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Looking to the Future: Minimizing Risk
Chicks dig the long ball, but most GM’s just want to get on base.
For those of you who got to hear Dell Demps on Jim Rome this week, you might have noticed that Demps seemed fairly conservative with his thoughts on the draft process. He talked about minimizing risk and evaluating whether a player’s talent is bigger than his problems. Personally, I agree with these philosophies for the most part- happy with the double in most cases, as opposed to going for the home run, but risking the strikeout. Fans like to talk about gambling on the ‘Boom or Bust’ guy, but their livelihoods aren’t at stake. It is fun to imagine what the Nikoloz Tskitishvili’s might become if they “put it all together”, but drafting a known entity like Caron Butler just seems to make more sense to me.
In 2002, Kiki Vandeweghe liked the “upside” more however, and he has since been fired as GM of the Nuggets and the Nets- where he drafted a high upside shooting guard named Terrance Williams over more proven commodities like Tyler Hansborough, Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, and Taj Gibson. Williams will be on his 4th NBA team next year, most likely on a minimum contract, while the other four are key contributors on playoff teams.
This post is not meant to be an indictment of Kiki Vandeweghe, but rather an example of what can happen when the Boom or Bust guy goes bust. But what if they go boom? Well, that happens just enough to keep the trend going, obviously. If the boom or bust guys always busted, the league would have caught on and there would be no point in having this debate. In fact, in that same 2002 draft, the Nuggets choose a little known player from Brazil name Nene Hilario over guys like Melvin Ely and Marcus Haislip who were very productive in college.
It’s called ‘Boom or Bust’ for a reason- not ‘Bust or Bust’- and sometimes it is necessary to take a risk in order to get more value than expected from your draft position. There is no right answer every single time, in every single circumstance, but for the purpose of this week’s edition, let’s take a look at the guys who are the least risky prospects in the 2012 draft.
1. Anthony Davis
How he fails: Injuries or a drastic shift to the rules on the NBA game.
Admittedly, I would have had Greg Oden as a low risk prospect in 2007, but injuries have derailed his career and there is always a chance that chronic injuries can strike the Unibrow. But aside from that, the only way Anthony Davis completely busts is if Stern decides to use his last years as commisioner to make the NBA more like Baseketball. Psyche outs, no true defense allowed, and inappropriate cheerleading could all minimize his impact on the game.
Outside of those two drastic events happening, there is just no way Davis can fail. His floor is Marcus Camby, and even that is hard to imagine. He already is a better ball handler, a better shooter, better in the low post on offense, and fouls less than Camby ever did. Athletically, Davis and young Camby are on par and Camby is a better high post passer, but Davis gets the check mark almost everywhere else.
Injuries or Rule changes.
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
How he fails: Injuries or Mati taking his ring back.
Again, we can’t predict injuries, and MKG could be an injury prone player throughout his career for the same reasons Dwayne Wade has gotten banged up several times. He just plays so hard on every play and attacks the rim so feriousisly, that he could get undercut, flipped, etc. at any time. Aside from that, the only way he fails is if he somehow loses his greatest skill- his heart (hence, the Mati Captain Planet reference).
Most players love the game and most players give it their all from night to night, but every couple of years someone special comes along that just shows another level of will, heart, and passion. Kidd-Gilchrist is that guy in this draft. A born leader who also loves to be coached, MKG just won’t allow himself to fail and will find a way to impact the game, even if he never fixes his jump shot. If you measure a guy like MKG by PPG or some other out of date statistic, you are missing the point. Instead, think of a more talented version of a guy like Nick Collison, who year after year finishes in the top 10 in categories like plus/minus.
And that’s his floor.
3. Kendall Marshall
How he fails: Miscast
When a guy has an A+ skill set, he rarely (if ever) fails in the NBA. While a guy like that might not become a franchise changer, he gives you a guy on your roster that is a known quantity with a role and most coaches/GM’s will take that. The JJ Reddick’s of the world are limited, but they will always have value in this league, as evidenced by the fact that multiple teams were offering 6-7 million dollar (per year) contracts, which Orlando quickly matched.
Marshall’s court vision and leadership are both A+, and at worst you are looking at a backup point guard who makes the guys on the second unit appear to be far better players than they actually are. Think rookie version Jamaal Tinsley, who averaged 9 points and 8 assists per game, but more likely he becomes Mark Jackson with a ceiling of Ricky Rubio on offense (and still Mark Jackson on defense). He only fails if he is put on a team like the Heat, where he has two other guys dominating the ball, leaving him as a spot up shooter.
4. Austin Rivers
How he fails: Goes to a perenial laughing stock.
Rivers is probably the biggest surprise on the list, but I have racked my brain trying to imagine how he fails and I just can’t do it. He wasn’t a great fit at Duke and therefore didn’t meet expectations, but I saw the same thing happen to Russell Westbrook at UCLA and he turned out alright. I am not comparing the two guys as players, I am just saying that they were both bad fits for their programs because they were volume scorers forced to play for rather conservative coaches. In the wide open NBA game, Westbrook has thrived and so should Rivers.
Rivers is a cerbral player, the son of a great coach, he can get his own shot almost at will, and has enough athletisicm to make plays in the paint- but not too much where it will keep him from working on other aspects of his game. The only way he fails is if he goes to a horrible team that forces him to become the go to guy instead of a role player, much like Kemba Walker has been asked to do for the Bobcats. Outside of that unfortunate situation, I just can’t imagine a scenario in which Rivers isn’t, at the very least, a Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams type off the bench for the next 10-12 years.
5. Jared Sullinger
How he fails: Injuries or unrealistic expectations
It seems to happen every year. We have a talented first or second team All-American come into the draft that has never been anything but productive on the court. The player also displays exemplarary character and leadership, yet he still plummets down draft boards. Why? Because of his measurables. They are undersized or slightly overweight, or can’t jump as high as fellow prospects, and they earn the dreaded label- “below the rim scorer.” Well, what is the last word in that label? SCORER! Who cares how they do it?
In 2003, David West was one of the top three players in college basketball, yet he went 18th behind guys like Reece Gaines and Marcus Banks who had sensational numbers at their workouts. West measured just over 6 foot 9 inches, which was an inch less than ideal for the position. An inch! And his no step vertical was a rather pedestrian 28.5 inches (almost a foot less than Marcus Banks). Yet, West has gone on to have a terrific career, despite the fact that he doesn’t posterize people. Two points is two points.
We saw the same thing happen with DeJuan Blair, Paul Milsap, Carl Landry, and Carlos Boozer. They all fell to the second round because of their size, as guys with better measureables but less production were called up first by the commissioner. And mark my word, it is going to happen again this year, as GM’s will fall in love with Andre Drummond, Perry Jones, and Arnett Moutrie. It is possible that all of those guys will be selected ahead of Sullinger, but Sullinger will get the last laugh when it comes time to sign their second and third contracts.
Of all the bigs expected to go in the top 20, only Anthony Davis had a better PER and only Thomas Robinson had a higher rebound rate- two stats that usually translate well from college to the pros. The fact is that quality players come in all shapes and sizes, and it really doesn’t matter how a player produces, just that he does produce. While Sullinger might never be the perrenial All-Star that people envisioned he could become after his fabulous freshman season, he won’t bust either.
Honorable Mention (and how they fail):
Royce White (fear of flying, immaturity)
Doron Lamb (asked to do too much on bad team)
Andrew Nicholson (can’t learn to defend 3 or 4)
Kevin Jones (doesn’t get regular PT)
– We will have David Thorpe on the podcast tomorrow, so put your question(s) in the comments below. We will focus on:
– Hornets Young Pups and what they need to work on
– Philosophies on why certain players do or don’t develop
– Pros and Cons of prospects in 2012 draft class
Looking to the Future is a weekly column that you can find only on Hornets247.com. For past articles, click here.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1229799-2012-nba-draft-new-orleans-hornets-5-best-options-at-pick-no10 MUST read article for all Hornets fans!
Talking about minimizing risk. We need to sign and trade Eric Gordon. Giving EJ a max deal is far more "riskier" than drafting both Andre Drummond and Perry Jones III with both of our 1st round picks.
Topics for podcast: Thomas Robinson vs. Gill-Christ (Hornets 1st round pick) Thomas Robinson review Dragic (as a future Hornet) vs. Kendall Marshall
You think we are going to amnesty/trade/lose Okafor. I strongly think we will not be high bidder for Kaman. This ( lack of C's ) is the central fact of our draft/offseason player acquisition needs. With an 85% chance of getting someone other than Davis, where does that leave us? I also like MKG, but with Ariza & Aminu, does SF need compare to our need for a C ? Marshall also seems like a good idea, but with JJ & Vasquez, PG needs seem covered. If we get Davis or Drummond with our 1st pick, I wouldn't mind Marshall or Rivers with our second, but a big man is the known need and 2 of them on cheap rookie contracts seems to work real well. LOVE Sullinger with our 2nd pick, think he could do some real damage down low ( pun intended ). Trades could change this. WWDD?
I disagree with minimizing risk. You do your due diligence and than trust your gut. Being conservative isn't wrong per sa his job is on the line after all. However "minimizing risk" sounds to me like take the safe choice instead of taking the guy he feel will be the best player. We need stars and superstars not more role players.
Questions: - Hornets currently have 5 lottery picks on their roster and there are 2 more on the way. Do you think the Hornets can become a contender by 2015? [Gordon (2008-7th), Aminu (2010-8th), Henry (2010-12th), Kaman(2003-6th), Okafor (2004-2nd)] - Irving became the only 2011 top10 draft pick that played significant minutes as a starter. Can you name the top-3 2012 draftees that you think are the "most ready" for the Hornets to immediately contribute and may become a starter? -Young players like Vasquez, Henry, Aminu and Smith saw significant minutes and got a lot of experience in 2011-2012. Assuming they will all come from the bench next season, How would you rate and rank the Hornets bench for next season?
I am starting to see knowledgeable people warm to the idea that we take Kendall Marshall with the 10th pick, assuming we keep the pick, which I am fine with. I would love to know what free agents Thorpe would sign, and for what contract terms, (including our own free agents) if he was the Hornets GM? Who the Hornets should draft assuming we pick at 3 and 10 in the 1st round? Also, Thorpe's opinion on Sullinger (who I like), where he will be drafted and why? (He may have to make assumptions about draft order.)
I somewhat agree with you that we should target potential superstars. However, this is a very strong draft and there are many potential stars for the top 10 picks. Any one of them can be a superstar with years to come! So, the question is: Would you rather pick Drummond who could become a Bynum or Cousins which is pretty good to have, but who could also become Thabeet and fade away OR Would you rather pick a player like Marshall or Sullinger that you know will be a solid contributor, potentially a star. Here is what I think: Especially if we are not busting another season pursuing more lottery picks in the 2013 draft, then we need solid contributors! Why? Because, We might not have anymore lottery picks if we can keep Gordon and sign a couple of important free agents. That will put us in the playoff race. Out of lottery! So, since We are not starting from scratch, we'd better get solid stars rather than wasting a very valuable pick with a Bust. Or course, the GM and the coach should evaluate the potential of a player much better than We do. They are going to be the ones calling the picks :)
The biggest "can he" player I can think of this year is Andre Drummond. But his dilemma is his work ethic, which some believe he won't work to the next level. I'm not sure you want to draft on potential if it's questionable the player will even put in the time to develop (i.e. a potential locker room cancer). Also see Demarcus Cousins. Incredible skill set, but a lack of anger management (although Drummond is more Bynum than anything I think)
I mean my feeling is that one should always draft on production. It's not as much safe, I think, as it is smart. You identify what carries over to pro play and draft accordingly. Sullinger and Denmon are very productive and will be overlooked by GMs that have trouble telling good info from bad. I kind of feel like the team's competition is not with the other losing teams for the chance to pick first, but with the well-run organizations of the league no matter what number they pick at. My thinking is who would those GMs pick if they ran this New Orleans team and how can Demps do better. But I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm just kind of tired of seeing the same names on repeat in every draft write-up (I don't mean just here) when these guys can't all be future NBA stars AND there is lots of talent in college and overseas that is being overlooked ...
Not only those guys, but he seemed to imply that Okafor would be getting some run there too- which I think is a smart move. If they amnesty Okafor straight off of an injury, the bids won't be that high. But if he can show (even if it is just summer league) that he is healthy, the Hornets can amnesty him and not have to pay as much salary. A Summer league team with Vasquez, Henry, Aminu, Anthony Davis, and Zeller could go undefeated! #1972Dolphins
Oh ok. Maybe I misinterpreted his analysis with work ethic. I agree with you completely, especially a top 5 pick in this purported deep draft. The thing is Gordon is a playmaker (need to lock him up and hope he doesn't get injured haha), so as long as we can pick up a nice second option player, that'd be pretty gravy.
I haven't read anything that questioned Drummond's work ethic. From my understanding it was that he just didn't play with effort for what ever reason. Drummond aside. The point I'm trying to make is with a top 5 pick getting a solid role player is equally as bad as drafting a bust. The league is litter with(and this team more specifically) players that filled with role players. What the league is short on is difference makers. So I think it's a better philosophy if in doubt to swing for the fenses.
I get you. However what I hear about Drummond is that he is an NBA project. He has physical tools but needs a lot of development. My thinking is that heading into the NBA, every prospect is going to have to learn how to adapt to a level of play where everyone is 'elite'. A lack of skills just makes the team's and the player's job that much harder AND there are other players that can come in and contribute sooner. Any other line of work no one is trying to take the project employee on. You lose time and money without guarantee of success.
If Denmon and Sullinger are drafted using the number 4 and 10 picks I will cry. I have an irrational like of Drummond, I think he will be a great player. If we let Drummond go to Portland and he develops into the player I think he will, that will be one scary team.