Game On: Mavericks at Hornets

By:
Published: March 9, 2011

Matchup: Mavericks(46-17) @ Hornets(37-29)

Off Efficiency: Mavericks 107.9(6th), Hornets 103.3(20th)
Def Efficiency: Mavericks 102.9(11th), Hornets 100.6(6th)

Dallas has Nowitzki, but his numbers aren’t mind-blowing this year. They are deep, but none of their other players except Jason Terry are likely to receive any recognition. (Sixth Man) The Mavs don’t have a top five offense, or a top five defense. Really, the only time they get any national spotlight is when owner Cuban pops off about something. The team itself simply carries on in the shadow of their own owner, winning and relying on the great depth Cuban’s deep pockets has purchased.

One of the prime pieces of Dallas’s arsenal is its ability to knock down the deep two-pointer. They far and away are the best shooters in the league from that distance, hitting shots at a 45.8% clip.(2.2% better than the next best team) Since most defenses are predicated on trying to force the other team into taking that shot, the Mavericks prowess from 20-feet limits the damage caused when forced into that type of shot. They also take advantage of their shooting prowess by taking the 4th highest percentage of three pointers in the league – and knocking them down at a top-10 rate.

For the Hornets to take this game, they will need to extend their defense and stay home on opposing shooters. There isn’t a lot of off the dribble brilliance on this team outside of Jason Terry – so this shouldn’t be a tremendously tall order. As always, the Hornets Defense will be reliable enough to keep them in this game. Will the offense show up?

Injuries:

Hornets: Paul is out, Ariza is probable.
Mavericks: Caron Butler is out. Tyson Chandler should return for the game.

Positional Analysis

PG: Jarrett Jack v Jason Kidd
Advantage: Mavericks
Jason Kidd’s shooting has completely deserted him this year. After two years of career highs from deep, he’s fallen to 36.8% from long range on 5 three attempts per game. Couple that with his inability to get to the rim and abysmal free throw rate(1 free throw attempt per game) and Kidd is posting point per shot numbers in the Trevor Ariza range. Happily for the Mavericks, Kidd is still remarkable at finding the right people in the open court, and is excellent at finding entry passes and lobs for easy scores. Couple that with nice rebounding and steal numbers, and Kidd can still contribute to a team. Jack, on the other hand, has been ripping cord to the tune of 1.5 points per shot over the last two weeks. As a combo guard, once he makes his move, he generally doesn’t find anyone for easy looks, but the reality is backup point guards come in two flavors: Those that score and don’t pass much – and those that pass and don’t score much. You can’t get both, because if they did both, they wouldn’t be available as back-ups.

SG: Marco Belinelli v Jason Terry
Advantage: Mavericks
Rodrique Beaubois will start here, but Terry has been getting 32 minutes to Roddy’s 16. So let’s compare the actual minute-getters. Terry remains an offensive sparkplug, but the sparks are growing a bit dim in his 32nd year, as he’s posting his career low in efficient scoring. It doesn’t matter much, though, as his job is to not only take shots, but create them for his team-mates, and he does so with some skill. Marco, on the other hand, has been freed from splitting time with two other shooting guards, and with those consistent minutes has been getting more and more comfortable and been knocking down shots at pretty much the same clip Terry does.

SF: Quincy Pondexter v Shawn Marion
Advantage: Mavericks
Again, Peja Stojakovic starts for the Mavs, but gets minutes in the teens while Marion plays most of the game. Marion is a nice utilitarian piece. He doesn’t score that efficiently, but he rebounds, passes, rarely makes mistakes and is a solid defensive player. With Quincy, I’ll probably be struggling to remember two plays he took part in.

PF: David West v Dirk Nowitzki
Advantage: Mavericks
Dirk is having one of his worst seasons when it comes to rebounds, blocks, and steals. It matters little though, as he’s having one of his best seasons knocking down shots at an efficient clip. The big german generates 1.47 points per shot, and almost never turns the ball over. West, by way of comparison, produces 1.27 points per shot, and though he is better than Nowitzki at rebounds, blocks and steals, the numbers are so close as to be nearly insignificant. Now – in the past, it is true that West has done well against the Mavericks, but this year, he’ll most likely be guarded by . . .

C: Emeka Okafor v Tyson Chandler
Advantage: Mavericks
These two big men produce numbers that are a close mirror of one another. Until you look a little closer. Okafor gets nearly five more minutes per game, an Tyson Chandler is scoring an otherworldly and league-leading 1.8 points per shot. Okafor is no slouch, but if a team has capable enough passers to hit Tyson when he’s in the right spot, Chandler is nearly unstoppable. Then, of course, there’s the defensive side of the ball. Both are great defenders – but Chandler is simply a little more versatile. Do you want Okafor chasing power forwards out to the three point line? He’d be destroyed off the dribble. Chandler, however, is capable of doing that. And he’ll do that to David West, and West will not have an easy time scoring on his old buddy.

Bench
Jose Juan Barea, Roddy Beaubois, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson v
Carl Landry, Willie Green, Aaron Gray, Jason Smith
Advantage: Mavericks
Barea is a superb back up point guard. No, he’s not a terrific scorer, but he’s great at breaking down a defense and finding the open shooter – and he’s got options on this team. Beaubois is just coming back from injury, but is already starting to show the knack for scoring he displayed last year. Stojakovic has been bad, but he’s still dangerous, and Brendan Haywood is massively overpaid, but if you can look past that, provides decent backup minutes at center. Stevenson can hit threes and defend. The Hornets, without Jack providing scoring off the bench, can’t quite match the firepower of the Mavs lineup. Landry and Willie are decent, but they need that third weapon to be as dangerous as what the Mavs bring the fight.

Enjoy the game, and hope Paul is well enough to play. If he does, the dynamics of this game shift wildly, and the Bench and PG spots swing in favor of the Hornets.  That can be enough with only thin margins at the SG, PF and C currently going the Mavs way.

130 comments
Tiger_504
Tiger_504

:( I can't believe I went to the casino instead of watching this game. I was looking at updates on my ESPN app the whole time though. Oh well, We beat cuban and his mavericks and I won $220 at the casino. "Today was a good day" (Ice Cube voice). I'm really proud of the hornets. They almost beat a good bulls team and beat the mavericks tonight without cp3. Gotta love it.

MaxJD_Nola2NYC
MaxJD_Nola2NYC

WOW, this has to be the best win and most meaningful win to win against such a good team without our star point guard! I would pay to see the look on Marc Cuban's face after we stole that from DALLAS hahaha hes such a douche bag

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

temper expectations. Dallas was never really an elite team. They are really more of a 4-6 seed masked as a 2 seed than anything else. I would love to get them as our first round matchup. I don't want to be a hater but where is the "Monty is an assistant coach being paid like a head coach" chants? I'd love to see haters when we're winning. Sorry if i'm like this after a big win, but i just hate fans who don't support their teams through the joys and tears. They either love them when they're winning and disregard them when they're losing or hate them when they're losing and disregard them when they're winning. Great win! Hopefully Cp3 sees that this is the deepest Hornets team he's ever had. Deep enough to make some noise in the playoffs. A starting 5(and yes that includes Belly in there) that can go against any starting 5 plus 2 bench players capable of being GREAT role players and a slew of role players that have specific roles: Green and Mbenga - defensive purposes(loved his tenacious defense at one point) Gray - rebounding/big man lineup purposes Andersen/Smith - big man spacing purposes Keys to a better 2011-12(if no extended lockout) A NEW LOCAL OWNER ,one more reliable bench player(unknown) , an improved Belly(which i think is plausible given the adjustment period Okafor had with this team), an improved Monty(plausible), and a resigned David West and Carl Landry(one resigned is plausible, two is more unlikely)

Just A Fan
Just A Fan

I just posted right above you. And my statement still stands...Monty most definitly is an overpaid assistant coach.

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

ok dude. you're going to eat your words in 2 years.

Chuck
Chuck

I couldn't disagree more with the assertion that Dallas is a fake #2 seed. I think they legitimately could win the West. We've seen them beat the Spurs in the playoffs before. I think even without Butler they're easily the deepest team in the West when healthy (except maybe Denver now) and they have the best closer in the West in Dirk (not counting tonight). I do agree that I'd love to see them in the playoffs though. I think the Hornets just have a psychological edge over them. I don't think this win will get a lot of national attention, but it really should. How many teams could not only beat the Mavs without their best player, but come back from 7 down in the final minute to do so? GREAT WIN

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

i just noticed that OKC has a lower PD than Dallas. didn't expect that. anyway still, Dallas is a fringe contender. One capable of making some playoff noise but, ultimately unable to break through the 2nd round. It's okay if we disagree. I'm not mad or anything, just continuing a discussion. you can counter if you like.

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

my assertion that Dallas is not really a 2nd seed is based not only on the eye test(they seem to depend on Dirk too much same way as the Hornets depend on CP3 too much) and the fact that they only have a +3.92 Point differential for the season(which is according to historical data researched by John Hollinger is a good indicator of playoff success). I see them as the 3rd seed, possibly 4th if OKC surges.

Monty'sDoghouse
Monty'sDoghouse

Umm, guess what? Even if they are a 4-6 masked as a 2, we could still see them in the first round of the playoffs. I'd LOVE to see us throw a game or 2 to get that matchup if it comes down to that. Tell them. Here we come bitches. We hate your ass. Their is a definitive hatred boiling between the Bees and Mavs right now and I'm straight loving it. Amazing win. Amazing crowd.

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

YEAH i'd love to see Dallas in the playoffs. If they are STILL the 2nd seed, i'd be ok if the Hornets drop a few games to get to them in the 1st round. If they get the 3rd seed(which i think is the most possible scenario), i'd love it if the Hornets could win that 6th seed. anything to get Dallas in the 1st round. That way, not only do we go to the 2nd round, we can also see the look in Cuban's eyes as he cries foul over the loss of his majority owned team to a team he owns 1/28th of. HAHAHAHA. great call MD! :D

CP3nBrees
CP3nBrees

Was Cuban in the game? I wish he was so I can see that face he displayed in 2008 playoffs LOL!!!

Just A Fan
Just A Fan

Great win for the Hornets!!!! The crowd was live at the Hive. It was louder than it has been in a very long time. We haven't had this much energy since Marcus got traded. Good job FANS !!!!

Nick Malone
Nick Malone

I feel like dancing right now! *Puts on some Herbie Hancock and some "Ready or Not"* I had a feeling going into this game that after the way they played against Chicago that the defense would show up tonight. Also with it being the debut of the Bee-Zanies! how could the Hornets disappoint their home faithful? I watched each clanked shot off the hands of Trevor Ariza, saw the dumb fouls towards the end on Tyson Chandler and helping Dirk get to the line but with each play, the Hornets kept on fighting and kept on fighting and with the clutch play of Belli tonight (PASS THE PASTA!) and Jarret Jack having the game of his life (Like he took the body and skills of CP3) against Dallas and willed this team to victory! I had my CP3 jersey, rooting all the way from Long Island tonight and was proud to call myself a Hornets fan. This is the kind of win that propels a team like New Orleans to really get on a roll and keep up on the defense especially with a bad Sac-town team rolling into town (even with MT5 returning). I thought for sure that once this game had reached to 89-81, and dirk got to the line for the three point play that this game was over but after a clutch three from Belli, and then a few defensive stops later, the Hornets find them selves on a 12-3 run and win it! The play that saved this game for them was Jack keeping the deflected ball in play and I loved his play tonight. Jarret Jack got player of the game honors for me and I'm glad we have him on this team. Thanks Toronto :-)

42
42

Good man, love from the East coast.

mbdtf
mbdtf

A video of the whole like last minute would be amazing

thekeymaster
thekeymaster

OT: but has anyone been following MT5s stats with Sac-town? he's putting up great numbers 20ppg 3 reb 2 ast 2 stls on 46% FG and 48% 3pt FG in about 33 mins a night. Good for marcus, but he is playing for a terrible team and i'm sure at this point in the season the management is letting the players do whatever so that they can see who to keep in the off season. it'd be nice though if the hornets could pick him back up in the off season (wishful thinking, doubt he'd want to come back and i think the results would be similar). although he'll probably get offered a nice contract by someone other team.

L_REAZY
L_REAZY

If you didn't love the Hornets before, you will after this win! These are the type of games that make you fall in love with this team, and NBA basketball ... period!!! Defining moment at the end of the game ... Monty Williams chest bumping with David West! How many times did Scott or Bower show that type of passion with the players? This is no longer a team ... the HORNETS are a family now!!!! Great win!!!!!!!!!!!! L_REAZY

42
42

Reazy, every line is pure truth man! Keep it rolling!

since88
since88

I was despondent through much of the second half, barely able to watch as we kept cutting it to 4 or 5 before it ballooned back to double digits. I was sure we were toast. A surreal feeling win, go bugs.

Hordan
Hordan

When the score looked grim I said, "That's it, we lose this game, no playoffs, its over." BUT WE WON! I HAVE HOPE!

mbdtf
mbdtf

WIN OF THE SEASON

rmorales07
rmorales07

HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP DATTTTTTTT..... THIS JUSTT THE BEGGININGG OF A LONGGG RUNN BABYYYY

QueenBee
QueenBee

Yeah Cuban is p*ssed off right about now. LOL!

42
42

Queen . . . where were you?!?! I had to keep up your end, lady!

QueenBee
QueenBee

I'm sorry 42. I was over at Hornets.com following their chat tonight.

42
42

Ha! Just messing.

Chuck
Chuck

Looks like for Lent, the Hornets have given up losing...anyone? Anyone?

42
42

Nice. We can still lose on Sundays . . . too perfect . . .

cp3pdx
cp3pdx

That last shot of Jack pumping his fist as the horn sounded... I could watch that on repeat for the rest of my life and still get chills every time. I LOVE THIS TEAM

JCS
JCS

Big Win

42
42

Very much so.

edbballin504
edbballin504

I WANT DALLAS IN ROUND ONE...THEY THINK THEY ARE TOUGH BUT WE WILL SHOW THEM WHO'S THE BULLY IN A SERIES! Would love to see the look on Cuban's face after our 4th win! hahahaha!

42
42

Say it again, Ed!

42
42

Hey, Dallas . . . I made some red beans tonight . . . come get some!

kempleton
kempleton

WHAT A WIN! GEAUX HORNETS! MESS WITH TEXAS! :)

nikkoewan
nikkoewan

what a bad time NOT to have a Live Chat. OH WELL. Marco is awesome. Our team is the best its ever been. HORNETS WIN! HORNETS WIN! HORRRRNEEEEEEEEETSSSSSS WIN

edbballin504
edbballin504

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! WE WONN! I LOVE ITTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!

42
42

VICTORY!!!!!!

Ludiculous
Ludiculous

YEAAAHHHHHHH LETS GO BEE-FENSE!!!!

42
42

3 of 3. 1 pt lead. They have timeouts. No foul to give. 8.4 seconds. This is thrilling!

42
42

2 of 3. Tie. Stand up and get crunk . . . Here we come to get you . . .

42
42

1 of 3.

edbballin504
edbballin504

PLEASE MAKE THEM ALL JACK SO WE CAN STEAL THIS GAME! C'MONNNNNNNN!

42
42

Attack the basket, use the clock. Foul! 3?

42
42

I'm going full-on QueenBee for the last possessions!