Game On: Hornets @ Nuggets


Matchup: Hornets(21-16) @ Nuggets(20-15)

Off Efficiency: Hornets 102.5(19th), Nuggets 107.7(6th)
Def Efficiency: Hornets 100.1(6th), Nuggets 106.1(22nd)

The Rumors are flying fast and furious these days as the Nuggets have now tried to include both Cleveland and the Pistons as facilitators in the trade with the Nets for Carmelo Anthony.  It feels like the deal is closer than it has been in several months, and maybe that explains why the Nuggets have dropped back to back games against the cellar-dwellar Clippers and Kings.  Neither of those games were even really close either, with the Nuggets losing by 20 in each.

Now, I do need to caution you on this one.  The Nuggets have been up and down all season long, and their defense is one of the worst in the league, so blowouts aren’t that shocking here and there when a team relies entirely on its offense.  Still, if the transaction is close – and it includes Billups like it the rumors say it does – it’s not shocking the team might be struggling.

So the Hornets get an up and down team when they have a lot of off the court distractions.  Let’s hope their offense is going enough that they can take advantage of it.

Injuries:
Nuggets:
  Kenyon Martin is still out.
Hornets:  None

Positional Analysis

PG: Billups v Paul
Advantage: Hornets
1.61.  That’s Chauncey Billups points per shot so far this season.  .416.  That’s Billups shooting percentage.  The former is why Billups deserves every plaudit and compliment he’s ever received.  The latter is why people who don’t understand advanced statistics can’t give Billups the credit he deserves. 

His shooting percentage never seems terribly high, because he takes a lot of threes, and he gets his edge scoring off free throws and hitting every damn one he gets.  To put that efficiency in perspective, it’s the 12th best in the league.  And yes, it’s 7 spots better than Paul.  So why give Paul the advantage?  Because being a Point Guard is so much more than efficiently scoring on your opponent, and while Billups is a solid, nearly mistake-free point guard, he also doesn’t see the floor as you’d want, doesn’t set up his team perfectly, and his defense has become a step slow.

SG: Afflalo v Belinelli
Advantage: Nuggets
I mentioned in the podcast that Afflalo would be someone I’d love the Hornets to pursue.  This season, his shooting has improved greatly, he averages 1.38 points per shot, drills threes, finishes his free throws, and plays solid defense.  To me, he’s Belinelli with more consistent shooting and more than a passing familiarity with rebounding.  Belinelli’s only advantage is slightly better defense and better passing.  That’s not enough, though.

SF: Anthony v Ariza
Advantage: Nuggets
Anthony has never been a world-beater when it comes to efficient shooting, and this season he’s still hovering slightly below David West territory.  Still, he’s effective enough on that end, when he really focuses, he can get himself good, easy shots, and he rebounds well.  Ariza gave him fits in the first game of this season, but I still have little faith that Ariza’s offense will show up enough to make this matchup anything but a runaway in Denver’s favor.

PF: Sheldon Williams v West
Advantage: Hornets
Sheldon’s pretty bad.  He’s a nice rebounder, but he gets stuffed more often than Okafor(that’s saying something), and is a bit undersized and relies on strength.  When West meets other undersized power forwards who rely on strength rather than speed, he’s typically going to feast.  Sheldon usually plays few minutes in favor of Harrington, but I have high hopes for Fluffy tonight.

C: Nene v Okafor
Advantage: Even
While Nene is also one of the most efficient scorers to step foot on the NBA hardwood, finishing at the rim on pick and rolls with viciousness, he does have some major problems that makes him draw even with Okafor.  He’s an awful rebounder for a center.  In fact, out of 50 centers in the league, he ranks 37th on the boards in rebound rate.  So expect him to dunk a lot, but Okafor should be able to keep him off the glass – and Nene’s advantage over Okafor in efficient paint scoring is that tremendous.(You know, I’d love to have Nene on the Hornets, though.  Paul needs a Pick and Roll finisher so bad – and Nene and Paul could be as nasty as Nash and Stoudemire was)

Bench
Al Harrington, Chris Anderson, Gary Forbes, JR Smith, Ty Lawson
vs
The Usual Suspects

Advantage: Nuggets
When it comes to second units, the Nuggets have four of the best five players.  Anderson is a prime backup big man, Forbes and Harrington can hold down the forward spots admirably, with Harrington being starter quality, and Ty Lawson is the best point guard off the bench in the league.  Basically, I just hope JR Smith goes into stupid mode and makes this easier than it should be.

Could be a fun one!  Talk it up in the Comments!


158 responses to “Game On: Hornets @ Nuggets”

    • i wouldn’t say elite but i was shocked when he said belinelli had the advantage on defense lol rediculous

      • Agree with Ryan here.

        Marco is really underrated as a defender. He’s a pesky little Italian. And he moves his feet REALLY well. Add that to his length, and he has the potential to be good for years to come as a defender.

        If he could just get some consistency, New Orleans would have a STEAL for the money hes being paid.

      • P.S. The same could be said for Thornton if he would learn to play defense the way that Eric Gordon does. Marcus and Eric are the EXACT same size, same athleticism, very similar on offense. Difference? Gordon is a freaking bulldog on defense, and gets into EVERYONE he faces. Go back to last season and watch what he did to Wade. Freaking awesome. Drove him nuts. If Marcus did that, and Belinelli became consistent… We’re a top 3 team in the west EASILY.

      • i wudnt go that far to say a Top 3 team because our lack of size and bench depth but definelty better than we are now

    • There isn’t an elite defender to be found on the Nuggets roster. Afflalo gets that attribution because he takes the other teams best offensive wing, but what did you expect, Carmelo to take him?

      The Nuggets have the 8th worst defense in the league. The Hornets have the 6th best.

      Shooting guards playing when Marco is on the floor earn PERs of 13.3.

      Shooting guards playing when Aaron Afflalo is on the floor earn PERs of 15.3.

      Sorry guys, don’t let your image of Belinelli as a “Soft” European and his offensive inconsistency shadow the fact that Marco is a damn fine defender.

      • I dont think that marco is a poor defender hes just not as good as affalo, i mean stats or no stats just watch them on the court. You said it yourself the nugs have 8th worst defense and id doubt that has anything to do with his matchups scoring more on him due to poor rotations of his teammates. At ucla defense was what affalo was known for, its a ridiculous comparison.

      • I’ve watched them both. The difference is Marco is a lot longer then Aaron is. He alters more shots. Aaron does a better job of not allowing his opposition from catching the ball (something not enough NBA players do and you usually see in college more). But on ball? Marco’s a better defender cuz of his length.

      • they are the same height at 6’5 and have a similar wingspan but you being from cali im sure you have seen more affalo, ive seen affalo lock down and he is known for his d. maybe i can learn something tonite

      • Marco’s a bit taller dude. Kobe’s 6’6, even. Marco was an inch taller than him when he stood next to him against the Lakers. Afflalo is an inch shorter than Kobe. Marco’s long dude. Deceivingly long.

        ALWAYS liked Afflalo. He was a fan favorite at UCLA. He played for Compton Centennial in high school and was a freaking STUD. I think he and Marco are really similar players when it comes to their overall strengths, they just execute them in different ways.

        Afflalo is SOOO a Ben Howland guy. Watch how he chases defenders, and tries denying them from CATCHING the basketball. Thats how he plays defense. Constant denial, with the mentality of limiting the scorers possessions. (Jrue Holiday from Philly was the same, remember how he tried full court pressing CP?)

        Marco’s an on ball defender. Because he’s long, he plays the way Thabo Sefolosha does. When the opposition catches the ball, he places his hand on their face right away, but steps an arms length away. If the player drives, Marco’s already a step ahead because of his length. If a player shoots, Marco just steps forward, keeping his hand in front of the players face to deny them view of the basket.

        Against Kobe/Wade, it doesn’t do much. Those guys are used to it. Against everyone else? It’s pretty effective. Both methods are, just different ways of playing defense.

      • If I’m not mistaken Dell acquired Marco to be a offensive perimeter threat, more so than defensive, but Marco has yet to show that he can be the sharp shooter that Peja was. As for Aaron Afflalo, his efficiency better than his in every metric.

        Aaron Afflalo PER 12.55
        Rank 28
        MPG 35.4
        TS .624
        USG 12.8

        Marco Bellinell PER 11.25
        Rank 37
        MPG 28.4
        TS .548
        USG 17.3

        I say we trade Marco and go for Aaaron come the summer.

  1. I could’ve sworn I saw Kenyon Martin back on the court a few nights ago.

    Our team is in Mile High and probably can’t breathe. LOL! I’m not optimistic.

    GEAUX HORNETS!!!

  2. Unless Kenyon Martin went out again he played right after New Years. If did go out again I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned for the Hornets.

    • He didn’t play last game against the Kings, and according to ESPN.com George Karl said he doesn’t expect Martin (knee) to play Sunday against the Hornets. But yeah, players do tend to come back for Hornets games so I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

      • mbdtf, you noticed that too heh? That players seem to like to come back against the Hornets. And I don’t think they do it because they feel their teams will need the help. They do it because they feel it should be an easy game to come back for.

  3. –“(You know, I’d love to have Nene on the Hornets, though. Paul needs a Pick and Roll finisher so bad – and Nene and Paul could be as nasty as Nash and Stoudemire was)”

    Co-sign. I watched a few minutes of the Nuggets the other day just out of vulture-like curiosity (come on; they’re all doing the same to us!) and liked what I saw of Nene’s offensive game. He has a very, very polished inside and outside game. He only lacks an imaginative point who can get him the ball consistently and not settle for feeding Melo’s ego. In fact, I would argue that CP3/ Nene would be a more devastating combo than CP3/ Melo.

    I was specifically thinking about the obvious problem going forward with the Lakers’ bigs, who kill the Hornets by putting longer arms into a picket fence around the basket, or the Dallas front line, two teams that figure to be likely first round playoff opponents. The disadvantages in the lane spell “one and done.” If the Hornets can’t get another true big (Dalembert, Jordan, etc.), and if a Denver garage sale breaks out, I think the Hornets could contend with Nene.

    Okafor’s limitations in the Hornet’s offense (can’t step out and hit the elbow jumper, no power-dunk ability) would not cramp the team’s style in the crucial fourth quarter, when the morale-crushing sight of a point guard stuffing your center’s attempted dunk often means the difference between winning and losing. Hornets could play the two offense/ defense in the 4th and give the team a real chance at winning the close games that this team always finds itself in.

    • I SOOO agree with you right now Sportnlife. I look back to that Okafor/Chandler trade and it just makes less and less sense to me. Having Chandler right now would be a DREAM for us. But since we don’t, we need to find SOMEONE to bring that can mimic what he did as closely as possible. It’s the gaping hole on this team. More so than the SG spot. If we could somehow nab a good Center and possibly bring Okafor off the bench… We can dream, right?

      • DUDE, give it up. We don’t have the money to let Okafor come off the bench. 12-13m a year for a backup big? LOL

        Also, you have to be kidding me if you are blaming Okafor for our recent struggles. Okafor has been in full on BEAST mode the last 12 games.

        I find it funny when ya’ll bash the Chandler trade when not a single team outside of CHA wanted to touch the guy. after the 08′-09′ season due to serious injury concerns.

      • Cosign with Doghouse

        When Chandler wasn’t on Team Jordan’s DL, he lead the league in illegal screens. At 9 years pro, he makes too many rookie mistakes and lack fundamentals. Now don’t get me wrong, I like the guy so much I follow him on twitter, but if we want that* kind of center back, then we should go for Ryan Hollins or JaVale McGee.

      • Lets see if Chandler can make it through an entire season healthy before we critique trade.

      • Would LOVE JaVale McGee. But I think we’d have to swallow Rashard Lewis’s contract to get him.

  4. OK, on to the positive.

    The Hornets have an amazing chance tonight to showcase themselves to the local public. People are looking for ANYTHING to be happy about after last afternoon’s debacle. I’ve name dropped the Hornets around a couple of Saints sites over the past 24 hours. Every little bit helps.

    Not to mention, this is the team we got embarrassed by in the ’08-’09 playoffs. I would be willing to bet that (THE Embarrassment) was the last game a ton of fair weather Hornets fans cared about.

    Let’s get it done in convincing fashion!

  5. I know we don’t have the money.

    Did you not read the last sentence? “We can dream, right?”. It’s called sarcasm.

    Im not blaming Okafor. The WHOLE TEAM is struggling right now. But Okafor is really a Power Forward dude. He’s not a true Center. He can’t compete with the real Centers in this league. He always struggles against bigger guys.

    And I don’t think you remember dude, a lot of teams were trying to acquire Chandler from the Hornets, including OKC, and the Suns. So I don’t know what you’re talking about there.

    Funny how you bash everyone else who doesn’t think Marcus Thornton is as good as you are dreaming him up to be.

    • The Chandler trade was originally a salary dump before we somehow stole Okafor away. Of course NOW we’d rather have Chandler because he’s healthy, but at the time? That was an excellent trade for Chandler’s value at that point. He was barely healthy at all last season either.

      • I never liked the trade when it went down. I didn’t think Okafor was a good fit next to Paul.

    • oky is a true PF but lucky for us the nba is in desperate need for centers and there are very few centers okafor cant deal with. there are few good 7 footers

  6. LMAO, did you follow the Hornets at all before this season? OKC did trade for Chandler. They gave up a couple of expiring nobodies to the Hornets. Chandler went over to OKC and they took one look at his foot and said “no thanks”.

    But, really, I’m going to stop responding to your nonsense rebuttals. I will trade blows with 42 because I respect his intelligence. You are a spoiled rich kid who insults everyone’s basketball intelligence while spewing out utter nonsense like “Jarrett Jack would start on 20 of 30 NBA teams.” But I bet, in hindsight, that was your little brother on your Hornets247 account.

    Seriously, look at what you type before you type it. You say some pretty moronic things.

    • I’m a spoiled rich kid? LoL. I don’t know how you got that. But thanks.

      And just so you know, I quoted Chris Paul on that.

  7. i hope for all of our sake, Thornton goes for 30 and he never looks back. ESPN projected him to average 17 pts on 45% shooting so he’s gotta to give us big games for that to happen..

  8. Sorry…I don’t think the last agme was a bad game.
    In fact, it was winnablevery late and that’s against a world class team.

    I am also tired of the bench being bashed.
    Be real…Monty was poor at player rotations and matchups.
    He seems to be growing now as a coach.
    IF he continues, the bench will be better as well.This is the NBA…not many teams have the wealth of talent that they can call their benches awesome.
    It’s a lot of money.

    This coming from a Monty critic. I actually blame his coaching staff more than I do him. He’s new. He’s young.
    And I am not sure how much say he had in picking AND paying this staff.

    I say we will win tonight.

  9. Ziko was wrong by a few teams. i think he’s a starter for 7 teams. At the very least- ATL LAC LAL MEM MIN SAC TOR. this is if we’re talking the Jarrett Jack who started 43 games for Toronto in 0809 and 52 games in Indiana in 0708.. not this Jack who’s shooting less than 40% and 20% from 3… not that guy..

    • You listed Toronto. The team that just got rid of him. He wouldn’t start for Memphis or the Lakers btw. Memphis just handed Conley an obnoxious contract and Derek Fisher is exactly what the Lakers need, a veteran presence who doesn’t try to do to much and is clutch..as..balls. The other 4 are “Maybe’s or better”.

  10. Out of curiosity, I am curious about the Melo/CP3 NJN rumors. I’m assuming that New Jersey is going to trade everything but the kitchen sink to get Melo. What makes them think they will have the talent or picks stockpiled to get CP3 too? Am I missing something?

    BTW, I know a lot of you think I am being impatient about Monty’s approach and I probably am. I just don’t think anything short of a trip to the WCF will keep Team Lebron from being able to convince CP3 he wants out. I really believe that our current rotations do not have enough punch to them to be able to accomplish that goal. A bench consisting of Jack/Thornton/Pondexter/Smith/Gray COULD (by playoff time) figure it out in time to make a WCF trip possible. I also believe that we have to develop some sort of consistent offensive scheme by playoff time or our droughts will bite us in the butt.

    It is the reality of the situation. Since when do players control what players get traded to what teams? How are GM’s supposed to be able to build talent around players worthy of an NBA Title? The tides are changing in the NBA. Somehow, Lebron figured out that he holds all the cards as currently constructed and has poisoned the well.

    Bottom Line: WE NEED TO WIN NOW! We need a sold out arena that is capable of giving the team that extra boost. We need our talent sitting on the bench to develop within the next 40 games. Anything else will be the death of basketball in New Orleans in the form of CP3’s Ultimate Departure.

  11. Ok guys, about tonight’s game, we’re pretty familiar with a few players on the Denver Nuggets team but please Hornets, pay attention to Gary Forbes.

  12. I can tell I’m going to have to put Bob & Gil on mute. I don’t think I want to hear the word ‘”Melodrama” all night long.

    • The module that does the automatic moderation has been a little wonky.

      I told the man behind the curtain.

      I was playing the tivo-game with the game and other stuff, so i was behind. When I saw it, I approved you manually. FYI, it seems to happen when you send a couple of quickies, or many when there are multiple comments it’s dealing with at once. I could be out to lunch on that though, as usual.

    • lol i think gil just made a bathroom joke. “he said i guess everything came out” when talking about the bathroom break

  13. If Meka didn’t have to put the ball on the floor all the time, that would’ve been a nice basket for him. Goodness Meka.

  14. bench looked…good…dare i say? stepped up on D and made some shots, especially willie. although i wish thornton would’ve gotten some more time after that nice dribble drive and dish to mek.

  15. Marcus was in with Jack and Green, but hardly touched the ball. Jack and Green were clearly favoring each other, and took bad shots, and imo looked bad. Jack left Afflalo wide open. Don’t think that was Marcus, it wasn’t. Then when Marcus DOES get the ball, he drives to the rim and hands it off to Mek who draws the foul. Even tho Marcus made a play, he gets taken out right after. SMH

  16. Haha! They thought they could ignore CP3’s shot and he knocks the 3 down in their eye.

    Billups with the tech. Is he mad about something?

  17. god these nuggets announcers are such homers, i wish the timberwolves play by play guys would just go national bc IMO they’re the best in the biz.

  18. I agree with Hornets assistant Mike Malone and that they know the Nuggets are going to come out very aggressive cuz they’ve lost 2 in a row and they’ll try to get the crowd into the game. Hornets have to come out ready in the 2nd half.

  19. Ok up by 10+ points at the half against a team thats known for its scoring but no defense with their top scorer in foul trouble and we’re armed with a pretty good defense and we’re versing a team thats in a bad funk.

    If we lose from here it will be worse than the Golden State game IMO.

    • Not to mention they have a couple guys out with the Flu. I have a special place for wins against Denver.

  20. A 10 point lead with 2 quarters to go is NOTHING. The Hornets need to keep playing the way they have or better.

  21. 1st half stats

    FG%
    Hornets 51%
    Nuggets 44%

    Free Throws
    Hornets 9/10
    Nuggets 13/20

    3pt FGs
    Hornets 3/5
    Nuggets 2/7

    Rebounds
    Hornets 21
    Nuggets 15

    Turnovers
    Hornets 4
    Nuggets 5

    Points in the Paint
    Hornets 22
    Nuggets 20

    Second Chance Points
    Hornets 9
    Nuggets 0

    Bench Scoring
    Hornets 19
    Nuggets 10

  22. Marcus must be confused and frustrated, I mean he comes in for 4 minutes, tries hard on defense, doesn’t force any shots up. He drives to the lane and sets up Mek with a good pass then is pulled from the game. But I guess the case can be made that Green has a great first half thoug, and Thornton wasn’t needed. I’d rather see him traded than keep on putting him through this uncertainty.

  23. I’m glad Afflalo missed that 1st shot of the 3rd qtr because he was wide open. Shouldn’t have been that wide open.

  24. so let me get this right the hornets have more points in the paint and have been more aggressive yet they have like half as many FT attempts?

  25. i cant say this any other way GUARD THE THREE. they let this shit happen against golden state like friggin yesterday have they forgot so soon

  26. god these nuggets announcers suck hairy donkey balls, as do these pathetic refs. i know its a big cliche for fans to complain about refs all the time but honestly i don’t think i’ve seen the hornets ever get the majority of calls so far this season.

  27. CP just got 3 fouls in less than 3:00 in 4th. That’s 5 on the game. He goes to the bench, Denver hits a long ball. 7-0 DEN run. Now 81-73.
    7 minutes ago via web

    What a crock of ****!

  28. that lil bitch jr was gettin real rough with david, and d west put him in his place *mc donalds music ba da ba ba baaaa im loving it*

  29. the way these nuggs announcers are complaining it sounds as if denver hasn’t committed a foul all night and the hornets have been shanking every nugget on the court. nothing worse then horribly biased color commentators.

  30. We do deserve this game, we’ve played the better of the the first 3 quarters it shouldnt be all cancelled out by 1 quarter

  31. Good game tonight the whole team played well with a few exceptions. Willie Green needs to realize he’s not a 3pt shooter or the team’s go-to guy. Ariza played good for the most part except when he started shooting outside of 15 feet, he also played good D on Melo but I think most of that was Melo not caring. Emeka did a great job on the boards and besides being too hesitant a few times did well offensively. If he would learn to do a pump fake he would become a much more effective scorer. DWest and CP3 did their thing as usual, and the bench actually played pretty good.
    Only things I can complain about is the sloppy play both offensively and defensively in the 4th and Monty’s short leash with MT5 and Gray, although he did a better job with the rotations and realizing when to call timeouts to slow Denver’s momentum. Hopefully the Hornets can end Orlando’s big winning sterak next!

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