Hornets’ Lottery Probabilities 2

Published: April 19, 2012

Just what are our chances in the NBA Draft Lottery now?

A little over two weeks ago, we brought you a look at the Hornets draft lottery situation, calculating a range of probabilities for some situations of interest.

At 19-43, the Hornets are last in the West with 4 games left to play. Charlotte has the top lottery slot locked up, but the Hornets can still theoretically fall into a wide range of slots. The most likely positions are 3-5, possibly with a tie. In the event of a tie of t teams in terms of final record, the average number of combinations for the t slots that are appropriate for those teams is assigned to each team, with the number of combinations that do not get distributed evenly being assigned randomly. Given the logjam in the Hornets’ record strata, this is a realistic outcome.

We ignore this for now, continuing with our bounding strategy. We’ll release the final probabilities once all the teams are slotted, as a tie elsewhere in the standings affects teams’ chances at draft picks below 1.

At 25-38, the Timberwolves have three games left to play and are likely to finish in the ninth or tenth slot, though more are mathematically possible at this point.

Further details can be found in the linked post above.

Single Top X Pick: The following table shows the ranges of the probabilities for the Hornets having at least one pick in the top X. The range is defined by the likely final ranks listed above, ignoring the possibility of a tie. This includes the effects of both picks and allows for both picks coming in.

[table id=25 /]

For example, if the Hornets have the third slot and the Timberwolves have the ninth slot, there is a probability of 0.511 of getting at least one top 3 pick. This drops to 0.324 if the slots are the fifth and tenth.

If the Hornets fall into slot s, then they are more likely than not to get at least one pick in the top s, a fact which is not true with only one draft pick.

They also have a probability of at least 0.90 of getting at least one top 6 pick, and at least 90% chance of a top 5 pick if their own draft slot is 3.

Double Top X Pick: The following table shows the ranges of the probabilities for the Hornets having both picks in the top X. The range is defined by the likely final ranks listed above, ignoring the possibility of a tie.

[table id=26 /]

These results are largely driven by the Timberwolves’ lottery slot, with both the 0.50 and 0.90 cut point being equal to their draft slot.

We’ll send out an update at the end of the season or if the situation changes dramatically.