis , MKG , Robinson , Beal , Barnes , Drummond , Waiters That's seven and yes trade up means we target one of those seven players! We got Davis. So, it's down to 6 to consider in a trade-up scenario! So, the question is: 1-Do I want anyone, ANYONE(!) of those players instead of Lillard? That's what trade-up means to me. Answer: YES, I definitely want MKG, Barnes or Robinson instead of Lillard. I am OK with Drummond instead of Lillard. Because I think Both are a gamble with similar chances. I am not sure if I want Waiters and Beal. As much as I like to have a 6th man like scoring punch from the bench. I am not sure if drafting a SG is the right choice for our Hornets, especially thinking that we sign Gordon. But, what if we don't resign Gordon? Actually, let me put it this way. Yes, I want to resign Gordon but What if he does not wanna play for us and demand a trade. Then trading up for Beal or Waiters might be a great move. Especially if Gordon will be involved in a sign&trade to give him max and if we could bring back assets in return (like Hill&Granger maybe?) So, If I knew Gordon is willing to sign and stay with my team. No sir! I don't wanna trade up for Waiters or Beal! I will get Lillard. So, nothing is certain. Having Lillard there is not certain, a trade-up scenario is not certain. Who we are going to be trading up is not certain. How can I vote for this one know? I have voted for Lillard so far and I would welcome Lillard if we draft him. But, I would also be interested in trade-up as well depending on the trade! Earlier I preferred trade-up against other players like Marshall, Zeller and PJIII. But against Lillard? I don't know. I now have to know who we are trading up for. So, I cannot vote blindly. I can only decide after I make phone calls and see if I can finalize the trade that I want! :)
If mkg is there at 5, give aminu, smith/Ayon (whichever they like more), 10, and even top 3 protected cause after the top 4 next year there is a huge drop off for 5 And Garcia/fredette. The latest espn mock drafT has us taking tyshawn Taylor at 46 which would be an absolute steal. He's got 1st round talent. That way we come out of the draft with a big man, small forward, and Point guard.
like I wrote in regard to last trade up article, trade up and give away assets for either barnes or drummond, no thanks and no thanks for mkg, you have to do it if you can get him. that being said, I do not like giving up gustavo, one of our bargain bin yet very capable bigs, I'm sorry if you think those are easy to come by. with an understanding of a need to get better and a summer to train, gustavo is going to be a force at 1.5 mil this year. even though I aknowledge he got pushed around at times last year, he should be able to play some 5 this year I'm all for trading #10 and top four protected #1 to kings for mkg if he drops. he doesnt fit with kings, they get a solid player at 10 plus a # 1 next year, I'm sure they're tempted. let's say rockets make deal mentioned above and get it first but still can't get dwight. they may like the same offer, #10 aminu + protected first for mkg and dalembert, take some salary from them, give them assets to use
To me trade up is what you do when you have few holes and number of assets. The Hornets are the opposite of that. We have two stars on the team, Gordon and Skynet. Gordon is an injury risk and Skynet is a 220 lb, 19 year old, one and done, rookie. The rest are all 2nd team players or worse. That's about as holey a team as you can get. Now we take this holey team and make a 3 for -1 and 1? We give up three assets, who all might start this year and who have upside and cheap contracts, for one guy and a $6M 31 year old SG with a PER of 10.75 who makes less than 40% from the field and less than 30% from 3pt land? Maybe I am being too nice calling Garcia a -1. Maybe he is a -2 or -3. That might be a trade I make in rebuilding year 3 to get a final starter, not in rebuilding year 1 (unless it gets me Skynet, which it won't).
Draft Express tweeted that the Rockets offered the Kings Kyle Lowry, #14, and #16 for Tyreke Evans and #5. Houston is seriously after that #5 pick. Dell will have to offer something Sacramento can't refuse. Or, we can try to trade for the 6th pick with the hope that Drummond is taken #5 either by Houston or Orlando if the Dwight Howard trade happens.
Question: Coming out of college, was Antonio Daniels as highly thought of as Damien Lillard, being that he was from a small school, a point guard, and a top ten pick (top 5)?
If the Hornets make trade with the Bulls Noah #29 pick and give the Bulls Jack and the 10th pick.Use the 29th pick and draft Evan Fornier,buy another pick in the 2nd rd to draft Robert Scarce and draft and stash with 46th pick Nihad Djedovic.
I say we go all UK. AD at #1, trade up for MKG or pick Terrence Jones at #10, and pick Darius Miller or Marquis Teague at #46 (may have to trade up with either Jack or Vasquez, which is perfectly OK for these guys).
Hasn't it become increasingly evident that Lillard will be off the board by pick 10???? (obviously not a certainty) I think enough has changed since this 'Tournament' started to warrant this discussion meaningless...
Had to go with trade up. If we can get MKG, I think that's 2 positions this draft would leave set for the team. And with him on board, moving Aminu hurts less and the cost is mostly losing Ayon.
I voted trade up when it was Marshall vs trade up so Mason's argument doesn't hold ground for me. I do agree with what Michael is saying especially after Barnes' and Robinson's combine numbers. I was iffy with him at first (its why I had hesitations voting for trade up) but when I saw how good he was in the midrange, and how long their wingspans are and basically how good their combine numbers were, I was sold on trade up. Moreso for Barnes, because people forget that Barnes produced solidly before twisting his right ankle with UNLV, twisting his left ankle vs Wake Forest which he re-injured against Maryland. Fact is, if trading up is possible (which it is if Kings workouts seem to indicate), then if we peg Beal at 3 (since he fits well with their projected starting 5), then at 5 we can have one of Barnes/MKG/TRob. TRob's going to be the worst case, but that would be such a good worst case. Bobcats will most likely pick TRob and then its between MKG/Barnes for that 5th pick. If so, then trading up with the Kings for Jason Smith (I like Ayon more sorry)+10+Aminu+a protected future 1st round pick to nab one of Barnes or MKG gives us a very very solid and workable 3 man core of Gordon(23),Barnes(20),Davis(19) - with 2 of them in rookie contracts for the next 4 years. Jack | Vasquez Gordon | Henry MKG (or Barnes) | Garcia Davis | Landry Ayon | (FA) that's a solid team for the future with lots of flexibility for the 2013 FA class and have enough pieces off the bench.
Great arguments on both sides, it was a tough decision. Hoping we get MKG like mad. Also there is a chance MKG or Barnes fall to seven if Rockets trade up to draft Drummond with Sacremento pick.
Well thought out post, and yes that paper and presentation was great. I suggest fans who like to look deep into the building of a team check it out
Heavy rumors that Rivers could be taken by Blazers as of late. With that logic- let's bring Doc's boy back into this tourney!!!
We could trade down from number one and try to pick lillard twice. Could you imagine having lillard cutting to the lane and dishing it back out to lillard for the three?? that would be freaking awesome!
If We are voting for "Trade Aminu,Ayon,#10 for MKG" Then, OK , I will vote for trade up! But, then the matchup should be named as: Lillard vs. "Trade up for MKG!" :)
Monty might not like Marshall based on last weekend's workout. I understand he put these guards through some tough paces and Tony Wroten pushed Fournier around. That being said, if he does pick Marshall, expect him to be sidelined part of the year. He already has injury concerns and it appears that with Monty's style of "no blood no foul" when it comes to guard play, he becomes a reach at #10.
You have a point, but collecting "assets" and second team guys is way easier than collecting Allstar caliber players. I would take a borderline all-star over 2nd teamers and "assets." Assets are acquired through much easier means such as scouting overseas (Ayon), free agency (Landry), and cheap trades (Xavier). When you have a chance to flip many decent players for a very good one you do it, because a few very good players wins more than many decent players.
But is Houston after that #5 pick for themselves or as trade bait with Orlando? And if so, wouldn't Drummond be the obvious choice there?
But they definitely are after the pick. I can't imagine Orlando would pass on MKG if they traded for the pick though, he's exactly what they need. Good character, hard working, passionate, and the fans would love him
FYI Bucher debunked this on Twitter https://twitter.com/RicBucher/status/217657307184640000
A Davis #1 Trade to move up for MKG Next yrs first to move into late rd 1 for teague. Then get doron lamb at 46 Three future starters and a sharp shooter off the bench
Actually we just did a TrueHoop mock draft with all the other writers who know their teams inside and out and Lillard was still there at ten. If Portland takes Drummond at 6, I say it is 80/20 that Lillard will still be there. Sounds like Toronto would prefer Lamb or Waiters. And this is just meant to be a fun and different way of exploring all the different options/talking about the prospects. We didn't want to do the cut and dry profile that everyone else does. So, just assume these are the two options you have and have fun with it.
I think that if the Rockets manage to trade up, it will be purely to build a trade package worthy of getting Dwight Howard. That being said, Orlando could just as easily take Drummond with that pick as well; their only solidified starter is probably Ryan Anderson at PF (if they retain him through restricted free agency).
MKG - he has horrible mechanics with his shot and although defence is his specialty, what else does he provide us on court? Harrison Barnes can provide us with a lot more. He doesnt have the 'reputation' MKG has but he can shoot the ball, he wouldnt be asked to be our #1 guy (more like #3), he can play reasonable defence (Monty would probably make him a much better defender than he already is) and he would help us from the bottom rung of the ladder regarding team points per game...
read that :) its wonderful to read and I think it may miss some elements but overall its a good bird's eye view of how to build a team
If it dies, it dies. It's a legit thought. I am not saying we go to 5 for Lillard, but maybe we have to go to 7 or 8. Whatever Demps decides, we have won the draft thanks to the Brow™.
I am starting to believe MKG won't be there at 5. If true, where does that leave us? (Somewhere close to delusional?)
No doubt the above average starter is out there for us to chose at 10, but this draft is built in tiers, and no one will be in the same tier as Gilchrist at 10.
Disagree strongly. This is a very deep draft. I'm not saying we'll find a superstar or allstar at 10 but we very well could find an above average starter or 6th man type of player.
I think Kidd-Gilchrist will be the second best player in the draft. Defensively he's better than Ariza, athletically he's better than Ariza, intangibly he's better than Ariza, and offensively he's not very far away. It appears that Gilchrist will fall to 5 because apparently the Cavs are enamored with Barnes. Im not saying Gilchrist is going to be an all-star, but he could easily prove to be a Luol Deng level player, and I don't think you're going to find that good of a player at 10.
The only All-Star in the draft that I see is Skynet. We could easily get a player at 10 (Sullinger, Marshall, maybe even Zeller) who ends up a better NBA player than who we could trade up for. Look at Ryan's draft analysis. the odds only improve somewhat when you move from 10 to 5 in the draft. It's still a crap shoot. I'd never trade up for Barnes. And, as much as I like things about MKG, he still is an athlete without a sophisticated offensive game. He may end up being Trevor Ariza 2.0.
now that the truehoop mock is up - u can see the Portland guys went with Drummond, and then a PG. So you easily see that with a need at both positions, they could swing back to Lillard at 6 with so much question around Drummond. Not saying the tournament is worthless, always fun to talk about - but I'm gonna keep believing that Lillard is off the board at 10. I think the draftexpress guys draft is interesting to look at - they have lillard AND rivers gone in the top 10.. Hornets drafting Jeremy Lamb... that is a head scrather...
right on. thanks for the extra insight there... everything I had read over the last couple weeks had him pegged either at 6 to Portland, or 8 to Toronto. Seemed like he was definitely starting to fit in that category of "stock rising," particularly after the combine when people start to throw out player comparisons based on measurables (Derrick Rose!??). If the 10th pick arrives, and still owned by the Hornets - do you see us letting him fall from there? I'm sure the Blazers would love to nab him at 11 if they go big at 6...