Great article, Mason. Let me start out by saying I agree that Mek is playing much better offensively this season, and I appreciate what he's contributed to the organization since he's been in nola. That being said, I think he still needs to get more aggressive on the defensive end. Let's face it: He looks downright soft at times. I've been a diehard Hornets fan for 5 or 6 years now, and one of my biggest concerns about the team's future is whether we can ever develop into the team we want to be with Mek in the 5 spot. Obviously, having Davis or Drummond fall into our lap might make the issue moot, but what's your opinion on Mek fitting into the team's future as we rebuild?
« Hornets’ Chris Kaman Will Return to Active Duty
Looking to the Future: Diamonds in the Rough »
Emeka Okafor’s Offense: Why the Box Score Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story
Mason looks beyond the simple box score stats to examine the strides that Emeka Okafor has taken towards improving his offensive ability in a season when his scoring is needed more than ever.
The general consensus of most of us here at Hornets247 regarding Emeka Okafor has been a feeling of pleasant surprise in regards to his scoring ability this season. Once the Chris Paul trade went down, I personally worried considerably about what it would do to Mek’s offensive production. He’s never had that great of a post game, and a lot of his great looks were due to Paul putting him in position to be successful. With Paul gone, I wondered at times how Okafor would find ways to contribute offensively apart from put-backs on offensive rebounds.
Well, it appears that he was one step ahead of us all along, and already figured out the solution in the form of a vastly improved short-range jumper. If you look at his season averages in the common stat categories, however, nothing really jumps off of the page for Emeka when compared to the rest of his career. Why is that? In this column, I take a look at what Okafor is doing better, why it hasn’t directly resulted in improved numbers overall, and then determine what has to happen for him to ultimately achieve those better numbers.
To determine whether or not the shooting percentages back up the eye test on Okafor, I paid a visit to Hoopdata.com to get some more detailed statistics. There, I was able to look at his field goal percentage from varying distances from the hoop. The results? The numbers MORE than back up what most of us have been thinking. Before this season, Emeka never shot above 45% when shooting 3-9 feet from the rim; in fact, last season, he made a career-worst 34.9% of his attempts from this distance. Through this season’s first 23 games, Okafor is shooting an amazing 55.2% from 3-9 feet, not only demolishing his previous career high, but also good for 4th in the NBA among centers averaging at least 20 minutes per game. That is not just a moderate improvement; it’s honestly pretty incredible.
His improvement isn’t just limited to those short-range jumpers and hook shots, either. Without Paul feeding Oak perfectly in the paint, it was reasonable to expect that his numbers right at the rim (inside of 3 feet) would take a hit as well. Instead, he’s making 76.1% of his attempts from that distance, despite never shooting above 70% inside of 3 feet in any previous season.
Better Shooting = Career High Numbers… Right?
Given the data above, it seems natural to assume that Okafor would be posting career highs in both field goal percentage and PER; however, this is not the case. The reason is because of two main factors – free throw percentage and shot volume at the rim. Let’s tackle the easy one first – free throws (this piece only affects PER, not FG%). Over the course of his career, Okafor has made between 55% and 60% of his attempts at the line every season. This year, however, he is inexplicably shooting just 45.2% from the line while attempting a career low 2.7 free throw attempts per game. If he can simply get back to his career average free throw percentage, his PER should see a slight boost.
The reason his PER would only see a minimal boost from improving his FT% is due to the fact that he is getting there under 3 times per game. The cause for that dip is directly correlated to the second previously mentioned problem – his shot volume at the rim. In Charlotte, Okafor was averaging about 5.5 attempts per game from inside of 3 feet. In New Orleans before this season, he was taking about 4.5 per game from that distance. This season, that number has fallen all the way to 2 per game. My first instinct, given the departure of CP3, was that a substantial downgrade at PG could be the reason for his lack of easy looks inside. However, Raymond Felton didn’t help Okafor’s game in Charlotte any more than Jack has in New Orleans this season, so I think we can safely rule that that theory out. Next, I wondered if he is getting less put-backs from offensive rebounds, but his offensive rebound rate is pretty much right in line with his career averages, so that’s not it. So…
Why isn’t he getting the same looks?
After running through those two possibilities along with a few others, I arrived at the suddenly obvious answer. Okafor’s volume of shots at the rim are down as a result of the way in which opposing teams defend the Hornets. For the first time in Emeka Okafor’s career, the main threat for the team on which he plays can be found in the front court. In Charlotte, the Bobcats’ primary weapons were on the wings with Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace. In New Orleans, the primary threat was the pick-and-pop ability of Chris Paul and David West. Both scenarios gave Okafor plenty of room to operate in the paint, earning him some decent looks inside.
Unfortunately (for Mek, the Hornets, and the fans), things are quite different this season. The Hornets don’t have any real outside scoring threat, and opposing teams are taking advantage by packing the paint to stop New Orleans’ best chance at scoring. Want more proof? Okafor has historically been assisted on about 70% of his shots at the rim; this season, that number is hovering just above 50%. Not only is he taking those shots less, he has to create them himself because the rim is typically so well defended. To put it simply, opponents are making it harder on Emeka to score than ever before because they just don’t have anyone else worth directing their attention towards around the perimeter.
Is there an attainable solution?
Outside of a few elite big men in this league, the vast majority would have similar trouble as Okafor scoring inside with such little help to draw defenders out of the paint. Given that fact, the simplest solution to getting him more room to operate down low is – surprise, surprise – the return of Eric Gordon. The Hornets need a player who will really make teams sweat from the outside in order to divert attention away from the basket, and he is the kind of player who will accomplish just that. Once Gordon returns and forms a threatening back-court duo of scorers with Jarrett Jack, Okafor will likely be able to find space down low more frequently, and the amount of shots he attempts (and converts) at the rim should increase. Until then, expect to see Emeka take what he can inside, continue to impress with his recently added effective short-range jumper, and make a little improvement at the free throw line as well. Don’t let his overall numbers fool you – Okafor doing more with less for his team offensively than he ever has before.
All of this is great and I agree he has improved. However there's no way we should be looking to keep Okafor. He is 29 and finally starting to play above par. Even with his improvements he's no anchor on either side of the ball. If we are going to turn this team around it won't happen quickly if we let Mek play out his contract.
Well, mek played power forward in charlotte, and he didnt even have a good close range shot back then. If we decide to keep him for the future, why dont we play him at power forward since he's an undersized center and he's finally developed a shot? He will just out muscle every power forward he matches up against, and he'll have a pretty decent height advantage most nights. He's also an athletic and agile defender for a bigman so he shouldnt have a problem sticking with most power forwards. If we dont end up with the first pick (which will most likely be anthony davis), we should draft andre drummond who is an insanely athletic but raw center with gobs of potential (i know some of you may be sick of that word by now). Pair him with oak and eg10, and we got a pretty nice inside-out game.
Watch Emeka move around. Then watch Carl move around. Then watch the bad guys' power forwards move around. It's not his height that determines that he can or can't be a center. It's that the way he moves determines whether he can or can't play power forward, at least at level with will justify $14.5m more than him playing center (starting in 1.5 seasons). For reference, Emeka is 6'10". Dwight is 6'11". Therefore, is Dwight is a borderline center in terms of height, the Emeka is no more than an inch undersized. If Dwight is not marginal in stature, the Emeka is even less undersized. So, how undersized is he?
we do need to keep mek a lil more i mean the guy was a good solid ball player for the bobcats i mean the years he was here the offense ran threw 2 people d west and cp3 with these 2 gone mek is trying to fill the gaps but if he can develop a better post game and be a little more stronger when he goes to the rim he will be alright just need to get him a good pg that can help clear out space and get him better looks at the basket
They don't run any offense through him. I don't think I've ever seen a play drawn up for Mek. Thats why his scoring numbers have been down since he came over from Charlotte.
I would expect higher volume to pull more defense and lower rates due to the shots being more anticipated . . . he may be getting the ball more on `mistakes' at the moment than he would be if we just gave it to him, but I'd expect they wouldn't go back to where they were since he's essentially the `big dog' in the front court, a position filled by D West before . . . offense set up for Chris and D, and whatever-your-name-is can fit in here . . . now Emeka gets his spots, yeah? If it starts happening, we'll figure see . . . this is just my game-theoretic look at it.
Yea me too. I mean, Okafor has always been a good basketball player, but not a great one. Because of that I've wondered if it was a simple notion of how the offense was run. A lot of his shots are, like Mason said, smart ones. He only takes what's given, never try's to force anything. Could that be a problem? Could he force things more and by extension produce more in a volume sense? I guess I'm thinking out loud, not sure why, sounds like I'm rambling.
Great article Mason and it answers the big question. I have to say that the offense should be more directed towards him, but maybe an increase in volume might see his numbers fall? That is to say, when he starts shooting more might we see these incredible numbers drop?
Throughout his career, Okafor's shot selection has been pretty strong. He will likely only shoot more if he feels he is getting more open looks, which may not happen until Eric Gordon returns. As long as he maintains that disciplined shot selection, I think he is capable of maintaining those percentages. I'm really excited to see how he performs once Eric Gordon is back in game shape and drawing extra attention from opposing defenses.
Ok, sounds good then. I'm always interested to know why Okafor suddenly dropped off his amount of Field-Goal Attempts when he came onto the Hornets. He had a stellar Rookie Season and things looked up. Instead he's kind of panned out, without increasing his level of production (his efficiency has remained somewhat stellar). I guess I'm interested to see what would happen if his volume increase (while like you said remaining disciplined). He really could be an elite center, but we won't know until he starts attempting more.