Tenth Pick Tournament Round One: Trading Up vs. Kendall Marshall

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Published: June 8, 2012

Round One of the Hornets247 Tenth Pick Tournament continues with Michael McNamara backing Kendall Marshall and Jake Madison saying the Hornets should Trade Up.

Kendall Marshall

(By: Michael McNamara)

So, let’s just talk about who it is that Marshall is paired up against before we break down why he is the better choice. The Hornets won’t have the ability to get to 2 or 3, otherwise I would be all for the decision to trade up. In fact, that was my dream scenario in last week’s podcast. But again…it was a dream- won’t happen. They can get up to 6 or 7, though, if they were desperate enough to grab Harrison Barnes or even Andre Drummond, should he fall that low. So that’s what we’re talking about here- Kendall Marshall vs. trading future commodities and/or taking on bad contracts to grab Barnes or Drummond.

Give me Marshall.

As I have stated in the past, I want to use the draft to grab guys that have unique skill sets that I am unlikely to find in free agency or the trade market. When you look at Kendall Marshall, he is the rarest of the rare. Since Draft Express launched in 2001, Kendall Marshall’s 10.7 assists per 40 minutes adjusted is the HIGHEST in the history of their data base, and he is also #1 All-Time in Pure Point Ratio. That is the definition of elite. Oh, and his assist to turnover ratio is a putrid 3rd highest of all players since 2001. What a disappointment!

Now comes the part where people say, “Yeah, but he can’t score.” Really, because I saw him score when he wanted to. What I didn’t see is Harrison Barnes score when Marshall went down with an injury. We had UNC blogger Brian Barbour come on a few weeks back and tell the story of UNC’s February match-up with rival NC State. Apparently, some of the coaches from NC State called Marshall “one-dimensional” (like many uneducated critics do). Marshall responded with 22 points on just 8 shots, including 4-5 from three. Oh, and he had 13 assists and ZERO turnovers to go with it. After the game he replied, “One-dimensional, huh?”

Saying Kendall Marshall can’t score is as ignorant as saying CP3 can’t score in the first half of NBA games. Of course he can, he just chooses to get other guys involved instead because it is what is best for the team. In fact, Marshall scored in double digits in his last six games (finale against Duke and ACC tourney/NCAA tourney games) when his team needed him to. In those six big games at the end of the year, Marshall averaged 15 PPG, shot 58% (50% from three) and still averaged over 10 APG.

So, the can’t score thing is just lazy and untrue. But the “below average defense” thing is justifiable and certainly has its merits. He does lack elite lateral quickness, and he will undoubtedly get beat by some of the elite point guards in this league. But, he might not have to guard them. Remember, in the limited time we saw Eric Gordon last year, he often covered the team’s quickest guard and because Marshall is 6’4″, he can easily cover the shooting guard if that is a better matchup.

What you have here is a basketball player and a leader. What you don’t have is a YouTube friendly prospect who will get the fan base pumped up. You want highlights and “potential”, trade up and take your chances with guys who have shown no ability to be leaders or rise to the occasion when their team needed them. That’s what wins in the playoffs, isn’t it?

No, what wins in the playoffs is team work, unselfishness, and leadership- and this guy has all of those things in spades. In fact, when you talk to anybody who followed UNC basketball, they often say that Marshall was the most vocal and respected leader they can remember ever at UNC. That kind of stuff is contagious, and Anthony Davis possesses the same leadership and work ethic on the defensive end. Put those two on the same squad and everybody will fall in line for the next ten years. Kevin Love often talked about how Rubio’s play made everybody else less selfish/more willing to make the extra pass, and Marshall is the same way. Not to mention the fact that he will get Davis an extra 2-3 buckets a game while he is maturing on the offensive end.

If you want toughness, leadership, production, and an elite skill set that is reminiscent in some ways of a young John Stockton at best and a young Andre Miller at worst, then you draft Kendall Marshall and watch every player on your team grow to love him, and have their games blossom because of him. The choice is yours.

Trade Up

(By Jake Madison)

Michael is right, trading up to the 2nd or 3rd pick is unrealistic. Same with the 4th where the Cavaliers have no plans on trading down. But you know what? That’s okay with me.

Go around from site to site and take a look at all the mock drafts. Anthony Davis is the consensus first pick but after him picks 2 through 10 could go any number of ways. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seems to be the second best prospect but is slated to go anywhere from 2 to 6. Even Michael has him going 4th in his mock draft. All it would take would be Thomas Robinson or Harrison Barnes (who the Cavs are targeting) going in the top 4 for the Hornets to have a chance at MKG. Bradly Beal and Andre Drummond would potentially be in play as well.

I say trade the 10th pick, next year’s first rounder and, say, Gustavo Ayon to the Kings for the 5th pick. No one other than Barnes in that 2nd tier group of prospects seems like a good fit for the Kings. While they might drool at the idea of pairing Drummond with DeMarcus Cousins, they would probably be better suited taking a similar but less talented and safer pick like John Henson later on. On the flip side, the Hornets could strike gold if Kidd-Gilchrist, Deal or Dummond fall to the 5th pick.

It may not be likely, but it is certainly within a realistic realm of possibility. With Davis seen as a sure thing, Dell Demps can afford to take a risk. At worst, the team ends up with a much better prospect than Marshall.

It’s not that I don’t like Marshall. I’d just like him at the 17th pick instead of the 10th. I think he’ll be an okay point guard and a borderline starter in the NBA. Marshall reminds me of Greivis Vasquez on both offense and defense; he might be better than some starters, but he’s not top 20 quality.

Who knows who will be available at the 10 sport. There is no guarantee that Damian Lillard or any of the other prospects will be. If that’s who your favorite pick is then the Hornets have no choice but to trade up to get them. With the Raptors looking for a small forward, offer them Ariza and the 10th pick for the 8th. The Raptors fill a need, and, since they have almost no bad contracts, they can afford to take on Ariza’s salary–at the worst they can also send Linas Kleiza the Hornets’ direction. Trading up assures the Hornets of getting the player they want.

Lastly, leadership and unselfishness are not what wins playoff games. Talent and star players do.  Look at Chris Paul with the Hornets as an example. He was at the top of those two qualities and all he did was win one playoff series. There simply wasn’t enough talent around him to get over the hump. Boston, Miami, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City all have multiple stars. Marshall might be a good player but he won’t ever be on the level of Westbrook, Rondo, Harden, etc.

Let’s not let Davis suffer the same fate as Paul. The Hornets might not have another chance to trade into the top 5. Next year’s pick will most likely be around 15 and it will be much more expensive to trade up from there. The majority of stars are taken in the top 5. Let’s make a move and get two in this draft.

50 comments
Jack
Jack

Raptors are looking to trade for proven SF, how about Ariza, Vasquez(Raptors in need in PG) and future 2nd rounder for 8th pick and 2nd rounder. What about that??

Jack
Jack

3 top ten picks, I think yes. Lilliard Gordon Terrence Jones(great to pair up two former teammates, and Jones has unbelievable upside) Davis Kaman Amnesty Okafor, resign Gordon, Bellineli, Kaman, and Landry. Tom of cap space to make a BIG splash in free agency.

Josh
Josh

I'd probably take Marshall. The only scenario that I would trade up in is if we trade #10 and Ariza for #8. Toronto wants a small forward, and would only move down two spots. If we drafted Marshall, I'd move Jack to the backup 2-guard and Vasquez as the starting point guard. Then let Marshall develop and see how good he is.

Lucas Ottoni
Lucas Ottoni

The Hornets should fly on Deron Williams in free agency. Hiring entirely possible. What do you think?

SP
SP

I fell in love with Marshall at UNC. I even changed the way I played after watching him distribute so efficiently and subsequently help his team win. Between Gordon and Davis, most of his weaknesses are nullified and he makes a lot of sense for us. I'm just torn between him and Sullinger!

kempleton
kempleton

Now how about this: http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=10833 Do you think Cavs might be interested in pick-10 + Ariza for their pick-4? They can still get Henson-Zeller-Lilliard-Waiters-Rivers-Moultrie-PJ3 or another decent player at #10 and we can get Barnes or MKG at #4!!! Now, that would be great! Even a bigger but more unlikely trade could be #10+Okafor+Ariza vs. #4 + Jamison. We can then hit next year's free agency with Jamison's 15mil contract off the books! What do you think of those trades? Possible? Worth it?

Harry
Harry

Am I the only person who thinks Kendall Marshall is the MOST YouTube friendly player in the draft? If I've got five minutes to spare I regularly put on a Marshall vid (if not a Marshall vid then a Scola or Z-Bo one).

Vigga Ray Valentine
Vigga Ray Valentine

Dont sleep on Hornets selecting Royce White or even Arnett Moultrie them cats can ball

Box 10,000,000
Box 10,000,000

Not a big college basketball follower until the tourney starts so I obviously didnt get to see much of Kendall Marshall, but the comparisons to me sound like he is a second coming of Jason Kidd. No one ever accused him of being overly athletic or quick. He also didnt have a 3 pt shot until the past few years of his career. An elite passer is a heck of commodity in the league and the only reason I can see us not taking him if available at 10 is if PJ3 is available. Elite PGs make average players good, good players great, and great players even greater.

Hollis21
Hollis21

The court vision Kendall Marshall has is just unprecedented. Michael, you made the big argument that I would have in the comments. For Marshall, it's not that he can't score, it's that he looks for others first. There were plenty of games where we were frustrated that Chris Paul was so passive and wasn't looking to score. However, he was above and beyond others on the roster. Marshall running around and getting the open man is great because we know AD and Gordon (if resigned) would obviously rank above him. Marshall would not be expected to be the top guy, so his passive attitude would be much more welcomed for the fanbase. And in the same situation in trading for a vet, I just don't see the value in a realistic trade. If the Kings are at #5. And as mentioned, MKG is there. Why would the Kings not just want MKG? I'd love the trade because I think he'll be great. But, won't the Kings think the same thing? If so, #10 pick, bench guy, and a pick that would pry be in the 10-18 range for an elite consensus top 4 guy. I don't think the Kings would do it. I think a tradeup would be to get Barnes or Drummond. And while, I'd be okay with getting either at 10, I don't want to give up future assets to draft them earlier. Taking Marshall here.

J
J

You guys should checkout the video of Mirza Teletovic he could be a 2nd rd steal.If we had a second rd pick or pending on a trade to get more picks i would get this guy he's a poorman Peja IMO.

Mike P
Mike P

I think the comparison of Vasquez and Marshall is overused. Marshall is a far superior passer. My question about Marshall is whether he is quick enough to become a difference maker in the NBA. Then again, Rubio isn't the quickest cat around.

korey
korey

Take Davis 1 & lock up EG - MUST DO! Wonder what it would take to PRY Rondo from Celts? 10th pick + _____? Rondo, EG, and Davis would be a young/nasty group of building blocks! Wonder what it would take to move up and get BEAL (STUD ALERT!)? Beal, Davis, & EG would be NASTY! 3 STUDS under 24. It sure would be fun watching that young trio grow together Either WAY: Hornets in WIN WIN situation. Lillard/Rivers/Marshall one will be available at 10. IF the hornets decide to play russian roulette there is some mega talent that will slip due to work ethic. Perry Jones III & Drummond (I think he will go way before Jones based on being a bit more "safer" than Jones). Jones situation is easy he's either going to be a 20/10 guy OR AN OUT OF THE LEAGUE MISS. With Davis the Hornets could potentially roll the dice on Jones and hope Monty's great player relationship quality can turn the kid around. Which ever way the hornets go in such a deep draft its pretty evident the second pick will be HOUSE MONEY! We all ready struck gold with Davis! I do think the Hornets have a couple tricks up their sleeves! Signing FAs/Trades/etc. They have cap space and A LOT OF OPTIONS TO DO THIS RIGHT!

nola hustle
nola hustle

agree with every sentiment never doubted that we will lock up ej beal (i prefer mkg) would be nice but at what cost? probly impossible or cost way too high mostly i agree with win win on lillard rivers marshall

TrinchMan
TrinchMan

I think the idea of drafting Kendall Marshall is kind of pointless because he's pretty much the exact same player as Greivis Vasquez. Id rather see Greivis develop, with more minutes, coaching and experience. He seems like a pretty good defender, good leader and has a natural ability to see the floor and run an offense...plus he's 6'6 which allows him to play with J.Jack. Soo trade up if the Hornets feel there is a cant miss talent who has fallen a little bit or stay and draft a scoring point guard like Lillard or a combo guard like Austin Rivers. These are two guys with major upside and both aren't a big risk to take at the number 10 spot. ----On a side note the Hornets should change their name to the KREWE, how bada$$ would that be.

nola hustle
nola hustle

not the same at all, greivis good passer, marshall great passer greivis will make a great backup for marshall, jjack can back up the 2 since he doesnt pass to anyone (btw marshalls 3pt and fg% numbers significantly better than greivis in college) as for name how about the hustlers?

NOLA Hustle
NOLA Hustle

I have a strong feeling lillard will be gone by the time we pick

TrinchMan
TrinchMan

I get that Marshall is good and id be happy if we got him, id just rather Lillard

NOLA Hustle
NOLA Hustle

you can find the proof you want in the draft express stats quoted above citing marshall's hostoric assist rates much better is the eye test. i watched all the hornets games and all the unc games. greivis makes some nice passes during the course of a game. marshall takes everyone around him to a completely higher level, like flipping a switch. im going to keep saying this but he does what the hornets will need so bad this year - he turns defense into instant offense. whether advancing himself or with the perfect outlet pass, the ballnmoves downcourt immediately after turnovers annd blocks, somethings we'll be seeing plenty of this year and beyond. what we need to do to win is be efficient about turning those chances into buckets. for that, no man has entered the draft in recent years more perfect for the job then marshall

TrinchMan
TrinchMan

Plus your splitting hairs with these 3 guys.. lillard, marshall and Rivers. Thats why im saying you can knock off marshall because he resembles another player on our roster and go with one of the other two.

TrinchMan
TrinchMan

So you say they arent the same at all, but u didnt say much to back that up besides that you think marshall is a better passer. And i dont care about comparisons to Grevis' college numbers, more focused on the player he is now and the amount of improvement he showed this year.

504ever
504ever

I feel like people forgot the lottery is what determines draft order in the NBA, and an illogical game of chance others play because they feel they will beat the odds and get lucky. Instead people are acting like the draft is the lottery and all of the GMs of teams picking 2-4 will pass on concensus top 4 picks like MKG or Robinson and let them drop to 5 or below. Then the teams picking at 5 or below won't be overjoyed to get so great talent that they will trade their pick! Common Man! The draft isn't a lottery and none of that will happen. But the illogic isn't done there. Then we don't have to give up a key piece to get the 5th, or so, pick. Who in their right mind would take the 10 pick and back-up Ayon for the 5th, or so, pick? No one! And the more cheap back-up players you add on the Hornets' side of the trade, the more you weaken the Hornets and defeat the entire purpose of the trade. I like Marshall a lot, but I would vote for anyone in the 10th pick tournament over trade up. ANYONE! We need to accumulate pieces, not trade them away for a player who won't be available to us at 5 or below.

berlin-hornets
berlin-hornets

I also clicked trading up. Of what I have heard from the combine, Marshall is just too bad a shooter. Even people at the draft combine were disappointed. Being able to score in a couple of games doesnt mean you are actually able to do this on a consistent basis. But I have to agree with a couple of comments here, I wouldnt trade up just for the 9th, 8th or 7th pick. You'd would have to give up too much. Everything else, I am game.

NOLA_Fredo
NOLA_Fredo

I'd love to trade up but given what was reported yesterday (how teams are looking for the Hornets to give up the #10 pick just to get rid of Okafor's or Ariza's contract) I don't see how or why a team agrees to give up a Top 5 pick away. And as for trading the 10th this year AND next year's first, given we gotta expect the Hornets to be back in the lotto next year, that would be two Lotto players we'd be giving up for one. As was stated in the podcast, we'd be hoping that the one player we get is the equal of two players. None of that takes into account Marshall's vision and creative ability. While I'm afraid of his defensive frailties, I think good coaching and teamwork can hide some of those flaws. Since ideally we'd be running our offense through Davis and Gordon, I'd take Marshall and ask him to create for them.

Jay
Jay

Trading up would be nice if you could land MKG, but I just don't see that happening. That's why these "trade up" or "trade down" choices are kind of weird. There are so many variables. I don't think many teams want to see the Hornets getting away with Davis AND MKG in this draft. I think if the team does trade up it will be more modest than shooting into the top 5. Michael, one of the biggest concerns even from those who like Marshall is how he works next to Gordon, with both seeming to need the ball to be effective. How do you see those two fitting together?

nola hustle
nola hustle

watch any unc clip from marshall era. he never holds the ball that long. they don't run that kind of system and he's not that kind of guard. he's not an over dribbler by any means, either swing it or drive and dish

1Weirdguy
1Weirdguy

uhmmm...i say pick Marshall...we need people to keep the defense honest and not pack the lanes when Gordon penetrates..if marshall can be that efficient in the pros behind the 3, then that is something we havent had EVER ...we never draft these guys and always sign some FA who shows flashes (~cough Bellineli)...but we need to draft someone and groom them...and its a plus that he can also find the open man...

kempleton
kempleton

Trading up is "of course" a great idea and I voted for that. But, at what cost? If we can trade up to top-6, I am up for it. If not, a crappy contract in return is not a good investment for the future especially as we are thinking to test free agency this summer and next summer. Kings desperately need a SF. Tyreke Evans plays as their SF. Do you really think they will let MKG go at the 5th spot? No way! Blazers need a Center. If Drummond falls to #6. Do you think they will let him go? I am not sure. Most mock drafts list Robinson-MKG-Beal-Barnes going 2-5 and Bobcats-Wizards-Cavs-Kings all may easily select those 4 at any order. All those players are pretty good, if we can trade up to get any one of those (hmmm, maybe except Beal if we resign Gordon), that sounds great to me.

nola hustle
nola hustle

I use a Kidd comparison for Marshall often. I watched all the UNC games during his career and its hard to overestimate his transformative effect on that team in both seasons. All those other lottery picks couldn’t beat UNC Asheville when larry dre was the pg. Plug in Marshall and his ability to find guys in their sweet spots, push the ball even when breaks didn’t seem possible and the team is an offensive juggernaut. Well we happen to need those attributes. We are about to draft a of who can run like a gazelle, has soft hands and an ability to catch and dunk everything that comes his way. We also have Gordon ariza aminu etc who finish the break and a team.that must be successful by initiating offense with defense. Picture ad blocking a shot to himself quick outlet to Marshall, blink of an eye downcourt to Gordon or ariza for easy deuce. We need those buckets to win and Marshall is the perfect complement to ad to make it happen. His court vision is not above average, it’s once.every ten years type of exceptional. He will be a great pro and perfect sidekick. Besides being a perfect complement to ad, he fits very well beside ej in the backcourt. many point guards need to have the ball in their hands for much of the shot clock and do a lot of dribbling to facilitate, not marshall. he makes good, snap decisions and moves the ball quickly. When we get to halfcourt set, Gordon will be running pick and roll, other times Marshall can facilitate ball movement Monty craves. His offense has taken a leap already in two years of college ball (note his fg% and 3pt % compared to beal, barnes, j lamb, waiters, rivers). He will we able to hit the spot up jumper if necessary when the ball is kicked out. Of course ej's quickness at the 2 will allow him to help marshall on the d end as he can guard pgs if necessary. marshall has excellent height which will allow him to swap off to a 2. Marshalls offense, already much improved will continue to grow but you can’t teach bball iq.and vision to these other guys. ask minnesota fans how rubio worked out. marshall and he share that unique vision. his ability to create offense for himself and defensive quickness were questioned too but the result was a lot of fun and a lot of wins.

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

good to read all those things. If Marshall can guard the bigger, slower guards then Gordon can guard those quicker guards.

Ben
Ben

just for fun sake: the Rockets could take Jack, Ariza and 10 for Calderon and 8... but someone would have had to fall very far, and Monty & Dell would have to be willing to give up 2 system familiar guys for old man Calderon.... maybe T-Rob is in a free fall? 1. AD, 2. MKG, 3. Beal, 4. Barnes, 5. John Henson, 6. Drummond, 7. Terrance Jones After all that smack talk T-Rob is throwing around, could AD and TRob coexist? :)

Bob
Bob

The problem that I have with Jacob's logic is that if a great prospect is available at the 5th spot, why wouldn't the Kings take it? If there are such awful prospects at 10, it makes no sense to give up an unproven commodity like Ayon or JSmooth for a chance at a great prospect like MKG. It's as if he thinks the Kings are run by internet bloggers. Also, this quote is awful: "It’s not that I don’t like Marshall. I’d just like him at the 17th pick instead of the 10th. I think he’ll be an okay point guard and a borderline starter in the NBA" How many years have you been a talent scout? Prove that observation, don't just say what you think.

TrinchMan
TrinchMan

congrats! you have the most dislikes for this topic. GOOD JOB

Jason Calmes
Jason Calmes

As someone else participating in these things, let me say that the `prove this' kind of demand by you is understandable as one who thirsts for knowledge, but we have parameters that we are working in for this tourny. Some analysis and conclusions on our parts are justified, provided there is data there. Some is presented, and some is part of the ongoing dialogues here. I get where you are coming from, but try to understand the other side, and realize that more Marshall info will be coming out should he advance.

NOH Domination
NOH Domination

Talent scouts don't usually have blogs... Looks like you'll have to settle for the opinion of the writers who do.

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

Maybe because their team needs basketball players more than prospects? They already have Cousins, Evans and Thornton to worry about (all 3 are headcases as it is) not to mention Whiteside and Thomas. But I do get where you're coming from :)

George
George

Should try and see if we can rob Sacremento of their 5th pick, like Portland robbed the Nets of their pick.

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

BTW, Mcnamara gets to write about Rivers AND Marshall? I think your lotto was rigged!! *insert conspiracy theory here LOL*

Jason Calmes
Jason Calmes

It's not like same person has White and Leonard because they are trying to sabotage the best Tenth Pick Tournament Agent in the biz.

mojart
mojart

trade the 10th pick and a future pick for the 5th pick...i think charlotte are entertaining trades for the 2nd pick...how abt ariza,10th pick and our 1st rd pick next year for the 2nd pick and fillers

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

I voted trade up because of Madison's idea that it's quite possible that MKG MIGHT fall to 5. If Sacramento agrees to that trade 10, next years pick + Jason Smith (I like Ayon more) for 5 and maybe Outlaw (since Outlaw is basically a dead weight contract to them, I THINK) AND MKG is available, then I'm all for it. Otherwise? Pass. But the idea of MKG is just too drooling to pass on O_O

da ThRONe
da ThRONe

Don't want to trade any future picks. However I like the idea of trading up and/or acquiring more picks in this draft.